Publications
Type: GDP Estimate
Our monthly estimates of GDP suggest that output growth slowed to 0.2 per cent in the first quarter of 2018 from 0.4 per cent for the final quarter of 2017.
Type: Report
Concern about the UK’s productivity problem has become widespread. Fixing the UK’s productivity problem requires action for the lagging parts of the economy – low pay sectors such as retail and hospitality, the long tail of low-productivity firms, and the five million individuals in the UK lacking...
Type: NIESR Discussion Paper
I review the contribution and influence of Milton Friedman’s 1968 presidential address to the American Economic Association. I argue that Friedman’s influence on the practice of central banking was profound and that his argument in favour of monetary rules was responsible for thirty years of low...
Type: NIESR Discussion Paper
In this paper we incorporate a macroprudential policy model within a semi-structural global macroeconomic model, NiGEM. The existing NiGEM model is expanded for the UK, Germany and Italy¹ to include two macroprudential tools: loan-to-value ratios on mortgage lending and variable bank capital...
Type: National Institute Economic Review
Our new "virtual issue" of our Economic Review focussing on Productivity
Type: NIESR Discussion Paper
We study the effects of the announcements of ECB asset purchases and of financial stability measures in the euro area in the wake of the global financial crisis and the euro area sovereign debt crisis on ten-year government bond term premia in eleven euro area countries. We find that the term...
Type: Report
This report examines the impact of the welfare reform and welfare-to-work programmes introduced by the 2010–15 Conservative/Liberal Democrat Coalition Government and the Conservative Government elected in May 2015. A particular aim of the review was to examine the evidence about the ways in which...
Type: Policy Paper
Chancellor Phillip Hammond presented the first Spring Statement yesterday. This was not the occasion to expect new fiscal policies or for rabbits out of a hat – we were told that in advance – even the symbolic red budget box was missing. The Chancellor kept to his promise and made this a non-event...
Type: GDP Estimate
Our monthly estimates of GDP suggest that output growth slowed to 0.3 per cent in the 3 months to February from 0.4 per cent in the 3 months to January and the official estimate of 0.4 per cent for the final quarter of 2017.
Type: NIESR Discussion Paper
We examine the impact of management practices on firm performance among SMEs in Britain over the period 2011-2014, using a unique dataset which links survey data on management practices with firm performance data from the UK’s official business register. We find that SMEs are less likely to use...
Type: NIESR Discussion Paper
We refer to the idea that government must ‘tighten its belt’ as a necessary policy response to higher indebtedness as the household fallacy. We provide a reason to be skeptical of this claim that holds even if the economy always operates at full employment and all markets clear. Our argument rests...
Type: Journal article/book/chapter
Estimates of the performance pay (PP) premium using household survey data are upwardly biased due to the use of PP contracts in higher paying workplaces. Using nationally representative linked employer‐employee data we estimate the PP premium at the mean and across the wage distribution, after...
Type: Report
This report describes a randomised control trial (RCT) into the relative effectiveness of face-to-face compared to blended learning for adult English and maths learning. The report:
describes the RCT design decisions
describes implementation details
provides an assessment of how the trial worked
Type: Report
Type: GDP Estimate
Our monthly estimates of GDP suggest that output grew by 0.5 per cent in the 3 months to January, unchanged from the preliminary ONS estimate for the final quarter of 2017.
Type: National Institute Economic Review
In England, teacher shortages have worsened in recent years and one contributor is the declining rates of retention among newly qualified teachers (NQTs). We employ a method developed in the health-statistics literature to identify schools that both recruit an unusually high level of NQTs and lose...
Type: National Institute Economic Review
There is a perception among some commentators and policy analysts that leadership and managerial practices in private schools are superior to those in state schools. Analysing a survey of workplaces in Britain, we find little evidence to support this contention when examining the prevalence of...
Type: National Institute Economic Review
In recent years, governments have spent considerable time, effort and political capital on education reforms in the expectation that pupil attainment will improve.Since the mid-1990s reforms in England have focused on school governance issues, notably the weakening of local government control over...
