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Publication type

  • Annual Report (23)
  • Business Conditions Forum Summary (3)
  • Conference and seminar output (461)
  • Economic Review Preview (30)
  • GDP Estimate (162)
  • General Election Briefing (18)
  • Journal article/book/chapter (161)
  • National Institute Economic Review (733)
  • NIESR CPI Tracker (1)
  • NIESR Discussion Paper (498)
  • NIESR GDP Tracker (18)
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  • NIESR Wage Tracker (10)
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  • Press and broadcast (362)
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  • Topical Briefing (4)

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Publications

December GDP Tracker
Type: NIESR GDP Tracker
Growth Petering Out at End of Year Please find the full commentary in the attachment
UK General Election Analysis 2019
Type: General Election Briefing
Foreward In this election campaign we are seeing the consequences of the Brexit impasse across a raft of policy areas.  With infrastructure and investment expenditures continuing to be deferred, we are seeing a rash of spending promises to placate a disillusioned electorate.  But what we continue...
The Macroeconomics of Parties' Tax and Spending Plans
Type: General Election Briefing
Most economic analyses of parties’ tax and spending promises treat the government’s budget like that of a household, ignoring the impact of proposed policies on the economy.  This briefing aims to fill this gap by providing a macroeconomic assessment of announced fiscal policies. It focuses on: The...
Past, Present and Future of Immigration
Type: General Election Briefing
Immigration was one of the main issues around the UK’s decision to leave the EU. The outcome of the General Election is likely to determine the design of a future immigration system, with party proposals ranging from the introduction of a post-Brexit “Australian-style” points system, to continuing...
UK Trade and Trade Policy after Brexit
Type: General Election Briefing
International trade plays a crucial role in fostering economic growth across a wide range of industries at the national and the regional level. The prospects for UK’s international trade are closely tied to the future relationship between the UK and the EU. Voters are being offered a wide spectrum...
The Economic Backdrop
Type: General Election Briefing
This briefing focuses on: The state of the UK economy and UK-wide living standards going into the election. The causes of slow growth and the need for supply-side reforms.   Visit our General Election 2019 site  
Places and Spaces: Mapping Britain's Regional Divides
Type: General Election Briefing
Economic performance varies widely across towns, cities and rural areas in the UK. Spatial disparities are found in all industrialised countries, although on some measures the UK is significantly more unequal than comparable countries. These disparities are matter for people because local social...
Where is the money coming from?
Type: General Election Briefing
The main political parties have meticulously set out costings of their spending plans for the next Parliament and how they would finance them if elected.  This briefing focuses on: The fiscal rules adopted by the political parties. The underlying fiscal position and how it has changed since the...
The Fiscal Rules
Type: General Election Briefing
The election campaign has focussed on the tax and spending plans of the main political parties, this brief outlines: The case for fiscal rules as part of the country’s strategy of macroeconomic management. The need for comprehensive reform of the process of setting fiscal policy. This brief...
Education policy priorities and a look into the Manifestos
Type: General Election Briefing
Overview Labour, Conservatives and Lib Dems have all pledged to increase the education budget. But we ask, from early years via schools to further and higher education: What can be done to make the education system more effective and fairer? How can outcomes across different levels of education be...
The Future Path of The Minimum Wage
Type: General Election Briefing
Labour and the Conservatives both plan historically high increases to the UK minimum wage, aiming to use the minimum wage as an important tool in raising living standards. This briefing focuses on: The current minimum wage structure and how the rates are determined; The future path of the National...
The Economic and Fiscal Impact of Brexit
Type: General Election Briefing
Brexit dominates political debate and divides opinion.  The main political parties have different positions on this issue, ranging from cancelling Brexit (Liberal Democrats) to seeking a ‘clean-break’ (Brexit Party). The Prime Minster wants to ‘get Brexit done’ on the terms of the deal negotiated...
