How Likely is a Major Recession in 2022?
A combination of war and energy price shocks is reminiscent of the problems which hit the UK economy in the 1970s. Here we look back at previous recessionary episodes to identify the factors which impacted on the economy and trace the linkages which brought about a contraction in output.
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At the time of writing – and these may prove to be famous last words – this piece concludes that the likelihood of a sustained fall or contraction in GDP (i.e., a year-on-year fall) in 2022 appears remote. That said, there may well be a small contraction of GDP (and two consecutive quarters of negative quarterly growth) in the second half of 2022.
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