Publications

Outlier detection methodologies for alternative data sources: International review of current practices

Publication date: 2 Dec 2020 | Publication type: NIESR Discussion Paper | NIESR Author(s): Boshoff, J, Mao, X, Young, G | JEL Classification: C43, E31 | NIESR discussion paper number: 523

This research has been funded by the Office for National Statistics as part of the research programme of the Economic Statistics Centre of Excellence (ESCoE). This paper was first published in July 2020: “Outlier detection methodologies for alternative data sources: International review of current...

Does Obamacare Care? A Fuzzy Difference-in-Discontinuities Approach

Publication date: 26 Nov 2020 | Publication type: NIESR Discussion Paper | External Author(s): Galindo-Silva, H, Somé, N, Tchuente, G | JEL Classification: C13, I12, I13, I18 | NIESR discussion paper number: 522

Abstract This paper explores the use of a fuzzy regression discontinuity design where multiple treatments are applied at the threshold. The identiﬁcation results show that, under the very strong assumption that the change in the probability of treatment at the cutoﬀ is equal across treatments, a...

The Pending Review: Fiscal Policy and Covid-19

Publication date: 25 Nov 2020 | Publication type: Policy Paper | NIESR Author(s): Chadha, J S, Lenoel, C, MacQueen, R

Abstract The Chancellor’s One Year Spending Review provides welcome and much-needed support for many sectors of the economy suffering their largest contraction in modern times. The furlough and business bounce back loan schemes are good examples of how support has been provided but on a time-...

An Economic Model of Health-vs-Wealth Prioritization During COVID-19: Optimal Lockdown, Network Centrality, and Segregation

Publication date: 23 Nov 2020 | Publication type: NIESR Discussion Paper | External Author(s): Pongou, R, Tchuente, G, Tondji, J | JEL Classification: E61, H12, I18, J15, D85 | NIESR discussion paper number: 521

Abstract We address the problem of ﬁnding the optimal lockdown and reopening policy during a pandemic like COVID-19, for a social planner who prioritizes health over short-term wealth accumulation. Agents are connected through a fuzzy network of contacts, and the planner’s objective is to determine...

NIESR CPI Tracker - November 2020

Publication date: 18 Nov 2020 | Publication type: NIESR CPI Tracker | NIESR Author(s): Boshoff, J

Slight pickup in underlying inflation amid high uncertainty Headline inflation increased to 0.7 per cent in the year to October 2020, up from 0.5 per cent in September. Our new analysis of 119,627 locally collected goods and services indicates that increases in clothing and footwear and food and...

When the penny doesn’t drop – Macroeconomic tail risk and currency crises

Publication date: 18 Nov 2020 | Publication type: NIESR Discussion Paper | External Author(s): Duley, C, Gai, P | JEL Classification: F31, G01, E44, N24 | NIESR discussion paper number: 520

Abstract We extend the canonical global game model of currency crises to allow for macroeconomic tail risk. The exchange rate peg is attacked if fundamentals reach a critical threshold, or if there is a suﬃciently large public shock. Large shocks generate doubt amongst investors about both the...

November 2020 GDP Tracker

Publication date: 12 Nov 2020 | Publication type: NIESR GDP Tracker | NIESR Author(s): Whyte, K, MacQueen, R

GDP forecast to contract by 2.2 per cent in Q4 Main points Latest ONS estimates published this morning show that the UK economy grew by15 ½ per cent in the third quarter of 2020, as the economy recovered from the first phase of the Covid-19 pandemic and resultant public health measures. This is...

Bank reserves and broad money In the global financial crisis: a quantitative evaluation

Abstract The Federal Reserve responded to the global financial crisis by initiating an unprecedented expansion of central bank money (bank reserves) once the policy rate had reached the lower bound. To capture the salient features of the crisis, we develop a model where the central bank can provide...

NIESR Wage Tracker - November 2020

Publication date: 10 Nov 2020 | Publication type: NIESR Wage Tracker | NIESR Author(s): Lenoel, C

Recovery in average weekly earnings to stall despite hopes for a new vaccine Main points Annual growth in average weekly earnings, including bonuses, turned positive from -1.2 per cent in the second quarter to 1.3 per cent in the third quarter as employees returned to work from furlough...

How to not miss a productivity revival once again?

