NIESR Wage Tracker

Figure 1 - The U-shaped recovery in the labour market (source: ONS, HMRC)

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The U-shape recovery of the labour market

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Underlying wage growth accelerates to 3.8% because of labour shortages in some sectors

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Temporary rise in average wages, but underlying wage growth to stay around 2½ per cent

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No sign of persistent wage inflation despite lower unemployment and higher vacancies

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The economy created more jobs than it lost during the third national lockdown

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The vaccination programme gives the first shots of hope to the labour market, but unemployment to trend up

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Average pay growth to ease after a strong rise in the last quarter of 2020

Compositional effects push up average weekly earnings at the end of 2020

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2020 shaping up to be the worst year for total pay growth since 2009

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