A preliminary assessment of the possible economic impact of the coronavirus outbreak: update

Publication date: 27 Mar 2020 | Publication type: NiGEM Observations | NIESR Author(s): Hurst, I; Liadze, I; Naisbitt, B; Young, G

 

Summary

• The coronavirus pandemic has triggered a global economic shock. We provide an exploratory analysis of its impact on the global economy
• The channels we focus on are a reduction in labour, a reduction in expenditure and investment, an increase in uncertainty, and a temporary shutdown in some sectors
• Not accounting for substantial policy responses, the underlying impact on global GDP growth may be similar in magnitude to the financial crisis of 2008/9.