- Home
- Publications
- Financial Spillovers Of The American Rescue Plan On Emerging Markets
Financial spillovers of the American Rescue Plan on emerging markets
Sign in to Access
Pub. Date
10 May, 2021
Pub. Type
Downloads
This content is restricted to corporate members, NiGEM subscribers and NIESR partners.
External Authors
Kucuk, Hande
Related Themes
Macro-Economic Modelling and ForecastingPublisher
NIESR, London
Key points
- The American Rescue Plan is expected to have a positive effect on economic activity in emerging markets via trade, with those that are commodity exporters also benefiting from higher commodity prices.
- However, it poses certain risks for emerging economies through tighter domestic financial conditions caused by a potentially stronger dollar and higher global long-term interest rates, especially if coupled with a rise in global risk aversion like the one observed during the taper tantrum episode in 2013.
- Using our NiGEM model, we show that financial spillovers have the potential to offset fully the positive impacts of the American Rescue Plan in countries with higher risk premia such as Argentina, Brazil and Turkey, and may also constrain the positive spillovers in lower risk-rated countries such as Indonesia and Russia. These results highlight the need for international policy coordination to ease external finance constraints should these constraints become binding.
Related Blog Posts
Blog
Inflation Still Likely to Fall to 2 per cent or Below Next Month
Huw Dixon
17 Apr 2024
8 min read
Blog
What is the Current State of the UK Economy?
Paula Bejarano Carbo
Stephen Millard
26 Feb 2024
7 min read
Related Projects
Related News
news
Why it’s not worth worrying that the UK has technically entered a recession
26 Feb 2024
4 min read
Related Publications
This category can only be viewed by members.
publication
Recessionary Pressures Receding in the Rearview Mirror as UK Economy Gains Momentum
12 Apr 2024
GDP Trackers
Related events
Summer 2023 Economic Forum
NIESR is delighted to bring to you our latest Economic Forum where we presented our forecast for the next economic quarter. With inflation remaining stubbornly high, a labour market that...
11:00 to 12:00
11 August, 2023
Spring 2023 Economic Forum
NIESR is delighted to bring to you our latest Economic Forum where we present our forecast for the next economic quarter. As King Charles III is officially crowned, and the...
11:00 to 12:00
12 May, 2023
Winter 2023 Economic Forum
With recent UK GDP figures prompting a cautious optimism amongst some analysts, the question has arisen around whether the UK can avoid a recession? Was the 0.1% growth in November...
11:00 to 12:00
10 February, 2023
Autumn 2022 Economic Forum
Join us, the day after the Chancellor’s autumn statement, to hear our analysis of the measures announced and their likely impact at both a UK, and individual household, level. Utilising...
11:30 to 12:30
18 November, 2022
Summer 2022 Economic Forum
We are delighted to invite you to our Summer 2022 Economic Forecast, where we will present and discuss NIESR’s latest forecasts on the UK and global economies, with an opportunity...
11:00 to 12:00
5 August, 2022
Spring 2022 Economic Forum
We are delighted to invite you to our Spring 2022 Economic Forecast, at which we will present and discuss NIESR’s latest forecasts on the UK and global economies, with an...
11:00 to 12:00
13 May, 2022
Winter 2022 Economic Forum
With rising inflation asking questions of central banks, consumer incomes hit by rising energy prices and Omicron continuing to disrupt the supply of both goods and labour, what does the...
11:00 to 12:00
11 February, 2022
Autumn 2021 Economic Forum
We are delighted to invite you to our Autumn 2021 Economic Forum, at which we will present and discuss NIESR’s latest forecasts on the UK and global economies, with an opportunity for you to ask questions.
11:00 to 12:00
12 November, 2021