Publications
Type:
Our monthly GDP Tracker suggests that UK economic growth is set to slow to a quarterly rate of 0.4% in the fourth quarter of 2018 from 0.6% in the third quarter
Main points
UK economic growth looks set to slow to a quarterly rate of 0.4% in the fourth quarter of 2018 from 0.6% in the third...
Type: Policy Paper
You can also view the evidence as submitted to the Treasury Committee on the Treasury Committee website
The UK is set to leave the European Union at the end of March 2019. The process of leaving was triggered by the result of the Advisory Referendum held on 23 June 2016, which led to invocation of...
Type: Journal article/book/chapter
This paper investigates the effect of educational mismatch of R&D workers on firm's returns to innovation. R&D labour mismatch emerges when R&D workers have competencies different from those required by their occupation providing a contribution to innovation lower than in the case of...
Type: Other
Garry Young's note on the methodology used in the report "The Economic Effects of the Prime Minister's Brexit Deal"
Type: Report
Read Garry Young's note on the methodology behind this report here.
This report estimates the economic effects of the government’s proposed Brexit deal that was first published on 14 November 2018, and subsequently expanded.
The impact of any Brexit deal can be broken down into two key components...
Type: GDP Tracker
Our monthly GDP Tracker suggests that the economy will expand by 0.4 per cent in the three months to October and by 0.4 per cent in the final quarter of this year.
Main points
In our view, UK economic growth peaked in the third quarter of this year and will settle at a rate that is close...
Type: Report
The growth of internationally comparative student assessment measures such as the Programme for International Student Assessment (PISA), and the annual publication of the OECDs annual Education at a Glance, provides a global perspective of how children perform on comparable educational tests across...
Type: NiGEM Observations
Abstract:
The trade dispute between the US and China has not abated. On 24th of September, the US imposed a 10 per cent tariff on an additional $200bn imports from China (which, based on 2017 trade data, is around 40 per cent of total US imports of goods and services from China and about 8 per cent...
Type: Report
Prepared for the Cavendish Coalition for the project:
“Incentivising the domestic workforce and securing clear, reasonable routes for immigration both during and after the UK’s exit from the EU”
Executive summary
The UK’s H&SC workforce is under considerable strain to provide services for an...
Type: National Institute Economic Review
The Institute is a world leader in macroeconomic modelling and forecasting. It has produced quarterly economic forecasts for around sixty years, supported by macroeconomic models. The aim of the original builders of macroeconomic models was to transform understanding of how economies worked and use...
Type: National Institute Economic Review
The Institute has long examined overseas developments in order to understand better domestic macroeconomic dynamics.The organising principle for much of the postwar period was simply the impact on net trade with an implicit view on whether the exchange rate was at an appropriate level and, as such...
Type: National Institute Economic Review
This article takes a short personal ‘helicopter ride’ over the main policy issues in the UK labour market, putting them into the context of the developments which have taken place in applied econometrics. We overview NIESR’s role in the study of labour economics in postwar Britain and review some...
Type: National Institute Economic Review
This paper charts the evolution of mainly empirical research at the NIESR over the1970s and 80s. As was all too evident there were very large discrete technical improvements in data handling and manipulation over this period. Less well appreciated were the effects on the economy of major supply-...
Type: National Institute Economic Review
UK labour productivity is significantly lower than that of many other similarly advanced economies and has been so for decades, with negative implications for UK living standards. To make matters worse, during the last ten years labour productivity growth has stalled in most industrialised...
Type: National Institute Economic Review
The National Institute of Economic and Social Research, the UK’s oldest independent economic research institute, was founded exactly eighty years ago. The Institute’s original mission was “to carry out research into the economic and social forces that affect people’s lives and to improve the...
Type: National Institute Economic Review
The global economy is set to continue to grow at a pace of slightly below 4 per cent a year in the near term.
Oil prices have risen further and with some advanced economies appearing to be operating at close to full capacity, there is a risk that inflation will increase. Our expectation is that any...
Type: National Institute Economic Review
The future relationship between the UK and the EU remains unclear. Despite that uncertainty the economy has gained momentum over the last few months, fiscal outturns have been better and financial markets appear to be sanguine about the uncertainty. It is against this backdrop that the Chancellor...
