Publications
Type: NIESR Wage Tracker
Real pay growth to strengthen at start of 2020
Figure 1 - Average weekly earnings growth (per cent per annum)
Main points
According to new ONS statistics published this morning, UK average weekly earnings (AWE) expanded by 3.4 per cent excluding bonuses in the three months to November...
Type: NIESR CPI Tracker
The consumer price index inflation rate declined to 1.3 per cent in the year to December 2019, as per data released by the ONS. Our new analysis of 129,516 locally-collected goods and services indicate that inflation in the restaurants and hotels and clothing and footwear categories decreased in...
Type:
UK Output Stagnated at end of 2019
Main points
The UK economy is on course to post zero growth in the fourth quarter of 2019, consistent with growth of 1.4 per cent in 2019 as a whole. On the basis of recent trends we tentatively forecast service sector-driven growth of 0.3...
Type: NIESR CPI Tracker
According to figures released this morning by the ONS, consumer price index inflation decreased to 1.5 per cent in the year to October 2019. Our new analysis of 129,752 locally-collected goods and services prices suggest that consumers benefitted from changes to the energy price cap. Furthermore...
Type: NIESR Wage Tracker
Year Ends With Softer Pay Growth
Main points
According to new ONS statistics published this morning, UK average weekly earnings (AWE) expanded by 3.5 per cent excluding bonuses in the three months to October compared to the year before (figure 1).
Total earnings growth including bonuses was 3.2...
Type: NIESR GDP Tracker
Growth Petering Out at End of Year
Please find the full commentary in the attachment
Type: General Election Briefing
Foreward
In this election campaign we are seeing the consequences of the Brexit impasse across a raft of policy areas. With infrastructure and investment expenditures continuing to be deferred, we are seeing a rash of spending promises to placate a disillusioned electorate. But what we continue...
Type: General Election Briefing
Most economic analyses of parties’ tax and spending promises treat the government’s budget like that of a household, ignoring the impact of proposed policies on the economy. This briefing aims to fill this gap by providing a macroeconomic assessment of announced fiscal policies. It focuses on:
The...
Type: General Election Briefing
Immigration was one of the main issues around the UK’s decision to leave the EU. The outcome of the General Election is likely to determine the design of a future immigration system, with party proposals ranging from the introduction of a post-Brexit “Australian-style” points system, to continuing...
Type: General Election Briefing
International trade plays a crucial role in fostering economic growth across a wide range of industries at the national and the regional level. The prospects for UK’s international trade are closely tied to the future relationship between the UK and the EU. Voters are being offered a wide spectrum...
Type: General Election Briefing
This briefing focuses on:
The state of the UK economy and UK-wide living standards going into the election.
The causes of slow growth and the need for supply-side reforms.
Visit our General Election 2019 site
Type: General Election Briefing
Economic performance varies widely across towns, cities and rural areas in the UK. Spatial disparities are found in all industrialised countries, although on some measures the UK is significantly more unequal than comparable countries. These disparities are matter for people because local social...
Type: General Election Briefing
The main political parties have meticulously set out costings of their spending plans for the next Parliament and how they would finance them if elected. This briefing focuses on:
The fiscal rules adopted by the political parties.
The underlying fiscal position and how it has changed since the...
Type: General Election Briefing
The election campaign has focussed on the tax and spending plans of the main political parties, this brief outlines:
The case for fiscal rules as part of the country’s strategy of macroeconomic management.
The need for comprehensive reform of the process of setting fiscal policy.
This brief...
Type: General Election Briefing
Overview
Labour, Conservatives and Lib Dems have all pledged to increase the education budget. But we ask, from early years via schools to further and higher education: What can be done to make the education system more effective and fairer? How can outcomes across different levels of education be...
Type: General Election Briefing
Labour and the Conservatives both plan historically high increases to the UK minimum wage, aiming to use the minimum wage as an important tool in raising living standards. This briefing focuses on:
The current minimum wage structure and how the rates are determined;
The future path of the National...
Type: General Election Briefing
Brexit dominates political debate and divides opinion. The main political parties have different positions on this issue, ranging from cancelling Brexit (Liberal Democrats) to seeking a ‘clean-break’ (Brexit Party). The Prime Minster wants to ‘get Brexit done’ on the terms of the deal negotiated...
