Global Warming Status Ante Redress: 2021 Outturn and Assessment

In 2021, long-standing progress in emissions-efficiency in the OECD came to a sudden-stop. If the 2022 targets are also missed, Emissions Inefficiency Tariffs should be put on the global agenda to add teeth to the Nationally Determined Contributions process to drive the big global cumulative per capita emitters back on track.

Pub. Date
12 December, 2022
Pub. Type

For the OECD bloc in 2021, 18.4 tons of emissions produced US$100,000 PPP GDP in 2017 International dollars. This compares with 18.5 tons in 2020. No progress.

Worse still, this is 0.7 tons above the target for OECD for 2021.

That shortfall is equivalent to a full year of typical OECD progress between 2010 and 2020, with both the US and the EU heading in the wrong direction in 2021. Only four times since 1960 have OECD outturns been this bad.

The OECD sudden stop may be temporary, but it is mostly non-cyclical.

If the target for the OECD is also missed for 2022, the case to introduce penalties on the most emissions-inefficient OECD countries to drive the bloc back on track will become compelling.