NIESR Discussion Paper

The Effects of Macroprudential Policy on Banks' Profitability

Despite the importance of profitability to banks’ growth and stability, there have, to our knowledge, been no studies which assess the effect of macroprudential regulation on banks’ profitability, a key aspect of the transmission of macroprudential measures. We seek to fill this lacuna with empirical estimates for a sample of 6,010 global banks. These suggest that over 2000-2013, a number of measures of macroprudential policy had a negative and significant effect on banks’ profitability as measured by return of average assets and return on average equity.

The Fed’s enhanced swap lines and new interventions in the Treasury market

In March 2020, the Federal Reserve enhanced its existing swap lines with foreign central banks, and introduced additional temporary swap lines with other central banks, in order to support the smooth functioning of U.S. dollar funding markets during the coronavirus epidemic. The Federal Reserve also announced purchases of US Treasuries and agency mortgage bonds in order to support the smooth functioning of the Treasury and mortgage-backed securities market. We analyse the motivations for and the effects of these measures.

Brexit and the Euro

The year 2019 marked the 20th anniversary of the establishment of the Euro.  It was also the last full year before the UK formally left the European Union. This paper examines the relationship between the UK and the euro area. We look at the economic distance between core and periphery groups of countries which is driven by the level of synchronisation in economic activity.

What does leadership look like in schools and does it matter for school performance?

We consider the role played by school leaders in improving pupil attainment, going beyond previous studies by exploring the leadership roles of deputy and assistant heads and classroom-based teachers with additional leadership responsibilities. Using panel data for state-funded secondary schools in England for the period 2010/11-2015/16 we find academy schools typically employ more staff in leadership roles than community schools.

The evolution of tax implicit value judgements, redistribution and income inequality in the UK: 1968 to 2015

An issue of interest in the literature that explores the drivers of inequality is the distributional bearing of tax and transfer policy, where an important theme concerns changes in the relative treatment of alternative population subgroups.  We develop an empirical approach for quantifying the value judgements implicit in the relative treatment of demographic subgroups by a tax and transfer system.  We apply this approach to UK data reported at annual intervals between 1968 and 2015, documenting remarkable improvements in tax and transfer treatment enjoyed by some population subgroups – pa

A Century of High Frequency UK Macroeconomic Statistics: A Data Inventory

This paper provides an inventory of the available macroeconomic statistics in the UK for the last hundred years or so.  The focus is on documenting the higher frequency (daily, monthly and quarterly) macroeconomic data that are available after the World War 1, rather than longer run annual time series which has been the focus of other collections.  It discusses some of the challenges that need to be overcome in order to create a continuous historical dataset over this period.  The inventory follows the structure of the Economic Trends Annual Supplement (ETAS) that was produced for many year

Below the Aggregate: A Sectoral Account of the UK Productivity Puzzle

We analyse new industry-level data to re-examine the UK productivity puzzle. We carry out an accounting exercise that allows us to distinguish general macroeconomic patterns from sector trends and idiosyncrasies, providing a roadmap for anyone interested in explaining the puzzle. We focus on the UK market sector. Average annual labour productivity growth was 2.5 percentage points lower during the period 2011-2015 than in the decade before the financial crisis that began in 2007.

The Indeterminacy Agenda in Macroeconomics

This article surveys a subset of literature in macroeconomics which embraces the existence of multiple equilibria. This indeterminacy agenda in macroeconomics uses multiple-equilibrium models to integrate economics with psychology. Economists have long argued that business cycles are driven by shocks to the productivity of labour and capital. According to the indeterminacy agenda, the self-fulfilling beliefs of financial market participants are additional fundamental factors that drive periods of prosperity and depression.

Tax Policy for Innovation

A large number of countries around the world now provide some kind of tax incentive to encourage firms to undertake innovative activity. This paper presents the policy rationale for these incentives, discusses their design and potential effectiveness, and reviews the empirical evidence on their actual effectiveness. The focus is on the two most important and most studied incentives: R&D tax credits and super deductions, and IP boxes (reduced corporate taxes in income from patents and other intellectual property).

Some International Evidence for Keynesian Economics Without the Phillips Curve

Farmer and Nicolò (2018) show that the Farmer Monetary (FM)-Model outperforms the three-equation New-Keynesian (NK)-model in post war U.S. data. In this paper, we compare the marginal data density of the FM-model with marginal data densities for determinate and indeterminate versions of the NK-model for three separate samples using U.S., U.K. and Canadian data. We estimate versions of both models that restrict the parameters of the private sector equations to be the same for all three countries.