Type: Business Conditions Forum Summary
International Trade
The meeting discussed latest trends in international trade. The discussions were centred around the
following five questions:
1. How much has global trade slowed?
2. Is the slowdown structural?
3. What are the effects from China-US tariffs on UK?
4. What risks arise from the...
Type: NIESR CPI Tracker
Change to Energy Price Caps Impacts Inflation
According to figures released this morning by the ONS, consumer price index inflation decreased to 1.5 per cent in the year to October 2019. Our new analysis of 129,752 locally-collected goods and services prices suggest that consumers benefitted from...
Type: NIESR Wage Tracker
Uncertainty Taking Toll on Labour Market
Main points
According to new ONS statistics published this morning, UK average weekly earnings (AWE) expanded by 3.6 per cent (excluding and including bonuses) in the three months to September compared to the year before (figure 1).
With CPI inflation at 1....
Type: NIESR GDP Tracker
Output Stagnating After Mid-Year Rebound
Please find the full commentary in the attachment
Type: Topical Briefing
When advising government, the LPC’s main objective in setting the Youth Rates is:
"to ensure that the NMW’s structure and the level of the youth rates enables young people to make a successful transition from education to employment, and to access roles which provide them with the work...
Type: Report
Right from their inception the minimum wage rates have included age-related bands intended to give young people protection in the labour market. Initially there were only two age bands, 18-21 and 22+. With the introduction of the National Living Wage in 2016 there are now four age bands and an...
Type: National Institute Economic Review
Forecast SummariesThe UK Economy: Forecast Summary
The UK EconomyProspects for the UK Economy Arno Hantzsche and Garry Young
Forecast SummariesThe World Economy: Forecast Summary
The UK EconomyThe Economic Impact of Prime Minister Johnson's New Brexit Deal Arno Hantzsche and Garry Young
The World...
Type: National Institute Economic Review
We not only live in interesting times but also dangerous ones. The weaknesses of the post-war consensus on macroeconomic control was laid bare by Dow’s (1964) magisterial analysis and the subsequent implosion of demand management in the 1970s (see Blackaby, 1978; and Britton, 1991). It is becoming...
Type: National Institute Economic Review
Regardless of the particular form that Brexit ultimately takes, the UK faces an unprecedented set of political, economic, and social challenges. While the causes are many and complex, they amount to a crisis of confidence and popular trust that has overturned the normal logic of political practice...
Type: National Institute Economic Review
The UK economy faces more than usually uncertain times. Outside the European Union, and in an increasingly challenging global environment characterised by ageing populations, climate change, populism, protectionism, and more, the country needs to chart a new course. This may well require...
Type: National Institute Economic Review
Economic policymaking in the UK has historically focussed more on the demand side than on the supply side of the economy. Yet it is on the supply side – the way in which an economy adapts to change while growing productive capacity on a sustainable basis – that medium- to long-term economic...
Type: National Institute Economic Review
The UK faces no easy options in determining how to develop its approach to international trade post-Brexit. If it finally decides to leave the European Customs Union and Single Market, it faces the possibility either of simply crashing out of the EU without a deal; trying to form market-access...
Type: National Institute Economic Review
Services are simultaneously the most important sector of the UK economy and the sector facing the biggest challenge as a result of Brexit. The prospective departure from the European Single Market reduces the UK to the status of ‘3rd country’ in respect of services. Accessing the internal market...
Type: National Institute Economic Review
After Brexit, the UK must show that it has a voice. It will need to re-earn international respect, and in particular establish the concept of a ‘global Britain’ on the basis of performance, not rhetoric. That means re-establishing a strong network of relationships around the world in support of its...
Type: National Institute Economic Review
Threats to the security of the UK are evolving with the changing nature of conflict and balance of power in the world. They are multiple and fragmented, and domestic and online as well as overseas in nature: principally state-based threats such as posed by Russian activity; terrorism; cyber-attacks...
Type: National Institute Economic Review
Alongside the challenge of maintaining economic competitiveness in the face of great uncertainty, Brexit brings an opportunity for the government to set out a new industrial strategy. The case for doing so rests on the need to address areas of persistent structural weakness in the UK economy,...
Type: National Institute Economic Review
The need to decarbonise the economy in order to slow the pace of climate change is now recognised as one of the most pressing international policy challenges. While the UK cannot by itself materially affect global climate change, it has an opportunity to play an influential role, both by persuading...
