Publications
Type: NIESR CPI Tracker
Change to Energy Price Caps Impacts Inflation
According to figures released this morning by the ONS, consumer price index inflation decreased to 1.5 per cent in the year to October 2019. Our new analysis of 129,752 locally-collected goods and services prices suggest that consumers benefitted from...
Type: NIESR Wage Tracker
Uncertainty Taking Toll on Labour Market
Main points
According to new ONS statistics published this morning, UK average weekly earnings (AWE) expanded by 3.6 per cent (excluding and including bonuses) in the three months to September compared to the year before (figure 1).
With CPI inflation at 1....
Type: NIESR GDP Tracker
Output Stagnating After Mid-Year Rebound
Please find the full commentary in the attachment
Type: Topical Briefing
When advising government, the LPC’s main objective in setting the Youth Rates is:
"to ensure that the NMW’s structure and the level of the youth rates enables young people to make a successful transition from education to employment, and to access roles which provide them with the work...
Type: Report
Right from their inception the minimum wage rates have included age-related bands intended to give young people protection in the labour market. Initially there were only two age bands, 18-21 and 22+. With the introduction of the National Living Wage in 2016 there are now four age bands and an...
Type: National Institute Economic Review
Forecast SummariesThe UK Economy: Forecast Summary
The UK EconomyProspects for the UK Economy Arno Hantzsche and Garry Young
Forecast SummariesThe World Economy: Forecast Summary
The UK EconomyThe Economic Impact of Prime Minister Johnson's New Brexit Deal Arno Hantzsche and Garry Young
The World...
Type: National Institute Economic Review
We not only live in interesting times but also dangerous ones. The weaknesses of the post-war consensus on macroeconomic control was laid bare by Dow’s (1964) magisterial analysis and the subsequent implosion of demand management in the 1970s (see Blackaby, 1978; and Britton, 1991). It is becoming...
Type: National Institute Economic Review
Regardless of the particular form that Brexit ultimately takes, the UK faces an unprecedented set of political, economic, and social challenges. While the causes are many and complex, they amount to a crisis of confidence and popular trust that has overturned the normal logic of political practice...
Type: National Institute Economic Review
The UK economy faces more than usually uncertain times. Outside the European Union, and in an increasingly challenging global environment characterised by ageing populations, climate change, populism, protectionism, and more, the country needs to chart a new course. This may well require...
Type: National Institute Economic Review
Economic policymaking in the UK has historically focussed more on the demand side than on the supply side of the economy. Yet it is on the supply side – the way in which an economy adapts to change while growing productive capacity on a sustainable basis – that medium- to long-term economic...
Type: National Institute Economic Review
The UK faces no easy options in determining how to develop its approach to international trade post-Brexit. If it finally decides to leave the European Customs Union and Single Market, it faces the possibility either of simply crashing out of the EU without a deal; trying to form market-access...
Type: National Institute Economic Review
Services are simultaneously the most important sector of the UK economy and the sector facing the biggest challenge as a result of Brexit. The prospective departure from the European Single Market reduces the UK to the status of ‘3rd country’ in respect of services. Accessing the internal market...
Type: National Institute Economic Review
After Brexit, the UK must show that it has a voice. It will need to re-earn international respect, and in particular establish the concept of a ‘global Britain’ on the basis of performance, not rhetoric. That means re-establishing a strong network of relationships around the world in support of its...
Type: National Institute Economic Review
Threats to the security of the UK are evolving with the changing nature of conflict and balance of power in the world. They are multiple and fragmented, and domestic and online as well as overseas in nature: principally state-based threats such as posed by Russian activity; terrorism; cyber-attacks...
Type: National Institute Economic Review
Alongside the challenge of maintaining economic competitiveness in the face of great uncertainty, Brexit brings an opportunity for the government to set out a new industrial strategy. The case for doing so rests on the need to address areas of persistent structural weakness in the UK economy,...
Type: National Institute Economic Review
The need to decarbonise the economy in order to slow the pace of climate change is now recognised as one of the most pressing international policy challenges. While the UK cannot by itself materially affect global climate change, it has an opportunity to play an influential role, both by persuading...
