NIESR Discussion Paper

The Sahm Rule and Predicting the Great Recession Across OECD Countries

We examine the start date of the Great Recession across OECD countries based on two successive quarters of negative GDP growth recession. For most OECD countries this establishes the start of recession in Q22008 or Q32008.

We find that the Sahm Rule identifies the start of recession in the US to the beginning of 2008 but in other OECD countries it identifies the start in almost every case, after that identified by GDP. But the GDP and labour market data are subject to major revisions, so the turn is not apparent in most countries for some time.

Modelling the impact of Covid-19 on the UK economy: an application of a disaggregated New-Keynesian model

We set out a framework that can be used to evaluate policies intended to mitigate the economic effects of Covid-19.  In our framework shocks that affect only certain sectors can spill over to other sectors because of input-output linkages and limited income insurance.  We show that policies such as the furlough scheme can prevent the sharp rises in unemployment that might arise in the absence of the scheme, and illustrate how such policies can be evaluated using the framework. 

Outlier detection methodologies for alternative data sources: International review of current practices

This research has been funded by the Office for National Statistics as part of the research programme of the Economic Statistics Centre of Excellence (ESCoE). This paper was first published in July 2020: “Outlier detection methodologies for alternative data sources: International review of current practices" (

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