- Home
- Publications
- Real-Time Probabilistic Nowcasts Of UK Quarterly GDP Growth Using A Mixed-Frequency Bottom-Up Approach
Real-Time Probabilistic Nowcasts of UK Quarterly GDP Growth Using a Mixed-Frequency Bottom-Up Approach
Sign in to AccessDownloads
This content is restricted to corporate members, NiGEM subscribers and NIESR partners.
Authors
External Authors
Lopresto, A
Related Themes
Macro-Economic Modelling and ForecastingJEL Code
C53; E32
Journal
National Institute Economic Review
Publisher
Cambridge University Press
External Resources
Issue
254
We propose a nowcasting system to obtain real-time predictive intervals for the first-release of UK quarterly GDP growth that can be implemented in a menu-driven econometric software. We design a bottom-up approach: forecasts for GDP components (from the output and the expenditure approaches) are inputs into the computation of probabilistic forecasts for GDP growth. For each GDP component considered, mixed-data-sampling regressions are applied to extract predictive content from monthly and quarterly indicators. We find that predictions from the nowcasting system are accurate, in particular when nowcasts are computed using monthly indicators 30 days before the GDP release. The system is also able to provide well-calibrated predictive intervals.
Related Blog Posts
Inflation Still Likely to Fall to 2 per cent or Below Next Month
Huw Dixon
17 Apr 2024
8 min read
What is the Current State of the UK Economy?
Paula Bejarano Carbo
Stephen Millard
26 Feb 2024
7 min read
Related Projects
Related News
Why it’s not worth worrying that the UK has technically entered a recession
26 Feb 2024
4 min read
1.2 million UK Households Insolvent This Year as a Direct Result of Higher Mortgage Repayments
22 Jun 2023
2 min read
The Key Steps to Ensuring Normal Service is Quickly Resumed in the Economy
13 Feb 2023
4 min read
Related Publications
Recessionary Pressures Receding in the Rearview Mirror as UK Economy Gains Momentum
12 Apr 2024
GDP Trackers