Type: National Institute Economic Review
Bell, D.N.F. and Blanchflower, D.G. (2018), ‘The Lack of Wage Growth and the Falling NAIRU’, National Institute Economic Review, August, pp. R40-R55.Doi: 10.1177/002795011824500114.
From page R48, 2nd column, final paragraph, to page R50, 1st column following the italic text the following...
Type: NIESR Discussion Paper
We develop a simple model that motivates fiscal stabilisation policy, in the presence of economic and control uncertainty. An examination of a real-time database of economic variables and forecasts shows that our knowledge of the current and future state of the economy is subject to significant...
Type: NIESR Discussion Paper
Baumeister and Kilian (2015) combine forecasts from six empirical models to predict real oil prices. In this paper, we broadly reproduce their main economic findings, employing their preferred measures of the real oil price and other real-time variables. Mindful of the importance of Brent crude oil...
Type: Report
New research by the National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR), commissioned by the Tony Blair Institute for Global Change.
Read the report here
Type: Report
Funded by the Leverhulme Trust, researchers from NIESR and Birkbeck explored public attitudes to EU immigration and how people use and respond to evidence on the economic impacts of immigration. Based on 12 focus groups with 105 participants in a Leave voting area of the UK, the report tests out...
Type: GDP Tracker
Our monthly GDP Tracker suggests that the economy will expand by 0.7 per cent in the third quarter of 2018 and by 0.5 per cent in the final quarter of this year.
Figure 1: UK GDP growth (3 months on previous 3 months, per cent)
Main points
Latest economic data confirms that the UK economy...
Type: Policy Paper
This policy paper reviews the report ‘Financing Investment’, commissioned by the Shadow Chancellor from GFC Economics and Clearpoint Advisors, and published on 20th June 2018. The authors say that the report ‘should not be taken to represent the views of the Labour Party or the Shadow Chancellor...
Type: GDP Tracker
UK economic growth gathers momentum
Main points
Latest economic data confirms that the UK economy has recovered from a soft patch earlier in the year and is now growing at a pace that is above potential.
According to new ONS statistics published this morning, the UK economy expanded by 0.6...
Type: GDP Tracker
UK economic growth back on track
Main points
Latest economic data confirms that the UK economy has recovered from a soft patch earlier in the year and is now growing at a pace that is at or slightly above potential.
According to new ONS statistics published this morning, the UK economy expanded...
Type: National Institute Economic Review
In this note, we argue that a considerable part of the explanation for the benign wage growth in the advanced world is the rise in underemployment. In the years after 2008 the unemployment rate understates labour market slack. Underemployment is more important than unemployment in explaining the...
Type: National Institute Economic Review
In housing affordability levels and volatility, there could hardly be a greater contrast than between the UK and Germany. Differences in history, institutions and policies are explored in this paper. Residential housing supply has been far more expansionary in Germany and mortgage credit more...
Type: National Institute Economic Review
This paper summarises the evidence from recent research relating to the British Planning system’s impact on the supply of development. Planning serves important economic and social purposes but it is essential to distinguish between restricting development relative to demand in particular places to...
Type: National Institute Economic Review
This article summarises the long-run decline in housing affordability in England and suggests this is substantially attributable to shortfalls in housing supply. Public attitudes to housing have become increasingly pro-development in recent years and the current policy framework – summarised in the...
Type: National Institute Economic Review
The paper discusses the many reasons why housing policy can appear to be both incoherent and ineffective - with too many Departments involved each with different objectives and a plethora of policies pulling in different directions. Drawing on earlier research findings the paper discusses three...
Type: National Institute Economic Review
Financial stability reports published by central banks and commentaries by international agencies such as the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and Bank for International Settlements (BIS) frequently highlight the high level of debt (private sector or public sector or both) as an important risk...
Type: National Institute Economic Review
Last year the global economy expanded at its fastest pace since 2011. We expect global growth to continue at a similar rate in 2018 and 2019.
We expect the pace of global economic expansion to slow to around 3.5 per cent a year in the medium term unless productivity growth picks up substantially....
