Publications
Type: Economic Review Preview
This is a preview from the National Institute Economic Review, May 2019, no 248.
Inversions of the yield curve have a good track record of predicting recessions (see Estrella and Mishkin, 1998; Chinn and Kucko, 2015). The 10-year to 3-month spread between US Treasury yields became briefly negative...
Type: Wage Tracker
Pay growth stabilises amidst a tight labour market and Brexit uncertainty
Main points
According to new ONS statistics published this morning, UK average weekly earnings (AWE) expanded by 3.5 per cent including bonuses (3.4 per cent excluding bonuses) in the three months to February...
Type: Economic Review Preview
This is a preview from the National Institute Economic Review, May 2019, no 248. Sustained low investment constitutes a major area of concern for the UK economy, with consequences for living standards in the longer term. In this box, prepared by NIESR Senior Economist Cyrille Lenoel, we review the...
Type: GDP Tracker
The UK economy is on course to grow by 0.4% in the first quarter of 2019.
Main points
The UK economy is on course to grow by 0.4% in the first quarter of 2019 and, if current trends continue, by 0.3% in the second quarter (figure 1).
According to new ONS statistics published this morning...
Type: NIESR Discussion Paper
We use the earliest cohort of English secondary school leavers with newly available Longitudinal Education Outcomes data (622,000 pupils in 2002/03) to compare earnings of people with higher vocational/technical qualifications to those of degree holders. The unusually rich data allow us to estimate...
Type: Report
Executive Summary
Free movement and the extension of EU membership to Eastern and Central European countries have led to a substantial increase in migration to the UK. One result is an increase in the number of pupils who are either migrants themselves or born to recent migrants. In June 2016 the...
Type: Wage Tracker
Pay growth appears to be stabilising at around 3½ per cent per annum
Main points
According to new ONS statistics published this morning, UK average weekly earnings (AWE) expanded by 3.4 per cent (including and excluding bonuses) in the three months to January compared to the year before...
Type: GDP Tracker
The UK economic growth continues at slow pace and is expected to grow by 0.2% in the first quarter of 2019, the same pace as in the fourth quarter of last year.
Main points
The UK economy is on course to grow by 0.2% in the first quarter of 2019, the same pace as in the fourth quarter of...
Type: Policy Paper
Political deadlock and constitutional crisis does not necessarily spell economic doom. The UK economy is at full employment and in desperate need of investment to enhance productive capacity. But waiting for the outcome of this tortuous EU Exit process has produced an economic delay. Output is...
Type: NIESR Discussion Paper
The Global Financial Crisis (GFC) highlighted the importance of a number of unresolved empirical issues in the field of financial stability. First, there is the sign of the relationship between bank competition and financial stability. Second, there is the relation of capital adequacy of banks to...
Type: NIESR Discussion Paper
Following experience in the global financial crisis (GFC), when banks with low leverage ratios were often in severe difficulty, despite high-risk-adjusted capital measures, a leverage ratio was introduced in Basel III to complement the risk-adjusted capital ratio (RAR). Empirical testing of the...
Type: NIESR Discussion Paper
In 2015 the UK government announced the introduction of a new ‘National Living Wage’ (NLW) that would apply to those aged 25 and above from April 2016. At a rate of £7.20, this represented a significant increase of 7.5% over the existing National Minimum Wage (NMW) rate. Previous research has...
Type: Wage Tracker
Nominal pay growing at fastest rate for a decade, but expected to stabilise in short term
Main points
According to new ONS statistics published this morning, UK average weekly earnings (AWE) expanded by 3.4 per cent (including and excluding bonuses) in the three months to December compared...
Type: GDP Tracker
Latest economic data confirms that the UK economy lost momentum in the final quarter of 2018, with quarterly growth of 0.2%. GDP growth is set remain weak in the first quarter of this year.
Main points
Latest economic data confirms that the UK economy lost momentum in the final quarter of...
Type: National Institute Economic Review
The UK’s recent productivity performance has been strikingly weak. Output per hour worked, which increased by around 2.1 per cent per year in the decade leading up to the economic downturn, increased by just 0.2 per cent per year in the ten years following the global financial crisis. This paper...
Type: National Institute Economic Review
This paper builds upon Bartelsman, Lopez-Garcia, and Presidente (2018) and provides empirical evidence on the cyclical features of labour reallocation in a sample of European Union (EU) countries over the Great Recession and the slow recovery. The analysis makes use of cross-country micro-...