Abstract Over the past 15 years productivity growth in advanced economies has significantly slowed, giving rise to the productivity paradox of the New Digital Economy – that is, the notion of increased business spending on ICT assets and digital services without a noticeable increase in...

Real-Time Probabilistic Nowcasts of UK Quarterly GDP Growth Using a Mixed-Frequency Bottom-Up Approach

Read it here We propose a nowcasting system to obtain real-time predictive intervals for the first-release of UK quarterly GDP growth that can be implemented in a menu-driven econometric software. We design a bottom-up approach: forecasts for GDP components (from the output and the expenditure...

Assessing Long-Run Growth Prospects for the UK’s Regions

Read it here The UK faces a number of economic challenges in the short to medium term. Prior to COVID-19, renegotiation of trading arrangements with the European Union was the most prominent of these. We build on existing macroeconomic analysis by assessing prospects for the UK’s regions generated...

Banking Concentration and Financial Crises

Read it here Policymakers need to know if the structure of competition and the degree of banking market concentration change the incidence of financial crises. Previous studies have not always come to clear conclusions. We use a new dataset of 19 countries where we include capital adequacy and...

Modelling State-Contingent Fiscal Rules in the United Kingdom

Read it here I assess a novel rule that was introduced in the UK in 2015. It gave the British government fiscal flexibility whenever GDP growth warranted it. This rule lasted just a year, but it had features worth exploring. I apply solution methods for models with occasionally-binding constraints...

Policy Note: An update to our Review forecast for the November lockdown

Publication date: 4 Nov 2020 | Publication type: Policy Paper | NIESR Author(s): KucukH, Lenoel, C, MacQueen, R

Summary We estimate that the November lockdown will contribute to a fourth quarter contraction in GDP in the region of 3 per cent and reduce year-on-year growth from our November Review main case forecast of -10.5% to between -11.5 and -12%.

The regional distribution of destitution from the Covid-19 crisis

Publication date: 3 Nov 2020 | NIESR Author(s): Bhattacharjee, A, Lisauskaite, E

There is a growing awareness that big shocks such as Covid-19 and Brexit amplify existing inequalities. A plea for engaged research-driven policy debate directed at the 'levelling-up' agenda was the focus of the previous Review together with impacts of the Covid-19 shock upon UK population in...

European Fiscal Rules as a Liability in the Transatlantic Trade Conflict: Lessons from NiGEM Simulations

Read it here Under the Trump administration, a transatlantic trade conflict has been escalating step by step. First, it was about tariffs on steel and aluminium, then about retaliation for the French digital tax, which is suspended until the end of the year. Most recently, the US administration...

The World Economy

Publication date: 2 Nov 2020 | Publication type: National Institute Economic Review | Theme: Macroeconomics | NIESR Author(s): Naisbitt, B, Boshoff, J, Hurst, I, Macchiarelli, C, Mao, X, Sánchez Juanino, P, Thamotheram, C, Whyte, K | Journal: National Institute Economic Review Issue 254 | Publisher: Cambridge University Press

Responding to the threat to public health, lockdowns have led to the deepest contraction in global economic activity since the Second World War, with global GDP in the second quarter 10½ per cent lower than six months earlier. Activity indicators show a rise in global economic activity in the...

Prospects for the UK Economy

The economic contraction resulting from Covid-19 and resultant public health measures has been unprecedented. The public sector has acted as a shock absorber to protect households and businesses, temporarily raising government debt levels, but the recovery has been hampered by uncertainty,...

Labour market policies and productivity

Publication date: 30 Oct 2020 | NIESR Author(s): MacQueen, R

This is a preview from the National Institute Economic Review, November 2020, no 254. The Coronavirus Job Retention Scheme has been hugely successful, saving the jobs of millions at a time when vacancies dropped through the floor. The medium-term path for unemployment will depend on two sets of...

A Country Withered

Publication date: 29 Oct 2020 | Publication type: National Institute Economic Review | NIESR Author(s): Chadha, J S | Journal: National Institute Economic Review Issue 254 | Publisher: Cambridge University Press

This is the Commentary from the National Institute Economic Review, November 2020, no 254, written by NIESR Director Jagjit Chadha. Please find the full Document in pdf. "Economic progress is a disruptive, dynamic force. Change is as pervasive as it is necessary. Crises not only can drive these...

