Prospects for the World Economy
- The Covid-19 pandemic and the effects of the measures taken to protect lives continue to dominate the short-term global economic outlook.
- In still highly uncertain times, there are widespread falls in GDP as lockdowns pause many forms of economic activity. Some countries are now starting to unlock, permitting a wider range of economic activities to be undertaken and allowing increased mobility. The effects of unlocking are uncertain, especially with the number of people infected still rising.
- We project that global GDP will fall by 5 per cent this year, a substantially larger fall than during the financial crisis, taking global GDP back to 2018 levels, with unemployment rising as a consequence.
- Once economic activity re-establishes after lockdowns are lifted, the increase in output could result in substantial yearon-year increases in GDP next year. We project an increase of 6¼ per cent in global GDP. Even with such an increase, however, the level of GDP at the end of 2021 will be lower than had the pandemic not occurred.
Read the accompanying press release