Publications
Type: Economic Review Preview
This is a preview from the National Institute Economic Review, August 2019, no 249.
In this box, prepared by NIESR's economists Arno Hantzsche and David Nguyen, we highlight the importance of reinvestments alongside new investment projects and shows that to bolster future welfare, policy...
Type: Wage Tracker
Pay growth at 11-year high but further acceleration unlikely
Figure 1: Average Weekly Earnings (3 months average year on year growth, per cent)
Source: NIESR, ONS.
Main points
According to new ONS statistics published this morning, UK average weekly earnings (AWE) expanded by 3.6 per cent...
Type: Report
The Changing Mindsets project aimed to improve attainment outcomes at the end of primary school by teaching Year 6 pupils that their brain potential was not a fixed entity but could grow and change through effort exerted. The programme, delivered by Portsmouth University, taught pupils about the...
Type: Report
The pilot intervention ‘Embedding contextualisation in English and mathematics GCSE teaching’ trains English and maths teachers to use examples from real life and vocational contexts in their teaching to emphasise the relevance of studies to the future careers of students. The aim is to improve...
Type: GDP Tracker
UK economy narrowly avoids recession
Please find the full commentary in attachment.
Type: Report
The Spanish economy has been growing at over 3% since 2015, above the average for the EU and the euro area. Unemployment, although still 10 percentage points above the EU average, has fallen from a high of 26.1% in 2013 to 17.2% in 2017. Interest rates are at historical lows thanks to the expansive...
Type: Report
This report is part of the Youth Jobs Gap research series, which uses new Longitudinal Education Outcomes data to present new insights into disadvantaged young people’s transition from compulsory education into employment. The first three national reports have looked at NEET rates, higher education...
Type: Report
Traineeships are an education and training programme that provide young people aged 16-24 with an intensive period of work experience and work preparation training, as well as offering them support in improving their English and maths, to give them the best opportunity of entering an apprenticeship...
Type: Wage Tracker
Public sector earnings growth provides a temporary boost to whole-economy wages
Main points
According to new ONS statistics published this morning, UK average weekly earnings (AWE) expanded by 3.1 per cent including bonuses (3.4 per cent excluding bonuses) in the three months to April...
Type: Report
There is plenty of evidence to indicate that teacher quality matters for pupil attainment. But teachers do not work in a vacuum. They are employed to work in schools, usually under the direction of supervisors and a Head Teacher who, together with a governing board and officials in local and...
Type: GDP Tracker
UK economy slows as stockpiling boost fades
Please find the full commentary in attachment.
Type: NIESR Discussion Paper
This article surveys a subset of literature in macroeconomics which embraces the existence of multiple equilibria. This indeterminacy agenda in macroeconomics uses multiple-equilibrium models to integrate economics with psychology. Economists have long argued that business cycles are driven by...
Type: NIESR Discussion Paper
A large number of countries around the world now provide some kind of tax incentive to encourage firms to undertake innovative activity. This paper presents the policy rationale for these incentives, discusses their design and potential effectiveness, and reviews the empirical evidence on their...
Type: NIESR Discussion Paper
Farmer and Nicolò (2018) show that the Farmer Monetary (FM)-Model outperforms the three-equation New-Keynesian (NK)-model in post war U.S. data. In this paper, we compare the marginal data density of the FM-model with marginal data densities for determinate and indeterminate versions of the NK-...
Type: Journal article/book/chapter
Many students still leave school without a good grasp of basic literacy, despite the negative implications for future educational and labour market outcomes. We evaluate how resources may be used within classrooms to reinforce the teaching of literacy. Specifically, teaching assistants are trained...
Type: Report
Religious and ethnic segregation in schools is an issue of concern for educationalists and policy makers because it has implications for equality and for inclusion and social cohesion. This report was commissioned by the Department for Education to provide evidence on how segregation might be...
Type: NiGEM Observations
This NiGEM Observation presents updated estimates of the economic impact of different Brexit scenarios based on analyses recently published by NIESR and building on earlier work on EU withdrawal by the Institute (e.g. Pain and Young, 2004; Ebell et al., 2016). It provides an overview of the...
