Fiscal implications of demographic uncertainty for the UK

Pub. Date
11 January, 2005
Pub. Type

We assess the implications of demographic uncertainty for the United Kingdom's fiscal position. We construct stochastic population projections and then use the framework provided by generational accounts to project government revenues and expenditures. We present stochastic paths for the budget balance over time and also evaluate the frequency distribution of the increase in taxes needed to deliver fiscal solvency.