Publications
Publication date: 12 Aug 2020
| Publication type: NIESR GDP Tracker
| Theme: Macroeconomics
GDP picking up after recession confirmed
Main points
Latest ONS estimates published this morning show that the UK economy contracted by 20.4 per cent in the second quarter of 2020, thereby confirming the UK’s first recession since the global financial crisis. This outturn is largely in line with...
Publication date: 11 Aug 2020
| Publication type: NIESR Wage Tracker
| Theme: Macroeconomics
Pay Growth Turns Negative
Main points
According to new ONS statistics published this morning, average weekly earnings, excluding bonuses, grew at an annual rate of -0.2 per cent in the three months to June, a fall of 0.8 per cent in real terms. When bonuses are included, total pay fell at an...
Publication date: 29 Jul 2020
| Publication type: National Institute Economic Review
| JEL Classification: E24; I32; C553; J82; L00; R11
| Journal: National Institute Economic Review
Issue 253
| Publisher: Cambridge University Press
We use microsimulation combined with a model of the COVID-19 impacts on individuals and households to obtain projections of households in destitution in the United Kingdom. The projections are estimated at two levels: aggregate quarterly for the UK, for all quarters of 2020; and annual for 2020...
Publication date: 29 Jul 2020
| Publication type: National Institute Economic Review
| JEL Classification: I18; D61; E65
| Journal: National Institute Economic Review
Issue 253
| Publisher: Cambridge University Press
This paper analyses the costs and benefits of lockdown policies in the face of COVID-19. What matters for people is the quality and length of lives and one should measure costs and benefits in terms of those things. That raises difficulties in measurement, particularly in valuing potential lives...
Publication date: 29 Jul 2020
| Publication type: National Institute Economic Review
| JEL Classification: C11, C53, O4, R1
| Journal: National Institute Economic Review
Issue 253
| Publisher: Oxford University Press, Oxford
There is renewed interest in levelling up the regions of the UK. The combination of social and political discontent, and the sluggishness of key UK macroeconomic indicators like productivity growth, has led to increased interest in understanding the regional economies of the UK. In turn, this has...
Publication date: 29 Jul 2020
| Publication type: National Institute Economic Review
| JEL Classification: C23, C33, D24, O47, R12
| Journal: National Institute Economic Review
Issue 253
| Publisher: Cambridge University Press
This paper reports on the availability of regional capital stock data, in the form of new/updated regional (NUTS2 level) capital stock estimates, building on an approach (Perpetual Inventory Method) which had been previously developed for the European Commission. The particular focus here is on the...
Publication date: 29 Jul 2020
| Publication type: National Institute Economic Review
| JEL Classification: R11, R12, O47, O50
| Journal: National Institute Economic Review
Issue 253
| Publisher: Cambridge University Press
This paper explores the nature and scale of inter-regional and inter-urban inequalities in the UK in the context of international comparisons and our aim is to identify the extent to which such inequalities are associated with strong national economic performance. In order to do this, we first...
Publication date: 29 Jul 2020
| Publication type: National Institute Economic Review
| JEL Classification: C22, E32
| Journal: National Institute Economic Review
Issue 253
| Publisher: Cambridge University Press
We investigate economic resilience of UK regions before, during and after the 2007/8 global financial crisis. We date business cycle turning points in real output, employment and productivity to assess the resilience dimensions of resistance, recovery and renewal and rank the economic resilience of...
Publication date: 29 Jul 2020
| Publication type: National Institute Economic Review
| Journal: National Institute Economic Review
Issue 253
| Publisher: Cambridge University Press
Regional or spatial inequalities are a concern in most (if not all) countries and with the current ‘levellingup’ agenda they are also a priority of policymakers in the UK. Most often spatial inequalities are analysed as differences in GDP per capita or productivity at some subnational level of...
Publication date: 28 Jul 2020
| Publication type: National Institute Economic Review
| Theme: Macroeconomics
The Covid-19 pandemic and the effects of the measures taken to protect lives continue to dominate the short-term global economic outlook.
