Publications
Type: NiGEM Observations
Summary
• The coronavirus pandemic has triggered a global economic shock. We provide an exploratory analysis of its impact on the global economy
• The channels we focus on are a reduction in labour, a reduction in expenditure and investment, an increase in uncertainty, and a temporary shutdown...
Type: NIESR Occasional Paper
The new Governor of the Bank of England, Andrew Bailey, faces a formidable challenge. From his very first day in office on 16 March 2020 he has been confronted with an imbalance between the demands on his institution to support the economy and the capacity of the Bank to meet that challenge.
The...
Type: NIESR CPI Tracker
CPI Inflation Stabilises
The consumer price index inflation rate decreased by 0.1 percentage points to 1.7 per cent in the year to February 2020, as per data released by the ONS. Our new analysis of 128,677 locally collected goods and services indicates that inflation in the housing and household...
Type: NIESR Wage Tracker
Wage Growth Likely to be Hit by the Covid-19 Outbreak
Figure 1 – Average weekly earnings growth (per cent per annum)
Main points
According to new ONS statistics published this morning, UK average weekly earnings expanded by 3.1 per cent excluding bonuses in the three months to January 2020...
Type: NIESR Discussion Paper
The year 2019 marked the 20th anniversary of the establishment of the Euro. It was also the last full year before the UK formally left the European Union. This paper examines the relationship between the UK and the euro area. We look at the economic distance between core and periphery groups of...
Type: NIESR GDP Tracker
UK remains on course for 2.0 per cent growth in 2020 Q1, but outbreak of the Coronavirus poses a major threat to the economic outlook
Main points
The UK economy remains on course to grow by 0.2% in first quarter of 2020 (figure1.)
According to new ONS statistics published this morning, the UK...
Type: Other
On Wednesday 11th March 2020, Chancellor Rishi Sunak delivered his first Budget only 27 days after being appointed. The Chancellor delivered this first, post-Brexit Budget for this Government, which has a strong mandate after its comprehensive election victory in December that should be strong...
Type: Other
On Wednesday 11th March, Chancellor Rishi Sunak will deliver his first Budget only 27 days after being appointed. The Chancellor will deliver his Budget as part of a Government with a strong mandate after its comprehensive election victory in December. We can therefore expect him to use this...
Type: Report
This report addresses the important question of how wage growth in the United Kingdom is determined in the long run and whether wage decisions in the public sector can have spillover effects into the private sector. To analyse these questions, we construct a unique new dataset that is made up of...
Type: Report
The URLEY (Using Research Tools to Improve Language in the Early Years) programme trains early years teachers to improve children’s language and social-behavioural outcomes in Nursery and Reception Year (ages 3 to 5). Teachers take part in 5 day-long professional development workshops in which they...
Type: NIESR CPI Tracker
CPI Inflation accelerated in new year as expected
The consumer price index inflation rate increased to 1.8 per cent in the year to January 2020, as per data released by the ONS. Our new analysis of 130,278 locally collected goods and services indicates that inflation in the housing and household...
Type: NIESR Wage Tracker
Slight rebound expected for earnings growth
Main points
According to new ONS statistics published this morning, UK average weekly earnings (AWE) expanded by 3.2 per cent excluding bonuses in the three months to December 2019 compared to the year before, and by 2.9 per cent if bonus payments are...
Type: NIESR GDP Tracker
UK Economy to grow again in 2020 Q1
Please find the full commentary in the attachment
Type: National Institute Economic Review
The decisive result of the general election has reduced political uncertainty, but elevated economic uncertainty is likely to persist until the details of the UK’s future trade relationship with the EU are settled.
The March Budget is expected to be focused on ‘levelling up’ income levels across...
Type: National Institute Economic Review
Global economic growth slowed again last year as increases in tariffs and uncertainty about future tariff impositions and their implications for production activity continued to have negative effects on industrial production, especially in the advanced economies, and global trade.
With a weaker...
Type: National Institute Economic Review
There is evidence that the risk of stranded assets in the oil and gas sector is underpriced in financial markets. Publicly traded Western oil and gas companies are starting to write down assets, opening up the possibility that more rationalisation of value is likely to come. To the extent that...
