July 2013 GDP estimates
Our monthly estimates of
Note: these estimates are consistent with revised data published by the Office for National Statistics (ONS), including the Index of Production figures published today.
The National Institute interprets the term “recession” to mean a period when output is falling or receding, while “depression” is a period when output is depressed below its previous peak. Thus, unless output turns down again, the recession is over, while the period of depression is likely to continue for some time. We do not expect output to pass its peak in early 2008 until 2015.
Our track record in producing early estimates of
A paper describing the methodology used to produce the data was published in the February 2005 volume of the Economic Journal:
Mitchell, J. Smith, R. J., Weale, M. R., Wright, S. and Salazar, E. L. (2005) ‘An Indicator of Monthly
Available from: http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/journal/10.1111/(ISSN)1468-0297
A paper describing the methodology used to produce the data for the inter-war period was published in the October 2012 volume of Explorations in Economic History:
Mitchell, J., Solomou, S. and Weale, M. (2012) ‘Monthly
From April until October 2006 our estimates were computed using the Index of Services published by ONS. However this monthly series shows considerable volatility which has caused us some problems in estimating
For more information please telephone Simon Kirby (NIESR, Centre for Macroeconomics) on 020 7654 1916.
Contents of Press Release
Table 1, Page 3: Summary Table of Quarterly Growth Rates showing Monthly Data, 3 months ending in that month, and Quarterly Growth (% per quarter). All contain Figures for Industry & GDP.
Table 2, Page 4: Output by Sector (Industry, Agriculture, Construction, Private Services, Public Services, GDP(B) (calculated at prices excluding taxes and subsidies), GDP
Table 3, Page 5: Output in Quarter Ending in Month Shown by sector (as above)
Table 4, Page 6: Growth in Quarter Ending in Month Shown over Previous Quarter (% at Annual Rate) by sector (as above)