Predicting the outcome of Disability Living Allowance (DLA) adult claims

This working paper considers how well coded data from Disability Living Allowance (DLA) adult claim packs can predict the outcome of these claims. The probability of receiving a care or mobility award is estimated. A range of control variables are considered. First using items that reflect the entitlement criteria for care and mobility awards and then looking at whether additional evidence was required as part of the claim process. Predicted results from these estimates were then compared with real world decisions and those made by Decision Makers on the basis of the coded information from claim packs.