In still highly uncertain times, there are widespread falls in GDP as lockdowns pause many forms of economic activity. Some countries are now starting to...
Publication date: 28 Jul 2020
| Publication type: National Institute Economic Review
| Theme: Macroeconomics
| Journal: National Institute Economic Review
Issue 253
| Publisher: Cambridge University Press
The combination of the Covid-19 pandemic and the public health measures taken to limit its spread here and overseas are forecast to contribute to a fall in GDP of 10 per cent in 2020. The level of economic activity in the final quarter of last year is not likely to be regained much before the...
Publication date: 27 Jul 2020
| Publication type: Economic Review Preview
This is a preview from the National Institute Economic Review, August 2020, no 253.
The Covid-19 pandemic has revived protectionist measures. The most proximate trigger for this switch is a desire to prioritise national security interests and public health concerns over the long- standing...
Publication date: 23 Jul 2020
| Publication type: Economic Review Preview
This is a preview from the National Institute Economic Review, August 2020, no 253.
Business creation is an informative measure of real economic activity. During exceptional events such as the Covid-19 pandemic, it is important to develop tools that allow us to measure in real time the effect of...
Publication date: 16 Jul 2020
| Publication type: NIESR Wage Tracker
Private Sector Pay Weakening as Pay Falls
Main points
According to new ONS statistics published this morning, average weekly earnings, excluding bonuses, grew at an annual rate of 0.7 per cent in the three months to May, or around zero in real terms.
More up to data information from HMRC’s...
Publication date: 15 Jul 2020
| Publication type: NIESR CPI Tracker
Underlying Inflation Diverges at Regional Level
Consumer price inflation increased by 0.1 percentage points to 0.6 per cent in the year to June 2020, as per data released by the ONS. Our new analysis of 97,101 locally collected goods and services indicates price increases in the clothing and...
Publication date: 14 Jul 2020
| Publication type: NIESR GDP Tracker
Slow recovery from 20 per cent output contraction
Main points
The UK economy remains on course to decline by 20 to 25 per cent in the second quarter of 2020.
According to the ONS estimate published this morning, the UK economy contracted by 19.1 per cent in the three months to May, broadly in...
Publication date: 13 Jul 2020
| Publication type: NIESR Landscape Series
| Report number: 1
Executive summary
China’s remarkable growth has transformed the global pattern of world production, trade and investment, and has caused large changes in the industrial structures of North America, Europe (including the UK) and Japan. China and its neighbours have become the ‘workshop of the world...
Publication date: 8 Jul 2020
| Publication type: Other
Executive Summary
The Chancellor should extend the government’s jobs furlough scheme, ideally until GDP is back to its pre-Covid 19 level. The scheme has been highly successful in protecting over 9 million jobs over this period and continues to support around 6 million furloughed workers.
...
Publication date: 17 Jun 2020
| Publication type: NIESR CPI Tracker
Underlying Inflation Picks Up as CPI Inflation Falls
Consumer price inflation decreased by 0.3 percentage points to 0.5 per cent in the year to May 2020, as per data released by the ONS. Our new analysis of 89,142 locally collected goods and services indicates price declines in the transport,...
Publication date: 16 Jun 2020
| Publication type: NIESR Wage Tracker
| Theme: Macroeconomics
Sharp Drop in Pay Growth as a Result of Covid-19
Main points
The first signs of the COVID-19 impact on the labour market are fewer vacancies, more universal credit claims and lower pay growth.
According to new ONS statistics published this morning, UK average weekly earnings expanded by 1.7 per...
Publication date: 15 Jun 2020
| Publication type: Other
Economic impact of the coronavirus: Gaps in support
NIESR welcome the report from the House of Commons Treasury Committee and particularly the recognition given to the plight of new starters. The evidence presented in the report reflects our own assessment of the situation, published in a recent...
