January 2013 GDP estimates

Our monthly estimates of GDP suggest that output declined by 0.3 per cent in the three months ending in December after growth of 0.1 per cent in the three months ending in November 2012. These estimates suggest a growth rate of 0.0 per cent in 2012, down from 0.9 per cent in 2011. These estimates for the final quarter of the year are distorted due to an artificially high level of output in 2012Q3. Removing these distortions suggests an underlying economic performance that is best described as flat.

 

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