Type: Business Conditions Forum Summary
The National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) hosted the first NIESR Business Conditions Forum (BCF) on 15th May 2019. The BCF is a quarterly meeting for chief economists/senior economists of major business and survey organisations, policy making institutions and NIESR with an...
Type: Journal article/book/chapter
Type: Wage Tracker
Nominal pay growth dips temporarily but is expected to stabilise at around 3½ per cent in the second quarter of 2019
Main points
According to new ONS statistics published this morning, UK average weekly earnings (AWE) expanded by 3.2 per cent including bonuses (3.3 per cent excluding...
Type: Report
This Education Endowment Foundation project was a randomised controlled trial (RCT) with 127 schools participating. It tested two interventions: the Improving Working Memory intervention (WM) and an adapted version, named the Working Memory Plus intervention (WM+). Both aimed to improve the...
Type: GDP Tracker
UK economy boosted by temporary factors in first quarter of 2019
Please find the full commentary in attachment.
Type: Report
In the wake of Parliament’s rejection of the proposed Brexit deal, there have been discussions between the Government and the Labour Party on a customs union as the basis for the future relationship between the United Kingdom and the European Union. This option also gained substantial support in...
Type: NIESR Discussion Paper
Exploiting differences in pre-crisis business banking relationships, we present evidence to suggest that restricted credit availability following the 2008 financial crisis increased the rate of business failure in the United Kingdom. But rather than "cleansing” the economy by accelerating the exit...
Type: NIESR Discussion Paper
We examine the welfare effects of GDP-indexed bonds in a New Keynesian DSGE model. We add to a literature showing that the issuance of GDP-indexed bond may help stabilise public debt and so give more room for countercyclical fiscal policy, by conducting a careful general equilibrium welfare...
Type: National Institute Economic Review
The UK’s future relationship with the European Union (EU) remains undecided. Brexit-related uncertainty has led to investment plans being deferred and increased stockbuilding.
Under our main-case forecast, based on a ‘soft’ Brexit and continuing uncertainty, GDP growth continues at around 1½ per...
Type: National Institute Economic Review
Recent data indicates that the global output growth cycle has peaked. We expect global GDP growth to continue, but at a slightly slower pace than in the past two years.
Tariff increases and trade disputes have contributed to slowing growth and have added uncertainty to the global economic outlook....
Type: National Institute Economic Review
Immigration is a key economic and social issue: it has fuelled economic growth and prosperity, changed the demographic composition of the UK and shaped much of the political agenda. It played a role in the outcome of the EU referendum vote, leading the Government to seek to remove free movement...
Type: National Institute Economic Review
As Britain prepares to leave the EU immigration policy has come to the top of the policy agenda. The Brexit vote was seen as a vote against free movement and new policies are aimed at introducing more restrictive controls. The report by the Migration Advisory Committee (MAC) in September 2018...
Type: National Institute Economic Review
In an era of free movement UK employers have had ready access to a supply of labour from the European Union to fill lowskilled jobs. This has enabled them to adopt business models, operating within broader supply chains, that take advantage of this source of labour and the flexibility that many...
Type: National Institute Economic Review
This paper examines the implications of labour migration models that rely on employer sponsorship. According to UK government proposals, long-term migration into high-skilled jobs after Brexit will require workers to be sponsored by employers, while workers in low-skilled and low-wage jobs will...
Type: National Institute Economic Review
Free movement has been at the heart of the Brexit debate, with the government grappling between satisfying public and business demands for restrictive and liberal approaches to immigration respectively. In response the government have advocated temporary migration as a potential solution, including...
Type: National Institute Economic Review
A new skills-based immigration system, with a preference for the highly-skilled, is central to UK policy debates in the Brexit context, arguably responding to majority public opinion on migration. Through qualitative fieldwork with British, Polish and Romanian citizens living in two local...
Type: National Institute Economic Review
Economic activity showed a marked slowing in growth in several countries during the second half of last year. The key issue for the forecast concerns to what extent this slowdown may presage a more widespread and deeper slowing in economic growth. Our central view continues to be that global...
Type: National Institute Economic Review
The main development since our last forecast is that the United Kingdom’s exit from the European Union did not take place on 29 March as had been planned. Instead, the exit date has been pushed back to 31 October 2019, with the possibility of leaving earlier if some way around the existing...
