August 2014 GDP estimates

Our monthly estimates of GDP suggest that output grew by 0.6 per cent in the three months ending in July after growth of 0.8 per cent in the three months ending in June 2014. This implies an annual rate of growth of around 3 per cent. While the economy regained its pre-recession size recently, a significant negative output gap remains. We expect the MPC to introduce the first interest rate hike in February 2015.

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