Type: National Institute Economic Review
This paper uses plant-level estimates of total factor productivity covering 40 years to examine what role, if any, productivity has played in the decline of output share and employment in British manufacturing. The results show that TFP growth in British manufacturing was negative between 1973 and...
Type: National Institute Economic Review
I summarise new facts on hours worked differences across countries and their driving forces. The facts are derived from a comprehensive analysis of micro data sets. First, hours worked are substantially higher in poor than in rich countries. Second, lower hours worked in Europe than in the US can...
Type: National Institute Economic Review
Recent data suggests that the global growth cycle has probably peaked. We forecast world GDP growth of around 3.5 per cent a year over the next two years.
On that basis, the second decade of the 21st century will have seen sustained global GDP growth.
Tariff increases and trade disputes seem likely...
Type: National Institute Economic Review
On average, UK productivity performance in the decades leading up to the financial crisis was quite disappointing. Joining the EU was not to blame. Indeed, EU membership, which was an integral part of the Thatcher reform programme, had a significant positive impact. Over the long run, UK supply-...
Type: National Institute Economic Review
Unanimity on the question of UK exit from the EU is not within reach, but this does not mean that the House of Commons or the population at large can not find a way out of the current Brexit impasse that is fair and legitimate. We discuss different voting procedures which satisfy some important...
Type: National Institute Economic Review
There continues to be considerable discussion in all of polite society about the causes of the productivity puzzle. Commissions and Inquiries have been set up and answers sought with the most recent, the Industrial Strategy Council, having its inaugural meeting in November 2018. The National...
Type: National Institute Economic Review
The UK’s future relationship with the European Union (EU) remains undecided even though the Article 50 exit date is less than two months away. Brexit uncertainty has intensified since our last forecast and is now evident in various indicators.
Our main forecast is conditional on a ‘soft’ Brexit...
Type: Report
In 2015 the UK government announced the introduction of a new `National Living Wage' (NLW) that would apply to those aged 25 and above from April 2016. At a rate of £7.20, this represented a significant increase of 7.5% over the existing National Minimum Wage (NMW) rate. Previous research has...
Type: Economic Review Preview
This is a preview from the National Institute Economic Review, February 2019, no 247.
With the long expansion phase since the recession bringing the rise in indebtedness into focus, it is natural to consider how real house prices in the advanced economies have fared in the expansion. In this Box...
Type: Report
This Euroframe Report presents an assessment of the economic outlook for 2019 and 2020 focused on the euro area based on a synopsis of the forecasts of Euroframe institutes, including NIESR. Perspectives for UK and CEEs countries are described in Boxes A and B respectively. In the Focus section, we...
Type: Economic Review Preview
This is a preview from the National Institute Economic Review, February 2019, no 247.
The UK labour market has become more interconnected. What are the macroeconomic implications of this trend?
In order to understand trends in aggregate labour market outcomes, such as wage and productivity...
Type: NIESR Discussion Paper
This study analyses students’ choices when leaving Key Stage 4 (KS4) to Key Stage 5 (KS5) for pupils progressing to either academic A-Level or vocational “Non-A-Level” Level 3 programmes. Using school-level data (published by the Department for Education) and linked administrative data, which...
Type: NIESR Discussion Paper
The more advanced economies in Asia are experiencing slower growth rates. Structural reforms are the most important policies for keeping growth rates up, but this paper takes the growth slowdown as given and focuses on implications for monetary policy. The key policy implication is the importance...
Type: NIESR Discussion Paper
We demonstrate that the Fiscal Theory of the Price Level (FTPL) cannot be used to determine the price level uniquely in the overlapping generations (OLG) model. We provide two examples of OLG models, one with three 3-period lives and one with 62-period lives. Both examples are calibrated to an...
Type: Policy Paper
This short paper explores the evolution of regional economic disparities in the UK from the 1960s until now. While there have always been economic disparities, more than two thirds of places now are less productive than the national average. Regional differences are discussed in terms of incomes...
Type: GDP Tracker
UK GDP growth is set to slow to a quarterly rate of 0.3% in 2018Q4 from 0.6% in the previous quarter but a modest recovery is expected in 2019Q1
Main points
UK economic growth looks set to slow to a quarterly rate of 0.3% in the fourth quarter of 2018 from 0.6% in the third quarter. ...
Type: Report
The Mathematical Reasoning programme aims to improve mathematical attainment by developing pupils’ understanding of the logical principles underlying mathematics. The Literacy and Morphemes programme aims to improve pupils’ spelling and reading comprehension. Both programmes are delivered to year 2...
