March 2016 GDP estimates

Our monthly estimates of GDP suggest that output grew by 0.3 per cent in the three months ending in February 2016 after growth of 0.4 per cent in the three months ending in January 2016. The particularly weak monthly figure for December 2015 continues to weigh on these three-month growth rates as our estimates suggest that the economy has expanded by roughly 0.4 per cent since the turn of the year.*

Jack Meaning, Research Fellow at NIESR, said “It looks as if output growth at the start of 2016 has been subdued. However, it appears that December 2015 may have been a low point for GDP and as this drops out of the calculation of quarterly growth rates, output growth for the first quarter may strengthen slightly.”

* Calculated as the change in real GDP between the fourth quarter of 2015 and the end of February 2016