Implications of school re-openings in the UK

Publication date: 28 Oct 2020 | Publication type: Economic Review Preview | NIESR Author(s): Boshoff, J, Bowyer-Crane, C, Stokes, L

This is a preview from the National Institute Economic Review, November 2020, no 254. School closures have generated considerable concerns over the impacts on children’s educational outcomes. Re-opening schools is of vital importance not only for children’s education but also beyond, although...

Government bond term premia during the pandemic

Publication date: 27 Oct 2020 | Publication type: Economic Review Preview | NIESR Author(s): Macchiarelli, C

This is a preview from the National Institute Economic Review, November 2020, no 254. The Box examines the behaviour of government bond yields in the US, the UK and Europe, assessing – in particular – whether investors have demanded higher term premia following an upsurge in uncertainty since...

Growth, productivity and digitalisation in China

Publication date: 27 Oct 2020 | Publication type: Economic Review Preview | NIESR Author(s): Nguyen, D

This is a preview from the National Institute Economic Review, November 2020, no 254. Despite so far successfully bouncing back after Covid-19 shock, China is facing a twin challenge from falling global demand and its rapidly ageing society. To address this challenge, the country needs to raise...

NIESR CPI Tracker - October 2020

Publication date: 21 Oct 2020 | Publication type: NIESR CPI Tracker | NIESR Author(s): Boshoff, J

Underlying inflation moderated due to weak demand and uncertainty After moderating to a multi-year low of 0.2 per cent in the year to August 2020, headline inflation picked up incrementally to 0.5 per cent in the year to September 2020. Our new analysis of 118,876 locally collected goods and...

Reconstructing Macroeconomics after COVID-19: Notes for a First Draft

Publication date: 20 Oct 2020 | Publication type: Policy Paper | NIESR Author(s): DoyleP

Abstract As a discipline, we have contributed much in response to the global challenges posed by the COVID-19 pandemic. But we also have much to learn about what it implies for our profession. And there are key actions—particularly on fiscal, monetary, global forecasting, prudential, sovereign...

Time series models for epidemics: leading indicators, control groups and policy assessment

Abstract This article shows how new time series models can be used to track the progress of an epidemic, forecast key variables and evaluate the effects of policies. A class of univariate time series models was developed by Harvey and Kattuman (2020). Here the framework is extended to modelling...

NIESR Wage Tracker - October 2020

Publication date: 13 Oct 2020 | Publication type: NIESR Wage Tracker | NIESR Author(s): Lenoel, C

Covid-19 continues to suppress private sector pay Main points According to ONS statistics published this morning, average weekly earnings, including bonuses, were unchanged in the three months to August and declined by 0.8 per cent in real terms. The construction sector was worst hit with pay...

October 2020 GDP Tracker

Publication date: 9 Oct 2020 | Publication type: NIESR GDP Tracker | NIESR Author(s): Whyte, K

Recovery to stall due to heightened Covid-19 uncertainty Main points Latest ONS estimates published this morning suggest that the UK economy grew by 8.0 per cent in the three months to August, broadly in line with our forecast last month (figure 1). All major sectors remain below their February...

Banking Concentration and Financial Crises

Publication date: 5 Oct 2020 | Publication type: NIESR Discussion Paper | External Author(s): Barrell, R, Karim, D | JEL Classification: E44; G01; G18; | NIESR discussion paper number: 516

Abstract Policy makers need to know if the structure of competition and the degree of banking market concentration change the incidence of financial crises. Previous studies have not always come to clear conclusions. We use a new dataset of 19 countries where we include capital adequacy and house...

Macroprudential Policy, Monetary Policy and the Bank Interest Rate Margin

Abstract Against the background of the policy interest in the interaction of monetary policy and macroprudential policy, we present empirical estimates of effects of macroprudential policies alongside monetary policy on banks’ interest rate margins (net interest income/average assets). This is an...

Recruitment of workers into low-paid occupations and industries: an evidence review

Publication date: 21 Sep 2020 | Theme: Employment & Social policy | NIESR Author(s): Runge, J | External Author(s): Hudson-Sharp, N | Report to: Equality and Human Rights Commission

In December 2019, the National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) was commissioned to undertake a rapid evidence review focused on the recruitment of workers into low-paid occupations and industries. The purpose of the review was to find out whether people with protected...