Type: GDP Tracker
Our monthly GDP Tracker suggests that UK economic growth is set to slow to a quarterly rate of 0.4% in the fourth quarter of 2018 from 0.6% in the third quarter
Main points
UK economic growth looks set to slow to a quarterly rate of 0.4% in the fourth quarter of 2018 from 0.6% in the third...
Type: Policy Paper
You can also view the evidence as submitted to the Treasury Committee on the Treasury Committee website
The UK is set to leave the European Union at the end of March 2019. The process of leaving was triggered by the result of the Advisory Referendum held on 23 June 2016, which led to invocation of...
Type: Journal article/book/chapter
This paper investigates the effect of educational mismatch of R&D workers on firm's returns to innovation. R&D labour mismatch emerges when R&D workers have competencies different from those required by their occupation providing a contribution to innovation lower than in the case of...
Type: Other
Garry Young's note on the methodology used in the report "The Economic Effects of the Prime Minister's Brexit Deal"
Type: Report
Read Garry Young's note on the methodology behind this report here.
This report estimates the economic effects of the government’s proposed Brexit deal that was first published on 14 November 2018, and subsequently expanded.
The impact of any Brexit deal can be broken down into two key components...
Type: GDP Tracker
Our monthly GDP Tracker suggests that the economy will expand by 0.4 per cent in the three months to October and by 0.4 per cent in the final quarter of this year.
Main points
In our view, UK economic growth peaked in the third quarter of this year and will settle at a rate that is close...
Type: Report
The growth of internationally comparative student assessment measures such as the Programme for International Student Assessment (PISA), and the annual publication of the OECDs annual Education at a Glance, provides a global perspective of how children perform on comparable educational tests across...
Type: NiGEM Observations
Abstract:
The trade dispute between the US and China has not abated. On 24th of September, the US imposed a 10 per cent tariff on an additional $200bn imports from China (which, based on 2017 trade data, is around 40 per cent of total US imports of goods and services from China and about 8 per cent...
Type: Report
Prepared for the Cavendish Coalition for the project:
“Incentivising the domestic workforce and securing clear, reasonable routes for immigration both during and after the UK’s exit from the EU”
Executive summary
The UK’s H&SC workforce is under considerable strain to provide services for an...
Type: National Institute Economic Review
The Institute is a world leader in macroeconomic modelling and forecasting. It has produced quarterly economic forecasts for around sixty years, supported by macroeconomic models. The aim of the original builders of macroeconomic models was to transform understanding of how economies worked and use...
Type: National Institute Economic Review
The Institute has long examined overseas developments in order to understand better domestic macroeconomic dynamics.The organising principle for much of the postwar period was simply the impact on net trade with an implicit view on whether the exchange rate was at an appropriate level and, as such...
Type: National Institute Economic Review
This paper charts the evolution of mainly empirical research at the NIESR over the1970s and 80s. As was all too evident there were very large discrete technical improvements in data handling and manipulation over this period. Less well appreciated were the effects on the economy of major supply-...
Type: National Institute Economic Review
UK labour productivity is significantly lower than that of many other similarly advanced economies and has been so for decades, with negative implications for UK living standards. To make matters worse, during the last ten years labour productivity growth has stalled in most industrialised...
Type: National Institute Economic Review
The National Institute of Economic and Social Research, the UK’s oldest independent economic research institute, was founded exactly eighty years ago. The Institute’s original mission was “to carry out research into the economic and social forces that affect people’s lives and to improve the...
Type: National Institute Economic Review
The global economy is set to continue to grow at a pace of slightly below 4 per cent a year in the near term.
Oil prices have risen further and with some advanced economies appearing to be operating at close to full capacity, there is a risk that inflation will increase. Our expectation is that any...
Type: National Institute Economic Review
The future relationship between the UK and the EU remains unclear. Despite that uncertainty the economy has gained momentum over the last few months, fiscal outturns have been better and financial markets appear to be sanguine about the uncertainty. It is against this backdrop that the Chancellor...
Type: National Institute Economic Review
Bell, D.N.F. and Blanchflower, D.G. (2018), ‘The Lack of Wage Growth and the Falling NAIRU’, National Institute Economic Review, August, pp. R40-R55.Doi: 10.1177/002795011824500114.
From page R48, 2nd column, final paragraph, to page R50, 1st column following the italic text the following...
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