Type: National Institute Economic Review
Carbon pricing has been the most prominent climate change mitigation policy for the EU since the launch of its emissions trading system (ETS) in 2005. Since then, the context of international climate policy as well as of the socio-political and economical context of decarbonisation has changed...
Type: National Institute Economic Review
China and the United States are the two largest emitters of greenhouse gases, making them pivotal players in global climate negotiations. Within the coming decade, however, India is set to become the most important counterpart to the United States, as it overtakes China as the country with the most...
Type: National Institute Economic Review
The articles in this issue of the Review highlight some of the economic issues involved in acting to cut greenhouse gas emissions to a level consistent with the ambition to limit global temperature increases. Together they help explain why progress in tackling this “urgent problem”is likely to be...
Type: National Institute Economic Review
This study uses an econometric approach to investigate the role of IPR protection on renewable energy adoption using panel data of 102 countries at five-year intervals over the period 1990–2005. The Ginarte-Park index is used as a measure of the strength of intellectual property protection while...
Type: National Institute Economic Review
We estimate trend UK labour productivity growth using a Hodrick-Prescott filter method. We use the results to compare downturns where the economy fell below its pre-existing trend. We find that the current productivity slowdown has resulted in productivity being 19.7 per cent below the pre-2008...
Type: Economic Review Preview
This is a preview from the National Institute Economic Review, February 2020, no 251.
In the past two months some of the uncertainties around the trade war between the US and China have settled. The negotiations between the US and China have culminated in the Phase One agreement, which was signed...
Type: Annual Report
Contents
Reference and administrative information
Trustees’ report
Trustees’ responsibilities
Independent auditor's report
Consolidated statement of financial activities
Consolidated and charity balance sheet
Consolidated statement of cash flows
Notes to the financial statements
Type: NIESR Wage Tracker
Real pay growth to strengthen at start of 2020
Figure 1 - Average weekly earnings growth (per cent per annum)
Main points
According to new ONS statistics published this morning, UK average weekly earnings (AWE) expanded by 3.4 per cent excluding bonuses in the three months to November...
Type: NIESR CPI Tracker
The consumer price index inflation rate declined to 1.3 per cent in the year to December 2019, as per data released by the ONS. Our new analysis of 129,516 locally-collected goods and services indicate that inflation in the restaurants and hotels and clothing and footwear categories decreased in...
Type: NIESR GDP Tracker
UK Output Stagnated at end of 2019
Main points
The UK economy is on course to post zero growth in the fourth quarter of 2019, consistent with growth of 1.4 per cent in 2019 as a whole. On the basis of recent trends we tentatively forecast service sector-driven growth of 0.3...
Type: NIESR CPI Tracker
According to figures released this morning by the ONS, consumer price index inflation decreased to 1.5 per cent in the year to October 2019. Our new analysis of 129,752 locally-collected goods and services prices suggest that consumers benefitted from changes to the energy price cap. Furthermore...
Type: NIESR Wage Tracker
Year Ends With Softer Pay Growth
Main points
According to new ONS statistics published this morning, UK average weekly earnings (AWE) expanded by 3.5 per cent excluding bonuses in the three months to October compared to the year before (figure 1).
Total earnings growth including bonuses was 3.2...
Type: NIESR GDP Tracker
Growth Petering Out at End of Year
Please find the full commentary in the attachment
Type: General Election Briefing
Foreward
In this election campaign we are seeing the consequences of the Brexit impasse across a raft of policy areas. With infrastructure and investment expenditures continuing to be deferred, we are seeing a rash of spending promises to placate a disillusioned electorate. But what we continue...
Type: General Election Briefing
Most economic analyses of parties’ tax and spending promises treat the government’s budget like that of a household, ignoring the impact of proposed policies on the economy. This briefing aims to fill this gap by providing a macroeconomic assessment of announced fiscal policies. It focuses on:
The...
Type: General Election Briefing
Immigration was one of the main issues around the UK’s decision to leave the EU. The outcome of the General Election is likely to determine the design of a future immigration system, with party proposals ranging from the introduction of a post-Brexit “Australian-style” points system, to continuing...
Type: General Election Briefing
International trade plays a crucial role in fostering economic growth across a wide range of industries at the national and the regional level. The prospects for UK’s international trade are closely tied to the future relationship between the UK and the EU. Voters are being offered a wide spectrum...
