NIESR Discussion Paper

Nominal GDP growth indexed bonds: Business Cycle and Welfare Effects within the Framework of New Keynesian DSGE model

We examine the welfare effects of GDP-indexed bonds in a New Keynesian DSGE model. We add to a literature showing that the issuance of GDP-indexed bond may help stabilise public debt and so give more room for countercyclical fiscal policy, by conducting a careful general equilibrium welfare analysis. In a standard DSGE models, where Ricardian equivalence holds, household welfare is immune to the source of government financing. We examine how GDP-indexed bonds, rather than nominal bonds, affect welfare when Ricardian equivalence does not hold.

Distressed Banks, Distorted Decisions?

Exploiting differences in pre-crisis business banking relationships, we present evidence to suggest that restricted credit availability following the 2008 financial crisis increased the rate of business failure in the United Kingdom. But rather than "cleansing” the economy by accelerating the exit of the least productive businesses, we find that tighter credit conditions resulted in some businesses failing despite being more productive than their surviving competitors. We also find evidence that distressed banks protected highly leveraged, low productivity businesses from failure.

A Comparison of Earnings Related to Higher Level Vocational/Technical and Academic Education

We use the earliest cohort of English secondary school leavers with newly available Longitudinal Education Outcomes data (622,000 pupils in 2002/03) to compare earnings of people with higher vocational/technical qualifications to those of degree holders. The unusually rich data allow us to estimate earnings differentials until the age of 30, controlling for a wide array of characteristics and full education trajectories.

The Impact of the Introduction of the National Living Wage on Employment, Hours and Wages

In 2015 the UK government announced the introduction of a new ‘National Living Wage’ (NLW) that would apply to those aged 25 and above from April 2016. At a rate of £7.20, this represented a significant increase of 7.5% over the existing National Minimum Wage (NMW) rate. Previous research has generally found, with some exceptions, that the NMW has raised the earnings of low paid workers, without significantly affecting their employment opportunities.

The Bank Capital-Competition-Risk Nexus - A Global Perspective

The Global Financial Crisis (GFC) highlighted the importance of a number of unresolved empirical issues in the field of financial stability. First, there is the sign of the relationship between bank competition and financial stability. Second, there is the relation of capital adequacy of banks to risk. Third, the introduction of a leverage ratio in Basel III following the crisis leaves open the question of its effectiveness relative to the risk adjusted capital ratio (RAR).

Bank Leverage Ratios, Risk and Competition - An Investigation Using Individual Bank Data

Following experience in the global financial crisis (GFC), when banks with low leverage ratios were often in severe difficulty, despite high-risk-adjusted capital measures, a leverage ratio was introduced in Basel III to complement the risk-adjusted capital ratio (RAR). Empirical testing of the leverage ratio, individually and relative to regulatory capital is, however, sparse. More generally, the capital/risk/competition nexus has been neglected by regulators and researchers.

The Fiscal Theory of the Price Level in Overlapping Generations Models

We demonstrate that the Fiscal Theory of the Price Level (FTPL) cannot be used to determine the price level uniquely in the overlapping generations (OLG) model. We provide two examples of OLG models, one with three 3-period lives and one with 62-period lives. Both examples are calibrated to an income profile chosen to match the life-cycle earnings process in U.S. data estimated by Guvenen et al. (2015). In both examples, there exist multiple steady-state equilibria. Our findings challenge established views about what constitutes a good combination of fiscal and monetary policies.

Monetary and Exchange Rate Policies for Sustained Growth in Asia

The more advanced economies in Asia are experiencing slower growth rates. Structural reforms are the most important policies for keeping growth rates up, but this paper takes the growth slowdown as given and focuses on implications for monetary policy. The key policy implication is the impor­tance of keeping core inflation at or above 2 percent to avoid prolonged periods of economic slack.

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Young people’s education choices and progression to Higher Education; A comparison of A-Level and Non-A-Level students in Key Stage 5, their subject choices and transitions to university

This study analyses students’ choices when leaving Key Stage 4 (KS4) to Key Stage 5 (KS5) for pupils progressing to either academic A-Level or vocational “Non-A-Level” Level 3 programmes. Using school-level data (published by the Department for Education) and linked administrative data, which follow 650,000 pupils leaving English secondary schools in 2009/10 until 2012/13, we describe the educational routes chosen after KS4, i.e. Non-A-Level, A-Level or mixed Level 3 education, and subject specialisation, and explain their association with progression to Higher Education (HE).

Understanding and Confronting Uncertainty: Revisions to UK Government Expenditure Plans

We develop a simple model that motivates fiscal stabilisation policy, in the presence of economic and control uncertainty. An examination of a real-time database of economic variables and forecasts shows that our knowledge of the current and future state of the economy is subject to significant revisions over time. Multi-year government spending plans are also significantly revised over successive fiscal events. We show the risk for any given government expenditure plan by constructing measures of historical expenditure revisions.