Type: National Institute Economic Review
Infrastructure investment can substantially increase a nation’s capital stock and thereby boost productive, or supplyside, potential. It can also be useful as a tool in macroeconomic stabilisation, while public spending on quality infrastructure projects has been shown to have significantly greater...
Type: National Institute Economic Review
Discussion of the UK’s housing crisis is of long date, and tends to focus on a simple story about a mismatch in housing supply and demand and the consequent need to build more homes. Yet the reality is more complex with multiple sub-plots including social housing, stress in the private rented...
Type: National Institute Economic Review
Brexit creates deep challenges for the UK’s structure of governance; not least concerning the degree and manner in which powers are devolved within one of the most centralised countries in the world. Departing from the EU is likely to exacerbate regional inequalities and possibly social divide,...
Type: National Institute Economic Review
Government post-Brexit will face sustained and difficult challenges as the UK adjusts to its new situation. Yet these challenges risk being exacerbated by fundamental changes in UK political debate that are affecting the perceived legitimacy and effectiveness of the system and structures of...
Type: National Institute Economic Review
A backlash against numerous inequalities – and in particular against perceived unfairness in society – is a significant driver of the UK’s current political malaise. Addressing inequalities between income groups, regions and generations will thus be key to re-establishing faith in government and...
Type: National Institute Economic Review
On 17 October 2019, the UK government and its EU counterparts concluded a renegotiation of the previous withdrawal agreement and political declaration which sets out the framework for their future relationship. The government hoped that this would enable the UK to leave the EU on 31 October 2019...
Type: National Institute Economic Review
The economic outlook is clouded by significant economic and political uncertainty and depends critically on the United Kingdom’s trading relationships after Brexit. Domestic economic weakness is further amplified by slowing global demand.
We would not expect economic activity to be boosted by the...
Type: National Institute Economic Review
Increases in tariffs and uncertainty about both future tariff impositions and their potential implications for production activity have continued to have negative effects on global trade and industrial production.
Several central banks, facing below target inflation, have loosened monetary policy...
Type: Economic Review Preview
This is a preview from the National Institute Economic Review, November 2019, no 250.
The issue of whether fiscal and monetary policy should be coordinated is a hotly debated topic in the Euro Area. In September, the ECB cut the deposit interest rate and announced a new Quantitative Easing...
Type: Economic Review Preview
This is a preview from the National Institute Economic Review, November 2019, no 250.
On 12 September 2019, the ECB Governing Council announced a comprehensive package of stimulatory measures in response to a weaker outlook for growth and inflation and a concern that inflation expectations were...
Type: NIESR Discussion Paper
This paper provides an inventory of the available macroeconomic statistics in the UK for the last hundred years or so. The focus is on documenting the higher frequency (daily, monthly and quarterly) macroeconomic data that are available after the World War 1, rather than longer run annual time...
Type: NIESR Discussion Paper
We consider the role played by school leaders in improving pupil attainment, going beyond previous studies by exploring the leadership roles of deputy and assistant heads and classroom-based teachers with additional leadership responsibilities. Using panel data for state-funded secondary schools in...
Type: NIESR Discussion Paper
We analyse new industry-level data to re-examine the UK productivity puzzle. We carry out an accounting exercise that allows us to distinguish general macroeconomic patterns from sector trends and idiosyncrasies, providing a roadmap for anyone interested in explaining the puzzle. We focus on the UK...
Type: NIESR Discussion Paper
An issue of interest in the literature that explores the drivers of inequality is the distributional bearing of tax and transfer policy, where an important theme concerns changes in the relative treatment of alternative population subgroups. We develop an empirical approach for quantifying the...
Type: NIESR Wage Tracker
Labour market weathering an increasingly difficult economic environment
Main points
According to new ONS statistics published this morning, UK average weekly earnings (AWE) expanded by 3.8 per cent (excluding and including bonuses) in the three months to August compared to the year before (figure...
Type: NIESR Occasional Paper
Please see table of contents here
You can download the mobi file here for use on a Kindle; the pdf can be saved and read on an iPad using the iBooks app. To order a paperback copy, please see here.
Over the past 20 years, considerable progress has been made in the science of monetary policy. This...