Type: General Election Briefing
This briefing focuses on:
The state of the UK economy and UK-wide living standards going into the election.
The causes of slow growth and the need for supply-side reforms.
Visit our General Election 2019 site
Type: General Election Briefing
Economic performance varies widely across towns, cities and rural areas in the UK. Spatial disparities are found in all industrialised countries, although on some measures the UK is significantly more unequal than comparable countries. These disparities are matter for people because local social...
Type: General Election Briefing
The main political parties have meticulously set out costings of their spending plans for the next Parliament and how they would finance them if elected. This briefing focuses on:
The fiscal rules adopted by the political parties.
The underlying fiscal position and how it has changed since the...
Type: General Election Briefing
The election campaign has focussed on the tax and spending plans of the main political parties, this brief outlines:
The case for fiscal rules as part of the country’s strategy of macroeconomic management.
The need for comprehensive reform of the process of setting fiscal policy.
This brief...
Type: General Election Briefing
Overview
Labour, Conservatives and Lib Dems have all pledged to increase the education budget. But we ask, from early years via schools to further and higher education: What can be done to make the education system more effective and fairer? How can outcomes across different levels of education be...
Type: General Election Briefing
Labour and the Conservatives both plan historically high increases to the UK minimum wage, aiming to use the minimum wage as an important tool in raising living standards. This briefing focuses on:
The current minimum wage structure and how the rates are determined;
The future path of the National...
Type: General Election Briefing
Brexit dominates political debate and divides opinion. The main political parties have different positions on this issue, ranging from cancelling Brexit (Liberal Democrats) to seeking a ‘clean-break’ (Brexit Party). The Prime Minster wants to ‘get Brexit done’ on the terms of the deal negotiated...
Type: Business Conditions Forum Summary
International Trade
The meeting discussed latest trends in international trade. The discussions were centred around the
following five questions:
1. How much has global trade slowed?
2. Is the slowdown structural?
3. What are the effects from China-US tariffs on UK?
4. What risks arise from the...
Type: NIESR CPI Tracker
Change to Energy Price Caps Impacts Inflation
According to figures released this morning by the ONS, consumer price index inflation decreased to 1.5 per cent in the year to October 2019. Our new analysis of 129,752 locally-collected goods and services prices suggest that consumers benefitted from...
Type: NIESR Wage Tracker
Uncertainty Taking Toll on Labour Market
Main points
According to new ONS statistics published this morning, UK average weekly earnings (AWE) expanded by 3.6 per cent (excluding and including bonuses) in the three months to September compared to the year before (figure 1).
With CPI inflation at 1....
Type: NIESR GDP Tracker
Output Stagnating After Mid-Year Rebound
Please find the full commentary in the attachment
Type: Topical Briefing
When advising government, the LPC’s main objective in setting the Youth Rates is:
"to ensure that the NMW’s structure and the level of the youth rates enables young people to make a successful transition from education to employment, and to access roles which provide them with the work...
Type: Report
Right from their inception the minimum wage rates have included age-related bands intended to give young people protection in the labour market. Initially there were only two age bands, 18-21 and 22+. With the introduction of the National Living Wage in 2016 there are now four age bands and an...
Type: National Institute Economic Review
Forecast SummariesThe UK Economy: Forecast Summary
The UK EconomyProspects for the UK Economy Arno Hantzsche and Garry Young
Forecast SummariesThe World Economy: Forecast Summary
The UK EconomyThe Economic Impact of Prime Minister Johnson's New Brexit Deal Arno Hantzsche and Garry Young
The World...
Type: National Institute Economic Review
We not only live in interesting times but also dangerous ones. The weaknesses of the post-war consensus on macroeconomic control was laid bare by Dow’s (1964) magisterial analysis and the subsequent implosion of demand management in the 1970s (see Blackaby, 1978; and Britton, 1991). It is becoming...
Type: National Institute Economic Review
Regardless of the particular form that Brexit ultimately takes, the UK faces an unprecedented set of political, economic, and social challenges. While the causes are many and complex, they amount to a crisis of confidence and popular trust that has overturned the normal logic of political practice...
Type: National Institute Economic Review
The UK economy faces more than usually uncertain times. Outside the European Union, and in an increasingly challenging global environment characterised by ageing populations, climate change, populism, protectionism, and more, the country needs to chart a new course. This may well require...
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