Policy Paper

Publication date: 26 May 2020 | Publication type: Policy Paper | Authors: Naisbitt, B
Abstract After a period of deleveraging following the financial crisis a decade ago, the past five years have seen private sector debt rising again in both advanced and emerging economies.  Public sector indebtedness, too, is generally higher than five years ago.  The increase in debt was, before...
Publication date: 22 May 2020 | Publication type: Policy Paper | Authors: Dolton, P
Abstract The UK University system faces its biggest challenge in 40 years as a direct result of the Covid-19 pandemic. What is the scale of the uncertainty facing universities and to what extent have the problems been exacerbated by the over-reliance on overseas student fee income to facilitate a...
Publication date: 12 May 2020 | Publication type: Policy Paper | Authors: Allen, B | JEL classification: E52, E58
The Federal Reserve and the Bank of England have been pursuing yield curve control in their respective government securities markets since market liquidity collapsed in the middle of March. The paper discusses the issues that arose during and after previous episodes of yield curve control,...
Publication date: 23 Apr 2020 | Publication type: Policy Paper | Authors: DoyleP
Abstract Pandemic is not the time to “do something”: more than ever, it is the time to “do something coherent.” Aid for the poorest countries conditioned on debt service, just announced by the IMF and G-20, utterly fails that imperative. Instead, grants equivalent to the full IMF estimate of the...
Publication date: 22 Apr 2020 | Publication type: Policy Paper | External authors: Dixon, H
Abstract The big changes in consumption patterns during the Lockdown need not of themselves have a big effect on measured inflation.  Using a guesstimate of lockdown weights for different types of consumption and applying them retrospectively to the 2019 inflation data as an experiment led to a...
Publication date: 14 Apr 2020 | Publication type: Policy Paper | External authors: Milne, A
Abstract This paper explores the costs and benefits of compensating those UK SMEs who have experienced substantial revenue loss as a result of the current closure of their business activities. It finds that the benefits very substantially exceed the costs, by a ratio of 5:1 (every £1 of government...
Publication date: 9 Apr 2020 | Publication type: Policy Paper | Authors: Allen, B
With economic activity severely disrupted by the coronavirus crisis, many governments have been supporting peoples’ incomes and keeping businesses alive by means of income support programmes financed by borrowing. This paper describes how the borrowing is being done in the United States and the...
Publication date: 1 Apr 2020 | Publication type: Policy Paper | Authors: Bougheas | JEL classification: E58, E64, H51
The purpose of this article is twofold. Firstly, it argues that it is doubtful that the currently announced policies will achieve their targets while they create substantial obstacles to the recovery of the post-crisis economy. Secondly, it proposes an alternative plan that its aim is (a) to ensure...
Publication date: 11 Mar 2020 | Publication type: Policy Paper | Authors: Chadha, J S, Dolton, P, Manzoni, C, Mao, X, Nguyen, D, Runge, J, Whyte, K, Young, G
On Wednesday 11th March 2020, Chancellor Rishi Sunak delivered his first Budget only 27 days after being appointed. The Chancellor delivered this first, post-Brexit Budget for this Government, which has a strong mandate after its comprehensive election victory in December that should be strong...
Publication date: 6 Mar 2019 | Publication type: Policy Paper | Theme: Macroeconomics | Authors: Chadha, J S, Hantzsche, A, Kara, A, Young, G | Report number: 11
  Political deadlock and constitutional crisis does not necessarily spell economic doom.  The UK economy is at full employment and in desperate need of investment to enhance productive capacity.  But waiting for the outcome of this tortuous EU Exit process has produced an economic delay.  Output is...

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