Publication date: 12 Jun 2020
| Publication type: NIESR GDP Tracker
UK Set to Lose a Quarter of Output in Q2
Main points
The UK economy looks set to decline by 20 to 25 per cent in the second quarter of 2020, a significantly steeper decline than the first quarter, reflecting the full impact of lockdown measures.
According to the ONS estimate published this...
Publication date: 7 Jun 2020
| Publication type: Journal article/book/chapter
| Journal: The Economic Journal
No. Forthcoming
Publication date: 29 May 2020
| Publication type: Report
| Theme: Education & Labour, Employment & Social policy
The Early Years Toolbox (EYT) is a set of iPad-based assessment tools suitable for use with young children by early years staff. It includes eight brief, engaging, and game-like assessment apps that aim to capture abilities that research has shown to be the most predictive of later academic, social...
Publication date: 26 May 2020
| Publication type: Policy Paper
Abstract
After a period of deleveraging following the financial crisis a decade ago, the past five years have seen private sector debt rising again in both advanced and emerging economies. Public sector indebtedness, too, is generally higher than five years ago. The increase in debt was, before...
Publication date: 22 May 2020
| Publication type: Policy Paper
Abstract
The UK University system faces its biggest challenge in 40 years as a direct result of the Covid-19 pandemic. What is the scale of the uncertainty facing universities and to what extent have the problems been exacerbated by the over-reliance on overseas student fee income to facilitate a...
Publication date: 20 May 2020
| Publication type: NIESR CPI Tracker
Underlying Inflation Reflects Inflationary Pressure
Consumer price inflation decreased by 0.7 percentage points to 0.8 per cent in the year to April 2020, as per data released by the ONS. Our new analysis of 84,990 locally collected goods and services indicates consumers benefitted from lower...
Publication date: 19 May 2020
| Publication type: NIESR Wage Tracker
First Signs of Severe Labour Market Impact of Covid-19
Main Points
Official labour market statistics are mainly lagging indicators and are only just beginning to show the impact of Covid-19 which started to affect the UK economy from around the middle of March.
According to new ONS statistics...
Publication date: 13 May 2020
| Publication type: NIESR GDP Tracker
Economy Contracting at Rapid Pace
Main Points
The ONS preliminary estimates suggest that growth declined by 2.0 per cent in the first quarter of 2020, broadly consistent with what we suggested it could be last month (figure1.)
The substantive contraction in growth reflects negative...
Publication date: 12 May 2020
| Publication type: Policy Paper
| JEL Classification: E52, E58
The Federal Reserve and the Bank of England have been pursuing yield curve control in their respective government securities markets since market liquidity collapsed in the middle of March. The paper discusses the issues that arose during and after previous episodes of yield curve control,...
Publication date: 4 May 2020
| Publication type: NIESR Discussion Paper
| JEL Classification: E44, E58, G17, G28
| Discussion paper category: Macroeconomics
| NIESR discussion paper number: 514
Despite the importance of profitability to banks’ growth and stability, there have, to our knowledge, been no studies which assess the effect of macroprudential regulation on banks’ profitability, a key aspect of the transmission of macroprudential measures. We seek to fill this lacuna with...
Publication date: 4 May 2020
| Publication type: Other
| Theme: Macroeconomics
Ahead of the Bank of England’s MPC meeting and quarterly monetary policy report on Thursday, here below a summary of key points outlined in our latest analysis for the UK and global economy, available in full here.
GDP is estimated to be reduced by about 30 per cent when the lockdown is in...
Publication date: 30 Apr 2020
| Publication type: National Institute Economic Review
| Theme: Macroeconomics
| JEL Classification: F13, F14, F23, L23
| Journal: National Institute Economic Review
Issue 252
| Publisher: Cambridge University Press
We analyse the trade routes between the UK and EU countries. Our results show that the relative importance of the UK as a trading partner in the EU has slightly decreased. We further decompose the total value added into components that quantify the value added that is generated through direct trade...