Type: NIESR GDP Tracker
GDP DATA BETTER THAN EXPECTED
Figure 1 - UK GDP growth (3 months on previous 3 months, per cent)
Please find the full commentary in attachment
Type: Report
Over the last 10 years the relative value of public and private sector remuneration packages, including pensions, has changed markedly. This report reviews a comprehensive measure of Total Reward (TR) which includes not just pay, but pensions and other ‘benefits in kind’, evaluates it as the...
Type: NIESR Occasional Paper
From 1942 to 2004, NIESR produced 57 Occasional Papers. Over the years, subjects covered pension reform, productivity, migration, education and more. On Tuesday 15th October 2019, we will be relaunching the series - watch this space!
NIESR Occasional papers
Number
Year
Author
Title
1...
Type: Topical Briefing
Ever since EU exit has started featuring in the public debate, NIESR has contributed analyses of the long-run economic impact of different types of Brexit, including the deal proposed by the government in November 2018, a customs union deal and no deal. Since the EU referendum, NIESR has...
Type: NIESR Wage Tracker
Strong earnings data driven by July bonuses and public sector pay but further pick-up unlikely
Figure 1 – Average weekly earnings growth (per cent per annum)
Main points
According to new ONS statistics published this morning, UK average weekly earnings (AWE) expanded by 3.8 per cent...
Type: NIESR GDP Tracker
Economic growth resumes for now
Figure 1 - UK GDP growth (3 months on previous 3 months, per cent)
Please find the full commentary in the attachment
Type: Economic Review Preview
In this box, which we published in our latest Review, NIER No. 249 August 2019, we evaluate the macroeconomic effects of expansionary fiscal policy measures on the UK economy. We consider two fiscal packages, one based on Labour Party policy and one based on some of the policies put forward...
Type: Economic Review Preview
This concise summary aims to illustrate the assumptions underpinning our view on the aggregate impact of a No-Deal Brexit on the UK economy, which we published in our latest Review, NIER No. 249 August 2019.
Type: Business Conditions Forum Summary
National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) hosted the Business Conditions Forum (BCF) on 14th August. The aim of the BCF is to have informed and analytical discussions of data and surveys to better understand the current state of the UK economy. The discussions are held under...
Type: Topical Briefing
As part of a research report on UK Public Attitudes to the Economic Impacts of EU Immigration, published by NIESR and Birkbeck, University of London, in October 2018, we reviewed the existing literature on the economic impacts of EU immigration. We have updated this with the most recent evidence...
Type: Topical Briefing
OVERVIEW
As part of a research report on UK Public Attitudes to Immigration, published by NIESR and Birkbeck, University of London, in October 2018, we reviewed the existing literature on the topic. We have updated this with the most recent evidence thanks to the support of the ESRC through its...
Type: NIESR Wage Tracker
Real Earnings Growth Returns to Pre-Referendum Rates but is Unlikely to Pick Up Any Further in the Near Term
Main Points
According to new ONS statistics published this morning, UK average weekly earnings (AWE) expanded by 3.9 per cent excluding bonuses (3.7 per cent including bonuses) in the...
Type: NIESR GDP Tracker
Economic growth grinds to a halt
Please find the full commentary in the attachment
Type: NiGEM Observations
Abstract:
In this NiGEM Observation, we evaluate the macroeconomic effects of expansionary fiscal policy measures on the UK economy. We consider two fiscal packages, one based on Labour Party policy and one based on some of the policies put forward during the 2019 Conservative Party leadership...
Type: Report
The Youth Jobs Gap research series uses previously unseen Longitudinal Education Outcomes data to present new insights into disadvantaged young people’s transition from compulsory education into employment. The first three national reports looked at NEET rates, higher education, and...
Type: National Institute Economic Review
The prospect of leaving the European Union has acted to hamper much economic activity and the formulation of forward-looking plans over the past three years. The Institute has outlined the consequences arising from the various EU Exit scenarios that the UK may face, each of which will leave output...
Type: National Institute Economic Review
Recent trends in global industrial production and trade show activity stalling since late last year. The pace of service sector activity has remained steadier.
Tariff increases and trade disputes have contributed to the weakness in production and trade and have added uncertainty to the global...
Type: National Institute Economic Review
Innovation in economic measurement is fundamental to a better understanding of how our changing economy works and for whom. The ESCoE Conference on Economic Measurement is a new forum to promote research on economic measurement and increase dialogue between academic economists, national...
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