- Home
- Publications
- Medium-run Implications Of Changing Demographic Structures For The Macro-economy
Medium-run implications of changing demographic structures for the macro-economy
External Authors
Aksoy, Y
Basso, H S
Smith, R P
Related Themes
Macro-Economic Dynamics and PolicyJEL Code
E32, J11
Journal
National Institute Economic Review
Publisher
Sage Publications, London
External Resources
http://journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10.1177/002795011724100114
Issue
241
While there may be an important, but transitory, cyclical component in the poor performance of the past decade, we will emphasise the secular forces: the impact of demographic structure and innovation. We draw on the empirical and theoretical work reported in Aksoy, Basso, Smith and Grasl (2015), ABSG, about the impact of changes in demographic structure on macroeconomic outcomes. This suggests that changes in age profile not only have significant implications for savings, investment, real interest rates and growth but also for innovation. The size of the effects seems plausible. For instance, if in 2015 the UK had the 1970 age structure, it would have added 0.68 percentage points to the long-run annual growth rate. The model suggests that the population ageing predicted for the next decades will tend to reduce output growth and real interest rates across OECD countries.
Related Blog Posts
Public Debt Sustainability and Fiscal Rules
Stephen Millard
Benjamin Caswell
05 Feb 2024
4 min read
Related Projects
Related News
Call for Papers: Lessons From Quantitative Easing & Quantitative Tightening
09 Feb 2024
1 min read
Related Publications
Adam Smith and the Bankers: Retrospect and Prospect
04 Jan 2024
National Institute Economic Review
On the Promises and Perils of Smithian Growth: From the Pin Factory to AI
04 Jan 2024
National Institute Economic Review
Economic Progress and Adam Smith’s Dilemma
04 Jan 2024
National Institute Economic Review
Adam Smith’s ‘Wealth of Nations’ is Still Relevant to UK Trade Policymaking on International Trade
04 Jan 2024
National Institute Economic Review