Type: Report
This report establishes for the first time an employment gap between young people from disadvantaged backgrounds and their better-off peers: disadvantaged young people are twice as likely to not be in employment, education or training (NEET). Looking at the regional breakdowns, we see that in the...
Type: Economic Review Preview
This is a preview from the National Institute Economic Review, May 2019, no 248.
Inversions of the yield curve have a good track record of predicting recessions (see Estrella and Mishkin, 1998; Chinn and Kucko, 2015). The 10-year to 3-month spread between US Treasury yields became briefly negative...
Type: Wage Tracker
Pay growth stabilises amidst a tight labour market and Brexit uncertainty
Main points
According to new ONS statistics published this morning, UK average weekly earnings (AWE) expanded by 3.5 per cent including bonuses (3.4 per cent excluding bonuses) in the three months to February...
Type: Economic Review Preview
This is a preview from the National Institute Economic Review, May 2019, no 248. Sustained low investment constitutes a major area of concern for the UK economy, with consequences for living standards in the longer term. In this box, prepared by NIESR Senior Economist Cyrille Lenoel, we review the...
Type: GDP Tracker
The UK economy is on course to grow by 0.4% in the first quarter of 2019.
Main points
The UK economy is on course to grow by 0.4% in the first quarter of 2019 and, if current trends continue, by 0.3% in the second quarter (figure 1).
According to new ONS statistics published this morning...
Type: NIESR Discussion Paper
We use the earliest cohort of English secondary school leavers with newly available Longitudinal Education Outcomes data (622,000 pupils in 2002/03) to compare earnings of people with higher vocational/technical qualifications to those of degree holders. The unusually rich data allow us to estimate...
Type: Journal article/book/chapter
Extending working lives prolongs existing patterns of time spent in work or with family into later life. Analysis of European Social Survey data shows a widening in inequitable domestic divisions of labour in households with post-retirement age workers. We explore partners’ perceptions of older...
Type: Annual Report
Contents
Reference and administrative information
Trustees’ report
Trustees' responsibilities
Independent auditors report
Consolidated statement of financial activities
Consolidated and charity balance sheet
Notes to the financial statements
Type: Report
Executive Summary
Free movement and the extension of EU membership to Eastern and Central European countries have led to a substantial increase in migration to the UK. One result is an increase in the number of pupils who are either migrants themselves or born to recent migrants. In June 2016 the...
Type: Wage Tracker
Pay growth appears to be stabilising at around 3½ per cent per annum
Main points
According to new ONS statistics published this morning, UK average weekly earnings (AWE) expanded by 3.4 per cent (including and excluding bonuses) in the three months to January compared to the year before...
Type: GDP Tracker
The UK economic growth continues at slow pace and is expected to grow by 0.2% in the first quarter of 2019, the same pace as in the fourth quarter of last year.
Main points
The UK economy is on course to grow by 0.2% in the first quarter of 2019, the same pace as in the fourth quarter of...
Type: Policy Paper
Political deadlock and constitutional crisis does not necessarily spell economic doom. The UK economy is at full employment and in desperate need of investment to enhance productive capacity. But waiting for the outcome of this tortuous EU Exit process has produced an economic delay. Output is...
Type: NIESR Discussion Paper
The Global Financial Crisis (GFC) highlighted the importance of a number of unresolved empirical issues in the field of financial stability. First, there is the sign of the relationship between bank competition and financial stability. Second, there is the relation of capital adequacy of banks to...
Type: NIESR Discussion Paper
Following experience in the global financial crisis (GFC), when banks with low leverage ratios were often in severe difficulty, despite high-risk-adjusted capital measures, a leverage ratio was introduced in Basel III to complement the risk-adjusted capital ratio (RAR). Empirical testing of the...
Type: NIESR Discussion Paper
In 2015 the UK government announced the introduction of a new ‘National Living Wage’ (NLW) that would apply to those aged 25 and above from April 2016. At a rate of £7.20, this represented a significant increase of 7.5% over the existing National Minimum Wage (NMW) rate. Previous research has...
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