New Cases Declining

Main points

• The R number remains below 1 in all English regions and UK nations (Figure 1). However, it has increased relative to our forecasts made four weeks ago.
• New Covid-19 cases are forecast to decrease in all nations of the UK apart from Scotland where they remain constant (Figure 2) as well as all English regions (Figure 3).
• New cases for all age brackets are forecast to fall (Figure 4). This includes those aged 0-19 for whom they were previously forecast to increase.
• Hospital admissions are forecast to decrease (Figure 5).

“The R number remains less than 1. Forecasts of new cases of Covid-19 show decreases across all nations apart from Scotland where it is constant. The pattern of decrease is shared across all English regions and all age groups.”