Summary of the NIESR Business Conditions Forum November 2019 - International Trade
Type: Business Conditions Forum Summary
  International Trade The meeting discussed latest trends in international trade. The discussions were centred around the following five questions: 1. How much has global trade slowed? 2. Is the slowdown structural? 3. What are the effects from China-US tariffs on UK? 4. What risks arise from the...
NIESR CPI Tracker - November 2019
Type: NIESR CPI Tracker
Change to Energy Price Caps Impacts Inflation According to figures released this morning by the ONS, consumer price index inflation decreased to 1.5 per cent in the year to October 2019. Our new analysis of 129,752 locally-collected goods and services prices suggest that consumers benefitted from...
NIESR Wage Tracker - November 2019
Type: NIESR Wage Tracker
Uncertainty Taking Toll on Labour Market Main points According to new ONS statistics published this morning, UK average weekly earnings (AWE) expanded by 3.6 per cent (excluding and including bonuses) in the three months to September compared to the year before (figure 1). With CPI inflation at 1....
November 2019 GDP Tracker
Type: NIESR GDP Tracker
Output Stagnating After Mid-Year Rebound Please find the full commentary in the attachment
NIESR Briefing: Youth Rates: The National Minimum Wage for Younger Workers
Type: Topical Briefing
When advising government, the LPC’s main objective in setting the Youth Rates is: "to ensure that the NMW’s structure and the level of the youth rates enables young people   to make a successful transition from education to employment, and to access roles which   provide them with the work...
Understanding employers’ use of the National Minimum Wage youth rates
Type: Report
Right from their inception the minimum wage rates have included age-related bands intended to give young people protection in the labour market. Initially there were only two age bands, 18-21 and 22+. With the introduction of the National Living Wage in 2016 there are now four age bands and an...
National Institute Economic Review 250th Edition - Table of Contents
Type: National Institute Economic Review
Forecast SummariesThe UK Economy: Forecast Summary The UK EconomyProspects for the UK Economy Arno Hantzsche and Garry Young Forecast SummariesThe World Economy: Forecast Summary The UK EconomyThe Economic Impact of Prime Minister Johnson's New Brexit Deal Arno Hantzsche and Garry Young The World...
Beyond Brexit: a programme for UK reform
Type: National Institute Economic Review
We not only live in interesting times but also dangerous ones. The weaknesses of the post-war consensus on macroeconomic control was laid bare by Dow’s (1964) magisterial analysis and the subsequent implosion of demand management in the 1970s (see Blackaby, 1978; and Britton, 1991). It is becoming...
Introduction to National Institute Economic Review no 250
Type: National Institute Economic Review
Regardless of the particular form that Brexit ultimately takes, the UK faces an unprecedented set of political, economic, and social challenges. While the causes are many and complex, they amount to a crisis of confidence and popular trust that has overturned the normal logic of political practice...
Maintaining stable macroeconomic conditions
Type: National Institute Economic Review
The UK economy faces more than usually uncertain times. Outside the European Union, and in an increasingly  challenging  global environment characterised by ageing populations, climate change, populism, protectionism, and more, the country needs to chart a new course. This may well require...
Supporting dynamic economic adjustment
Type: National Institute Economic Review
Economic policymaking in the UK has historically focussed more on the demand side than on the supply side of the economy. Yet it is on the supply side – the way in which an economy adapts to change while growing productive capacity on a sustainable basis – that medium- to long-term economic...
Developing trade
Type: National Institute Economic Review
The UK faces no easy options in determining how to develop its approach to international trade post-Brexit. If it finally decides to leave the European Customs Union and Single Market, it faces the possibility either of simply crashing out of the EU without a deal; trying to form market-access...
Developing trade in services
Type: National Institute Economic Review
Services are simultaneously the most important sector of the UK economy and the sector facing the biggest challenge as a result of Brexit. The prospective departure from the European Single Market reduces the UK to the status of ‘3rd country’ in respect of services. Accessing the internal market...
