Prospects for the UK Economy

Publication date: 3 Aug 2016 | Publication type: National Institute Economic Review | Theme: Macroeconomics | NIESR Author(s): Kirby, S; Carreras, O; Meaning, J; Piggott, R | Journal: National Institute Economic Review Issue 237 | Publisher: Sage Publications, London
  • GDP is expected to grow by 1.7 per cent in 2016, slowing to just 1 per cent in 2017. GDP is likely to decline by 0.2 per cent in the third quarter of this year and there is a risk of a further deterioration.
  • Inflation is forecast to increase significantly, peaking at just over 3 per cent at the end of 2017. The Bank of England is expected to ‘look through’ this temporary rise and ease monetary policy substantially in the coming months.
  • Government announcements have effectively ‘over-ridden’ the Fiscal Charter and borrowing is expected to increase by an additional £47 billion over the period 2016–17 to 2020–21.

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