- Home
- Publications
- Macro Modelling With Many Models
Macro Modelling with Many Models
Authors
External Authors
Bache, I.W., Ravazzolo, F., Vahey, S.P.
Related Themes
Macro-Economic Dynamics and PolicyPaper Category Number
337
We argue that the next generation of macro modellers at Inflation Targeting central banks should adapt a methodology from the weather forecasting literature known as `ensemble modelling'. In this approach, uncertainty about model specifications (e.g., initial conditions, parameters, and boundary conditions) is explicitly accounted for by constructing ensemble predictive densities from a large number of component models. The components allow the modeller to explore a wide range of uncertainties; and the resulting ensemble `integrates out' these uncertainties using time-varying weights on the components. We provide two examples of this modelling strategy: (i) forecasting inflation with a disaggregate ensemble; and (ii) forecasting inflation with an ensemble DSGE.
Related Blog Posts
Public Debt Sustainability and Fiscal Rules
Stephen Millard
Benjamin Caswell
05 Feb 2024
4 min read
Related Projects
Related News
Call for Papers: Lessons From Quantitative Easing & Quantitative Tightening
09 Feb 2024
1 min read
Related Publications
The Nature of the Inflationary Surprise in Europe and the USA
21 Mar 2024
Discussion Papers
Energy and Climate Policy in a DSGE Model of the United Kingdom
08 Mar 2024
Discussion Papers
Exploring Alternative Data Sources for Household Wealth Statistics
24 Jan 2024
Discussion Papers