Reorienting foreign policy
Type: National Institute Economic Review
After Brexit, the UK must show that it has a voice. It will need to re-earn international respect, and in particular establish the concept of a ‘global Britain’ on the basis of performance, not rhetoric. That means re-establishing a strong network of relationships around the world in support of its...
Updating security and defence policy
Type: National Institute Economic Review
Threats to the security of the UK are evolving with the changing nature of conflict and balance of power in the world. They are multiple and fragmented, and domestic and online as well as overseas in nature: principally state-based threats such as posed by Russian activity; terrorism; cyber-attacks...
Formulating industrial policy
Type: National Institute Economic Review
Alongside the challenge of maintaining economic competitiveness in the face of great uncertainty, Brexit brings an opportunity for the government to set out a new industrial strategy. The case for doing so rests on the need to address areas of persistent structural weakness in the UK economy,...
Securing decarbonisation and growth
Type: National Institute Economic Review
The need to decarbonise the economy in order to slow the pace of climate change is now recognised as one of the most pressing international policy challenges. While the UK cannot by itself materially affect global climate change, it has an opportunity to play an influential role, both by persuading...
Improving infrastructure
Type: National Institute Economic Review
Infrastructure investment can substantially increase a nation’s capital stock and thereby boost productive, or supplyside, potential. It can also be useful as a tool in macroeconomic stabilisation, while public spending on quality infrastructure projects has been shown to have significantly greater...
Redesigning housing policy
Type: National Institute Economic Review
Discussion of the UK’s housing crisis is of long date, and tends to focus on a simple story about a mismatch in housing supply and demand and the consequent need to build more homes. Yet the reality is more complex with multiple sub-plots including social housing, stress in the private rented...
Effective devolution
Type: National Institute Economic Review
Brexit creates deep challenges for the UK’s structure of governance; not least concerning the degree and manner in which powers are devolved within one of the most centralised countries in the world. Departing from the EU is likely to exacerbate regional inequalities and possibly social divide,...
Improving governance
Type: National Institute Economic Review
Government post-Brexit will face sustained and difficult challenges as the UK adjusts to its new situation. Yet these challenges risk being exacerbated by fundamental changes in UK political debate that are affecting the perceived legitimacy and effectiveness of the system and structures of...
Reducing inequalities
Type: National Institute Economic Review
A backlash against numerous inequalities – and in particular against perceived unfairness in society – is a significant driver of the UK’s current political malaise. Addressing inequalities between income groups, regions and generations will thus be key to re-establishing faith in government and...
The economic impact of Prime Minister Johnson's New Brexit Deal
Type: National Institute Economic Review
On 17 October 2019, the UK government and its EU counterparts concluded a renegotiation of the previous withdrawal agreement and political declaration which sets out the framework for their future relationship. The government hoped that this would enable the UK to leave the EU on 31 October 2019...
Prospects for the UK economy: Forecast Summary
Type: National Institute Economic Review
The economic outlook is clouded by significant economic and political uncertainty and depends critically on the United Kingdom’s trading relationships after Brexit. Domestic economic weakness is further amplified by slowing global demand. We would not expect economic activity to be boosted by the...
World overview: Forecast summary
Type: National Institute Economic Review
Increases in tariffs and uncertainty about both future tariff impositions and their potential implications for production activity have continued to have negative effects on global trade and industrial production. Several central banks, facing below target inflation, have loosened monetary policy...
Could a fiscal boost raise inflation in the Euro Area?
Type: Economic Review Preview
  This is a preview from the National Institute Economic Review, November 2019, no 250.   The issue of whether fiscal and monetary policy should be coordinated is a hotly debated topic in the Euro Area. In September, the ECB cut the deposit interest rate and announced a new Quantitative Easing...