NIESR CPI Tracker - September 2020

Publication date: 16 Sep 2020 | Publication type: NIESR CPI Tracker | NIESR Author(s): Boshoff, J

Headline Inflation at Multi-Year Low but Underlying Inflation Unchanged Consumer price inflation has moderated to a multi-year low of 0.2 per cent in the year to August 2020, as per data released by the ONS. The impact of the government’s ‘Eat-out to help-out’ scheme was particularly noticeable in...

NIESR Wage Tracker - September 2020

Publication date: 15 Sep 2020 | Publication type: NIESR Wage Tracker | NIESR Author(s): Lenoel, C

Private Sector Pay to Decline Further in Q3 as Employment Falls Main points According to new ONS statistics published this morning, average weekly earnings, including bonuses, declined at an annual rate of 1 per cent in the three months to July, or 1.8 per cent in real terms. The construction...

Projection of demand for Trussell Trust food banks due to the Covid-19 crisis: Quarterly at the UK (national) level

Publication date: 14 Sep 2020 | Publication type: Policy Paper | External Author(s): National Institute of Economic and Social Research, in association with Heriot-Watt University

National Institute of Economic and Social Research, in association with Heriot-Watt University Abstract The COVID-19 crisis is continuing to have devastating consequences for the UK population, particularly the poorest segments of society. Based on quarterly macroeconomic scenarios of economic...

September 2020 GDP Tracker

Publication date: 11 Sep 2020 | Publication type: NIESR GDP Tracker

UK economy on rocky road to recovery with growth forecast of around 2 per cent in August Figure 1 - UK GDP growth (3 months on previous 3 months, per cent) Main points Latest ONS estimates published this morning show that the UK economy contracted by 7.6 per cent in the three months to July,...

Economics in a Public Health Crisis

Publication date: 2 Sep 2020 | Publication type: Journal article/book/chapter | NIESR Author(s): Chadha, J S

This article was originally written for the Summer 2020 issue of Science in Parliament by NIESR Director, Professor Jagjit Chadha. NIESR is grateful for the permission from the Parliamentary and Scientific Committee to reproduce this article. “Q487 Mr Baker: I need to come to my last question,...

August 2020 GDP Tracker

Publication date: 12 Aug 2020 | Publication type: NIESR GDP Tracker | Theme: Macroeconomics | NIESR Author(s): Whyte, K

GDP picking up after recession confirmed Main points Latest ONS estimates published this morning show that the UK economy contracted by 20.4 per cent in the second quarter of 2020, thereby confirming the UK’s first recession since the global financial crisis. This outturn is largely in line with...

NIESR Wage Tracker - August 2020

Publication date: 11 Aug 2020 | Publication type: NIESR Wage Tracker | Theme: Macroeconomics | NIESR Author(s): Young, G

Pay Growth Turns Negative Main points According to new ONS statistics published this morning, average weekly earnings, excluding bonuses, grew at an annual rate of -0.2 per cent in the three months to June, a fall of 0.8 per cent in real terms. When bonuses are included, total pay fell at an...

COVID-19 impacts on destitution in the UK

Publication date: 29 Jul 2020 | Publication type: National Institute Economic Review | NIESR Author(s): Bhattacharjee, A, Lisauskaite, E | JEL Classification: E24; I32; C553; J82; L00; R11 | Journal: National Institute Economic Review Issue 253 | Publisher: Cambridge University Press

We use microsimulation combined with a model of the COVID-19 impacts on individuals and households to obtain projections of households in destitution in the United Kingdom. The projections are estimated at two levels: aggregate quarterly for the UK, for all quarters of 2020; and annual for 2020...

Living with Covid-19: balancing costs against benefits in the face of the virus

Publication date: 29 Jul 2020 | Publication type: National Institute Economic Review | External Author(s): Miles, D, Stedman, M, Heald, A | JEL Classification: I18; D61; E65 | Journal: National Institute Economic Review Issue 253 | Publisher: Cambridge University Press

This paper analyses the costs and benefits of lockdown policies in the face of COVID-19. What matters for people is the quality and length of lives and one should measure costs and benefits in terms of those things. That raises difficulties in measurement, particularly in valuing potential lives...

