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Bank regulation, property prices and early warning systems for banking crises in OECD countries


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dp330_0-2.pdfExternal Authors

Dilruba Karim
Related Themes
Monetary Theory and PolicyTags
JEL Code
C52, E58, G21
Journal
Journal of Banking and Finance pp 2255-2264
Paper Category Number
330
Early warning systems (EWS) for banking crises generally omit bank capital, bank liquidity and property prices. Most work on EWS has been for global samples dominated by emerging market crises where time series data on bank capital adequacy and property prices are typically absent. We estimate logit crisis models for OECD countries, finding strong effects from capital adequacy and liquidity ratios as well as property prices, and can exclude traditional variables. Higher capital adequacy and liquidity ratios have a marked effect on the crisis probabilities, implying long run benefits to offset some of the costs that such regulations may impose.
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