The (in)effectiveness of the latest round of ECB asset purchases
Type: Economic Review Preview
  This is a preview from the National Institute Economic Review, November 2019, no 250.   On 12 September 2019, the ECB Governing Council announced a comprehensive package of stimulatory measures in response to a weaker outlook for growth and inflation and a concern that inflation expectations were...
A Century of High Frequency UK Macroeconomic Statistics: A Data Inventory
Type: NIESR Discussion Paper
This paper provides an inventory of the available macroeconomic statistics in the UK for the last hundred years or so.  The focus is on documenting the higher frequency (daily, monthly and quarterly) macroeconomic data that are available after the World War 1, rather than longer run annual time...
What does leadership look like in schools and does it matter for school performance?
Type: NIESR Discussion Paper
We consider the role played by school leaders in improving pupil attainment, going beyond previous studies by exploring the leadership roles of deputy and assistant heads and classroom-based teachers with additional leadership responsibilities. Using panel data for state-funded secondary schools in...
Below the Aggregate: A Sectoral Account of the UK Productivity Puzzle
Type: NIESR Discussion Paper
We analyse new industry-level data to re-examine the UK productivity puzzle. We carry out an accounting exercise that allows us to distinguish general macroeconomic patterns from sector trends and idiosyncrasies, providing a roadmap for anyone interested in explaining the puzzle. We focus on the UK...
The evolution of tax implicit value judgements, redistribution and income inequality in the UK: 1968 to 2015
Type: NIESR Discussion Paper
An issue of interest in the literature that explores the drivers of inequality is the distributional bearing of tax and transfer policy, where an important theme concerns changes in the relative treatment of alternative population subgroups.  We develop an empirical approach for quantifying the...
NIESR Wage Tracker - October 2019
Type: NIESR Wage Tracker
Labour market weathering an increasingly difficult economic environment ​ Main points According to new ONS statistics published this morning, UK average weekly earnings (AWE) expanded by 3.8 per cent (excluding and including bonuses) in the three months to August compared to the year before (figure...
Renewing our Monetary Vows: Open Letters to the Governor of the Bank of England
Type: NIESR Occasional Paper
Please see table of contents here You can download the mobi file here for use on a Kindle; the pdf can be saved and read on an iPad using the iBooks app. To order a paperback copy, please see here. Over the past 20 years, considerable progress has been made in the science of monetary policy. This...
October 2019 GDP Tracker
Type: NIESR GDP Tracker
    GDP DATA BETTER THAN EXPECTED   Figure 1 - UK GDP growth (3 months on previous 3 months, per cent)   Please find the full commentary in attachment  
Total Reward and Pensions in the UK by Occupation in the Public and Private Sectors
Type: Report
Over the last 10 years the relative value of public and private sector remuneration packages, including pensions, has changed markedly. This report reviews a comprehensive measure of Total Reward (TR) which includes not just pay, but pensions and other ‘benefits in kind’, evaluates it as the...
NIESR Occasional Papers, 1942-2004
Type: NIESR Occasional Paper
From 1942 to 2004, NIESR produced 57 Occasional Papers. Over the years, subjects covered pension reform, productivity, migration, education and more. On Tuesday 15th October 2019, we will be relaunching the series - watch this space! NIESR Occasional papers Number Year Author Title 1...
NIESR Briefing: Industry and Regional Effects of a No-Deal Brexit
Type: Topical Briefing
  Ever since EU exit has started featuring in the public debate, NIESR has contributed analyses of the long-run economic impact of different types of Brexit, including the deal proposed by the government in November 2018, a customs union deal and no deal. Since the EU referendum, NIESR has...
NIESR Wage Tracker - September 2019
Type: NIESR Wage Tracker
  Strong earnings data driven by July bonuses and public sector pay but further pick-up unlikely   Figure 1 – Average weekly earnings growth (per cent per annum)   Main points According to new ONS statistics published this morning, UK average weekly earnings (AWE) expanded by 3.8 per cent...
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