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Local economic effects of Brexit


External Authors

Dhingra, S

Machin, S

Overman, H
Related Themes
Monetary Theory and PolicyJEL Code
F13, F15, F17, R1
Journal
National Institute Economic Review
Publisher
Sage Publications, London
External Resources
http://journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10.1177/002795011724200112
This paper studies local economic impacts of the increases in trade barriers associated with Brexit. Predictions of the local impact of Brexit are presented under two different scenarios, soft and hard Brexit, which are developed from a structural trade model. Average effects are predicted to be negative under both scenarios, and to be more negative under hard Brexit. The spatial variation in negative shocks across areas is higher in the latter case as some local areas are particularly specialised in sectors that are predicted to be badly hit by hard Brexit. Areas in the South of England, and urban areas, are harder hit by Brexit under both scenarios. Again, this pattern is explained by sector specialisation. Finally, the areas that were most likely to vote remain are those that are predicted to be most negatively impacted by Brexit.
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