December 2015 GDP estimates

Our monthly estimates of GDP suggest that output grew by 0.6 per cent in the three months ending in November after growth of 0.5 per cent in the three months ending in October 2015. This rate of growth is consistent with the continued absorption of spare capacity in the UK economy and our own view that the Bank of England is most likely to begin to increase rates in February 2016.

* NIESR’s latest quarterly forecast (published 4th November 2015) projects GDP growth of 2.4 per cent per annum in 2015 and 2.3 per cent in 2016 (see http://niesr.ac.uk/media for the associated press release).