Type: National Institute Economic Review
The UK economy is facing an unusual level of uncertainty because of Brexit. This uncertainty primarily stems from the yet to be defined relationship between the UK and the EU but also from the economy’s response to the new framework once it emerges. The UK government’s White Paper, which set out...
Type: Economic Review Preview
This is a preview from the National Institute Economic Review, August 2018, no 245.
"The consumer price index is a fundamental economic statistic for households, firms and policymakers. This number summarises the prices of hundreds of thousands of goods and services across the country. Yet the...
Type: National Institute Economic Review
The housing market is a source of much comment and tension in the UK. Many commentators and policymakers have got into the habit of describing the market as ‘broken’, indeed we take our title from the White Paper issued by the then Department for Communities and Local Government in 2017. In our...
Type: Journal article/book/chapter
performance of industrialized economies. Using a Stochastic Frontier Model (SFM) we estimate the productivity effects of R&D and ICT for a large sample of OECD industries between 1973 and 2007, identifying four channels of transmission: input accumulation, technological change, technical...
Type: Journal article/book/chapter
This paper studies the effect of R&D tax incentives on the research activity of manufacturing firms based in France, Italy, Spain and the UK, over the period 2007–2009. Using a matching procedure, we show that, in all the examined countries but Spain, R&D tax incentives induced a...
Type: Economic Review Preview
This is a preview from the National Institute Economic Review, August 2018, no 245.
This Box, prepared by NIESR Economist Marta Lopresto, addresses the heterogeneity of fiscal positions in the Euro Area, with a view to examining the effectiveness of fiscal expansions undertaken individually and...
Type: Economic Review Preview
This is a preview from the National Institute Economic Review, August 2018, no 245.
This Box, prepared by NIESR Principal Economist Iana Liadze, uses NIESR’s Global Econometric Model (NiGEM) to run stylised scenarios to investigate the impact of recent increases in tariffs on US and Chinese...
Type: Report
The project
Embedding Formative Assessment (EFA) is a whole-school professional development programme aiming to embed the use of effective formative assessment strategies. Dylan Wiliam and Siobhan Leahy, who are experts in formative assessment, designed the intervention and associated materials....
Type: Policy Paper
Abstract
Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) trade models are helpful and widely used laboratories to study the economic effects of changes in trade policy and in particular different Brexit scenarios.
Both the calibration of the structural parameters of the model (e.g. trade elasticity) and the...
Type: GDP Tracker
Our GDP Tracker indicates growth of 0.4 per cent in 2018 Q2 and 0.5 per cent in 2018 Q3
Type: Report
Background
The workplace pension reforms, introduced following the 2008 Pensions Act (and updated as part of the 2011 and 2014 Pensions Acts), require all employers to automatically enrol all eligible employees into a qualifying workplace pension scheme, although employees can choose to opt out....
Type: Report
In our accompanying report, Light at the end of the fiscal tunnel?, we highlighted the challenges the Westminster government is facing in providing good quality public services for the people of the United Kingdom at a time of spending reductions. Despite over eight years of austerity, these...
Type: GDP Estimate
Our monthly estimates of GDP suggest that output grew by 0.2 per cent in the three months ending in May 2018 following growth of 0.1 per cent in the three months ending in April 2018.
Type: Report
In January 2016 the Women and Equalities Committee published a report on Transgender Equality. In this report evidence was identified that suggested transgender people experience significant levels of inequality across a wide range of policy areas. This included inequality in the provision of...
Type: GDP Estimate
Our monthly estimates of GDP suggest that output grew by 0.1 per cent in the three months ending in April 2018 following growth of 0.1 per cent in the three months ending in March 2018.
Type: National Institute Economic Review
In his Spring Statement, the chancellor said that he saw light at the end of the fiscal tunnel. We are afraid that this will turn out to have been an illusion. While public borrowing has been reduced to sustainable levels, our analysis of the prospects for the public finances points to severe...
Type: National Institute Economic Review
This paper introduces a special issue of the Review on how the National Institute Global Econometric Model (NiGEM) is being used to navigate uncertain times. NiGEM is the leading global macroeconomic model, used by both policy-makers and the private sector across the globe for economic forecasting...
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