Type: National Institute Economic Review
It might only be just a little too strong to argue that the housing market dominates our national life. Whilst economists, if they consider housing at all, would think of the consumption of housing services as another aspect of the basket of goods and services bought, like clothing or food, most...
Type: National Institute Economic Review
GDP is forecast to grow by nearly 2 per cent this year and in 2019. Our forecasts have been revised higher since November.
Annual consumer price inflation peaked at 3 per cent in the final quarter of 2017 and is forecast to ease back to the target rate of 2 per cent over the next eight quarters.
We...
Type: National Institute Economic Review
The global economy is expanding at its fastest pace since 2011. With momentum expected to carry into 2018, we have revised up our forecasts for growth in all of the major economies and regions.
But with many economies operating at close to full capacity, some slowdown in the pace of expansion is...
Type: National Institute Economic Review
A major part of the 2010–15 UK government’s education reforms in England was a focus on the curriculum that pupils study from ages 14–16. Most high profile was the introduction of the English Baccalaureate (EBacc) performance measure for schools, incentivising study of “subjects the Russell Group...
Type: National Institute Economic Review
We explore the variation in pupil attainment at the end of secondary schooling in England. The paper links data on all schools and all pupils within these schools to analyse the role of the school in accounting for this variation. We analyse a number of different indicators of pupil attainment...
Type: National Institute Economic Review
In this note, we focus on underemployment as a potential cause of lower wage growth, which itself may have deeper causes, but which has, we would argue, demonstrably changed since the 2008 recession. The gap between our measures of the number of additional hours required by those who want more...
Type: Report
Executive summary
Aims and objectives of counterfactual wage research
Over the summer, the National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) conducted an independent review of the methodology used by the Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy (BEIS) for estimating the cost...
Type: Economic Review Preview
This is a preview from the National Institute Economic Review, February 2018, no 243.
This Box, prepared by NIESR Senior Economist Jason Lennard and Konstantinos Theodoridis, Professor of Macroeconomics at Cardiff Business School, analyses how an exogenous increase in the price of oil might...
Type: NIESR Discussion Paper
We decompose aggregate consumption of heterogeneous consumers by modelling both savers and their links to collateral constrained borrowers through a bank which prices credit risk. Savers own both firms and the commercial bank while borrowers require loans from the commercial bank to effect their...
Type: Policy Paper
Professor Jagjit S Chadha's written evidence submitted to the Treasury Committee on 29th November 2017 (written evidence can also be found here)
Type: NIESR Discussion Paper
This paper constructs a general equilibrium model where asset price fluctuations are caused by random shocks to beliefs about the future price level that reallocate consumption across generations. In this model, asset prices are volatile, and price-earnings ratios are persistent, even though there...
Type: Economic Review Preview
This is a preview from the National Institute Economic Review, February 2018, no 243
This Box, prepared by NIESR Associate Research Director for Global Macroeconomics Barry Naisbitt and Database Manager Yanitzsa Kazalova, outlines why we downgraded the outlook for productivity growth in the UK...
Type: Economic Review Preview
This is a preview from the National Institute Economic Review, February 2018, no 243
This Box, prepared by NIESR Principal Economist Iana LIadze and Senior Economist Arno Hantzsche, analyses the effects that a possible announcement by the European Central Banks of ‘quantitative tightening’ may...
Type: GDP Estimate
Our monthly estimates of GDP suggest that output grew by 0.6 per cent in the final quarter of 2017, an increase compared with the third quarter when the economy expanded by 0.4 per cent and the strongest quarterly growth estimate since the fourth quarter of 2016. Based on this, the UK economy...
Type: NIESR Discussion Paper
Recent history suggests that raising interest rates higher than warranted by macroeconomic prospects would not be the right policy for financial stability. The significant tightening of monetary policies in the advanced economies from mid-2004 to mid-2006 failed to stop increased risk-taking in the...