Type: National Institute Economic Review
Infrastructure investment can substantially increase a nation’s capital stock and thereby boost productive, or supplyside, potential. It can also be useful as a tool in macroeconomic stabilisation, while public spending on quality infrastructure projects has been shown to have significantly greater...
Type: National Institute Economic Review
Discussion of the UK’s housing crisis is of long date, and tends to focus on a simple story about a mismatch in housing supply and demand and the consequent need to build more homes. Yet the reality is more complex with multiple sub-plots including social housing, stress in the private rented...
Type: National Institute Economic Review
Brexit creates deep challenges for the UK’s structure of governance; not least concerning the degree and manner in which powers are devolved within one of the most centralised countries in the world. Departing from the EU is likely to exacerbate regional inequalities and possibly social divide,...
Type: National Institute Economic Review
Government post-Brexit will face sustained and difficult challenges as the UK adjusts to its new situation. Yet these challenges risk being exacerbated by fundamental changes in UK political debate that are affecting the perceived legitimacy and effectiveness of the system and structures of...
Type: National Institute Economic Review
A backlash against numerous inequalities – and in particular against perceived unfairness in society – is a significant driver of the UK’s current political malaise. Addressing inequalities between income groups, regions and generations will thus be key to re-establishing faith in government and...
Type: National Institute Economic Review
On 17 October 2019, the UK government and its EU counterparts concluded a renegotiation of the previous withdrawal agreement and political declaration which sets out the framework for their future relationship. The government hoped that this would enable the UK to leave the EU on 31 October 2019...
Type: National Institute Economic Review
The economic outlook is clouded by significant economic and political uncertainty and depends critically on the United Kingdom’s trading relationships after Brexit. Domestic economic weakness is further amplified by slowing global demand.
We would not expect economic activity to be boosted by the...
Type: National Institute Economic Review
Increases in tariffs and uncertainty about both future tariff impositions and their potential implications for production activity have continued to have negative effects on global trade and industrial production.
Several central banks, facing below target inflation, have loosened monetary policy...
Type: Economic Review Preview
This is a preview from the National Institute Economic Review, November 2019, no 250.
The issue of whether fiscal and monetary policy should be coordinated is a hotly debated topic in the Euro Area. In September, the ECB cut the deposit interest rate and announced a new Quantitative Easing...
Type: Economic Review Preview
This is a preview from the National Institute Economic Review, November 2019, no 250.
On 12 September 2019, the ECB Governing Council announced a comprehensive package of stimulatory measures in response to a weaker outlook for growth and inflation and a concern that inflation expectations were...
Type: NIESR Discussion Paper
This paper provides an inventory of the available macroeconomic statistics in the UK for the last hundred years or so. The focus is on documenting the higher frequency (daily, monthly and quarterly) macroeconomic data that are available after the World War 1, rather than longer run annual time...
Type: NIESR Discussion Paper
We consider the role played by school leaders in improving pupil attainment, going beyond previous studies by exploring the leadership roles of deputy and assistant heads and classroom-based teachers with additional leadership responsibilities. Using panel data for state-funded secondary schools in...
Type: NIESR Discussion Paper
We analyse new industry-level data to re-examine the UK productivity puzzle. We carry out an accounting exercise that allows us to distinguish general macroeconomic patterns from sector trends and idiosyncrasies, providing a roadmap for anyone interested in explaining the puzzle. We focus on the UK...
Type: NIESR Discussion Paper
An issue of interest in the literature that explores the drivers of inequality is the distributional bearing of tax and transfer policy, where an important theme concerns changes in the relative treatment of alternative population subgroups. We develop an empirical approach for quantifying the...
Type: NIESR Wage Tracker
Labour market weathering an increasingly difficult economic environment
Main points
According to new ONS statistics published this morning, UK average weekly earnings (AWE) expanded by 3.8 per cent (excluding and including bonuses) in the three months to August compared to the year before (figure...
Type: NIESR Occasional Paper
Please see table of contents here
You can download the mobi file here for use on a Kindle; the pdf can be saved and read on an iPad using the iBooks app. To order a paperback copy, please see here.
Over the past 20 years, considerable progress has been made in the science of monetary policy. This...
- 1 of 63
- next ›
