The Northern Ireland Protocol – Lost Opportunities for Northern Ireland?

Despite inherent structural, political and policy weaknesses, post-Brexit output growth in Northern Ireland (NI) presents an enigma. Specifically, output in Northern Ireland has evidenced one of the strongest recoveries from the pandemic post-Brexit.

Against this backdrop, while the Northern Irish economy has regained its pre-pandemic level, there is a question as to how much of NI’s economic performance can be attributed to the NI Protocol. Bhattacharjee et al. (2022) presented counterfactual GVA trends for NI, relative to the UK as a whole, as projected before the Brexit deal and under the NI Protocol. This presented a robust outlook post-Brexit relative to the UK as a whole, but much weaker than London.