Policy Paper

Policy Note: An update to our Review forecast for the November lockdown

 

Summary
 

We estimate that the November lockdown will contribute to a fourth quarter contraction in GDP in the region of 3 per cent and reduce year-on-year growth from our November Review main case forecast of -10.5% to between -11.5 and -12%.
 

Reconstructing Macroeconomics after COVID-19: Notes for a First Draft

Abstract 

As a discipline, we have contributed much in response to the global challenges posed by the COVID-19 pandemic. But we also have much to learn about what it implies for our profession. And there are key actions—particularly on fiscal, monetary, global forecasting, prudential, sovereign insolvency, and global early warning—that are needed now.

Projection of demand for Trussell Trust food banks due to the Covid-19 crisis: Quarterly at the UK (national) level

National Institute of Economic and Social Research, in association with Heriot-Watt University

 

Abstract

Moving Back Towards Market-Based Government Finance

The Federal Reserve and the Bank of England have been pursuing yield curve control in their respective government securities markets since market liquidity collapsed in the middle of March. The paper discusses the issues that arose during and after previous episodes of yield curve control, particularly after World War II, and proposes changes in procedures, such as state underwriting of new issue auctions and a safety net for market markers, that would help the authorities escape from the rigidity of present policies.

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