Type: NIESR Discussion Paper
This paper investigates whether the educational choices that young people make after the completion of their GCSEs (at age 16) are influenced by their peers. More specifically, it takes advantage of the variation in peer groups that arises when students move from primary to secondary school in...
Type: GDP Estimate
Our monthly estimates of GDP suggest that output expanded by 0.5 per cent in the three months to November, similar to our estimate from last month and slightly stronger than the official outturn for the third quarter of 2017 which was 0.4 per cent. The monthly estimate is closely tracking our...
Type: National Institute Economic Review
This is a new 'virtual' special issue of our Economic Review. Focusing on the financial crisis, it examines the roots and evolution of the crisis and lessons learned in the last decade.
Type: NIESR Discussion Paper
We study the use of US dollar central bank swap lines as a tool for addressing dislocations in the foreign currency swap market against the USD since the global financial crisis. We find that the use of the Federal Reserve’s USD central bank swap lines was mainly related to tensions in US money...
Type: Annual Report
Contents
Reference and administrative information
Trustees’ report
Trustees' responsibilities
Independent auditors report
Consolidated statement of financial activities
Consolidated and charity balance sheet
Notes to the financial statements
Type: NIESR Discussion Paper
We exploit tax-induced exogenous variance in the price of union membership to identify the effects of changes in firm union density on firm productivity and wages in the population of Norwegian firms over the period 2001 to 2012. Increases in union density lead to substantial increases in firm...
Type: Report
This research project considers whether buying houses may reduce long-term savings in the UK economy. This may explain the UK’s relatively low investment rate and weaker productivity performance over the long term. The study has two parts. First, we present new evidence on the saving behaviour of...
Type: GDP Estimate
Our monthly estimates of GDP suggest that output expanded by 0.5 per cent in the three months to October, slightly stronger than the official outturn for the third quarter of 2017 which was 0.4 per cent. The monthly estimate is closely tracking our forecast for real GDP growth for the final quarter...
Type: National Institute Economic Review
We analyse TFP growth in the US business sector using a basic unobserved component model where trend growth follows a random walk and the noise is a first order autoregression. This is fitted using a Kalman-filter methodology. We find that trend TFP growth has declined steadily from 1.5 to 1.0 per...
Type: National Institute Economic Review
The UK’s automotive industry has been one of the ‘star performers’ of the UK economy in recent years – unlike most other manufacturing sectors. Output has increased by over 60 per cent since 2010 and there has been over £8 billion worth of investment in the industry in the past five years. The...
Type: National Institute Economic Review
This paper considers two aspects of this question. First, Brexit has already induced a devaluation of sterling of around 14 per cent since June 2016, which has started to work through to consumer prices: between June 2016 and July 2017 consumer prices increased by around 2.5 per cent. Second, while...
Type: National Institute Economic Review
This paper studies local economic impacts of the increases in trade barriers associated with Brexit. Predictions of the local impact of Brexit are presented under two different scenarios, soft and hard Brexit, which are developed from a structural trade model. Average effects are predicted to be...
Type: National Institute Economic Review
The value of exports to the domestic UK economy does not equal gross export flows, as some of the value-added within UK exports may have been generated abroad. For key business and financial service industries we present new and initial estimates giving a lower bound for the value-added component...
Type: National Institute Economic Review
The past 25 years have been characterised by a surge in international trade as economies have become increasingly inter-linked. In many advanced economies this surge has been associated with increased import competition from lowwage economies. This paper explores the effects of such competition on...
Type: National Institute Economic Review
While there is a broad understanding of the benefits to globalisation in the aggregate, attention has only recently begun to shift towards its distributional consequences. Regardless of the size of the benefits to the entire economy of increasing international trade, there may be winners and losers...
Type: National Institute Economic Review
Having been one of the fastest growing advanced economies ahead of the EU referendum in June 2016, the UK economy is now beginning to slow as others pick up the pace (figure 1). The UK economy is estimated to have grown by 1.5 per cent in the year to the third quarter of 2017. This growth rate...
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