- The R number remains below 1 in all English regions and UK nations (Figure 1). However, it has increased relative to our forecasts made four weeks ago.
- New Covid-19 cases are forecast to decrease in all nations of the UK apart from Scotland where they remain constant (Figure 2) as well as all English regions (Figure 3).
- New cases for all age brackets are forecast to fall (Figure 4). This includes those aged 0-19 for whom they were previously forecast to increase.
- Hospital admissions are forecast to decrease (Figure 5).
“The R number remains less than 1. Forecasts of new cases of Covid-19 show decreases across all nations apart from Scotland where it is constant. The pattern of decrease is shared across all English regions and all age groups.”
Dr Craig Thamotheram
Senior Economist - Macroeconomic Modelling and Forecasting