July 2016 GDP Estimates

Our monthly estimates of GDP suggest that output grew by 0.6 per cent in the three months ending in June 2016 after growth of 0.6 per cent in the three months ending in May 2016.

Jack Meaning, Research Fellow at NIESR said “At first glance this represents a robust rate of quarterly growth for the UK economy. However, the quarterly figure masks an important within-quarter pattern. Our monthly estimates suggest that April saw a large expansion in GDP, which then stagnated in May. The estimate for June is one of an intensifying contraction across the board, but this is not enough to offset the very strong April numbers. What it does suggest is that when April drops out of the 3 month calculation we should see a quick deterioration of growth, especially if the estimated contraction in June persists or accelerates into July and beyond.”

*See here for press release published 8th June.