UK interregional inequality in a historical and international comparative context

Publication date: 29 Jul 2020 | Publication type: National Institute Economic Review | External Author(s): Carrascal-Incera, A, McCann, P, Ortega-Argilés, R, Rodríguez-Pose, A | JEL Classification: R11, R12, O47, O50 | Journal: National Institute Economic Review Issue 253 | Publisher: Cambridge University Press

This paper explores the nature and scale of inter-regional and inter-urban inequalities in the UK in the context of international comparisons and our aim is to identify the extent to which such inequalities are associated with strong national economic performance. In order to do this, we first...

Introduction: The Prospects for Regional Disparities in the UK in Times of Brexit and Covid-19

Publication date: 29 Jul 2020 | Publication type: National Institute Economic Review | NIESR Author(s): Bhattacharjee, A, Nguyen, D, Venables, T | Journal: National Institute Economic Review Issue 253 | Publisher: Cambridge University Press

Regional or spatial inequalities are a concern in most (if not all) countries and with the current ‘levellingup’ agenda they are also a priority of policymakers in the UK. Most often spatial inequalities are analysed as differences in GDP per capita or productivity at some subnational level of...

Regional disparities in labour productivity and the role of capital stock

Publication date: 29 Jul 2020 | Publication type: National Institute Economic Review | Theme: Trade, Investment & Productivity | External Author(s): Gardiner,B; Fingleton, B; Martin, B | JEL Classification: C23, C33, D24, O47, R12 | Journal: National Institute Economic Review Issue 253 | Publisher: Cambridge University Press

This paper reports on the availability of regional capital stock data, in the form of new/updated regional (NUTS2 level) capital stock estimates, building on an approach (Perpetual Inventory Method) which had been previously developed for the European Commission. The particular focus here is on the...

Understanding regional economic performance and resilience in the UK: trends since the global financial crisis

We investigate economic resilience of UK regions before, during and after the 2007/8 global financial crisis. We date business cycle turning points in real output, employment and productivity to assess the resilience dimensions of resistance, recovery and renewal and rank the economic resilience of...

Reconciled estimates and nowcasts of regional output in the UK

Publication date: 29 Jul 2020 | Publication type: National Institute Economic Review | Theme: Trade, Investment & Productivity | NIESR Author(s): Mitchell, J | External Author(s): Koop, G, McIntyre, S, Poon, A | JEL Classification: C11, C53, O4, R1 | Journal: National Institute Economic Review Issue 253 | Publisher: Oxford University Press, Oxford

There is renewed interest in levelling up the regions of the UK. The combination of social and political discontent, and the sluggishness of key UK macroeconomic indicators like productivity growth, has led to increased interest in understanding the regional economies of the UK. In turn, this has...

Prospects for the World Economy

Publication date: 28 Jul 2020 | Publication type: National Institute Economic Review | Theme: Macroeconomics | NIESR Author(s): Naisbitt, B, Boshoff, J, Holland, D, Hurst, I, Kara, A, Macchiarelli, C, Mao, X, Sánchez Juanino, P, Thamotheram, C, Whyte, K

The Covid-19 pandemic and the effects of the measures taken to protect lives continue to dominate the short-term global economic outlook. In still highly uncertain times, there are widespread falls in GDP as lockdowns pause many forms of economic activity. Some countries are now starting to...

Prospects for the UK Economy

The combination of the Covid-19 pandemic and the public health measures taken to limit its spread here and overseas are forecast to contribute to a fall in GDP of 10 per cent in 2020. The level of economic activity in the final quarter of last year is not likely to be regained much before the...

The macroeconomics of de-globalisation

Publication date: 27 Jul 2020 | Publication type: Economic Review Preview | NIESR Author(s): Liadze, I, Kara, A

This is a preview from the National Institute Economic Review, August 2020, no 253. The Covid-19 pandemic has revived protectionist measures. The most proximate trigger for this switch is a desire to prioritise national security interests and public health concerns over the long- standing...

Firm creation in the UK during lockdown

Publication date: 23 Jul 2020 | Publication type: Economic Review Preview | External Author(s): Duncan, A.; León-Ledesma, M.; Savagar, A

This is a preview from the National Institute Economic Review, August 2020, no 253. Business creation is an informative measure of real economic activity. During exceptional events such as the Covid-19 pandemic, it is important to develop tools that allow us to measure in real time the effect of...

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