Policy Paper

Quantitative Tightening: Protecting Monetary Policy from Fiscal Encroachment

As we face up to the need to plan an eventual exit from quantitative easing, in this Commentary we consider how to reform both sides of the central bank balance sheet in a manner that will prepare the ground for a contraction in the balance sheet that does not expose the central bank to excessive risk. Post-QE central bank balance sheets have a maturity mismatch, with long term bonds as assets financed by liabilities in the form of commercial bank reserves bearing floating interest rates.

How should the COVID restrictions in England be eased?

Abstract

Vaccination against the COVID-19 virus began in December 2020 in the UK and by the end of March 2021 were running at 5% population/week. High Levels of social restrictions were implemented for the third time in January 2021 to control the second wave and the resulting in increases in hospitalisations and deaths. Easing those restrictions must balance multiple priorities, weighing the risk of more deaths and hospitalisations against damage done to mental health, incomes and standards of living, education and provision of non-Covid-19 healthcare.

Policy Note: An update to our Review forecast for the November lockdown

 

Summary
 

We estimate that the November lockdown will contribute to a fourth quarter contraction in GDP in the region of 3 per cent and reduce year-on-year growth from our November Review main case forecast of -10.5% to between -11.5 and -12%.
 

Reconstructing Macroeconomics after COVID-19: Notes for a First Draft

Abstract 

As a discipline, we have contributed much in response to the global challenges posed by the COVID-19 pandemic. But we also have much to learn about what it implies for our profession. And there are key actions—particularly on fiscal, monetary, global forecasting, prudential, sovereign insolvency, and global early warning—that are needed now.

Projection of demand for Trussell Trust food banks due to the Covid-19 crisis: Quarterly at the UK (national) level

National Institute of Economic and Social Research, in association with Heriot-Watt University

 

Abstract

Moving Back Towards Market-Based Government Finance

The Federal Reserve and the Bank of England have been pursuing yield curve control in their respective government securities markets since market liquidity collapsed in the middle of March. The paper discusses the issues that arose during and after previous episodes of yield curve control, particularly after World War II, and proposes changes in procedures, such as state underwriting of new issue auctions and a safety net for market markers, that would help the authorities escape from the rigidity of present policies.

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