Publication date: 30 Apr 2020
| Publication type: National Institute Economic Review
| Theme: Macroeconomics
| JEL Classification: F14, L16, L60
| Journal: National Institute Economic Review
Issue 252
| Publisher: Cambridge University Press
The EU´s falling share in global manufacturing has fuelled concerns about an overall loss of EU competitiveness, in particular vis-à-vis China. We analyse the empirical evidence underlying these concerns by applying a newly developed decomposition technique to global input-output data spanning the...
Publication date: 30 Apr 2020
| Publication type: National Institute Economic Review
| Theme: Macroeconomics
| JEL Classification: F14, F15, N14
| Journal: National Institute Economic Review
Issue 252
| Publisher: Cambridge University Press
This article first introduces the concept, the rationale, the causes and the genesis of global value chains from a worldwide perspective in the form of a brief overview. In the second empirical section, a closer look is taken at the intermediate trade integration in the EU. In particular, the...
Publication date: 29 Apr 2020
| Publication type: National Institute Economic Review
| Theme: Macroeconomics
| JEL Classification: F6, F14, F15, F17; F42
| Journal: National Institute Economic Review
Issue 252
| Publisher: Cambridge University Press
With international trade increasingly undertaken within vertically fragmented supply chains, this paper considers the impact of changes in trade costs on domestic output. In the context of the UK’s exit from the EU we show that the negative impact on UK output will depend on changes in both...
Publication date: 29 Apr 2020
| Publication type: National Institute Economic Review
| Theme: Macroeconomics
| Journal: National Institute Economic Review
Issue 252
| Publisher: Cambridge University Press
The world is undergoing an unprecedented shock as a result of the Covid-19 pandemic and the resulting lockdowns in nearly all economies. As major world economies are being put on hold, millions of jobs and incomes are being lost, which has created an imperative for economic policy actions....
Publication date: 28 Apr 2020
| Publication type: National Institute Economic Review
| Theme: Macroeconomics
| Journal: National Institute Economic Review
Issue 252
| Publisher: Cambridge University Press
The effects of the coronavirus pandemic and the control measures taken to combat its spread have changed the short-term global economic outlook in an unprecedented manner from that forecast just three months ago.
In these highly uncertain times, we now expect widespread falls in GDP, particularly...
Publication date: 28 Apr 2020
| Publication type: National Institute Economic Review
| Theme: Macroeconomics
| Journal: National Institute Economic Review
Issue 252
| Publisher: Cambridge University Press
Measures to limit the spread of Covid-19 are causing a severe contraction in economic activity of uncertain magnitude. In our main-case scenario, GDP falls by 7 per cent in 2020 and public sector borrowing rises above £200 billion in 2020–21, over £150 billion more than in the OBR's forecast at...
Publication date: 27 Apr 2020
| Publication type: National Institute Economic Review
| Journal: National Institute Economic Review
Issue 252
| Publisher: Cambridge University Press
The Commentary in this Review has touched on the mix of monetary and fiscal policies regularly since the Brexit referendum. The timeless issues relating to the framework for monetary and fiscal policy and their appropriate degree of co-ordination have been exposed by the Covid-19 crisis. We have...
Publication date: 24 Apr 2020
| Publication type: Economic Review Preview
This is a preview from the National Institute Economic Review, May 2020, no 252.
The largest quarterly fall in output in modern times in the UK (so far) was in the second quarter of 1921 when GDP at constant market prices fell by 12.3 per cent. This was directly followed by the largest quarterly...
Publication date: 23 Apr 2020
| Publication type: National Institute Economic Review
| JEL Classification: J31, J60, J61
| Journal: National Institute Economic Review
Issue 252
| Publisher: Cambridge University Press
We examine labour market performance in the US and the UK prior to the onset of the Covid-19 crash. We then track the changes that have occurred in the months and days from the beginning of March 2020 using what we call the Economics of Walking About (EWA) that shows a collapse twenty times faster...
Publication date: 23 Apr 2020
| Publication type: Policy Paper
Abstract
Pandemic is not the time to “do something”: more than ever, it is the time to “do something coherent.” Aid for the poorest countries conditioned on debt service, just announced by the IMF and G-20, utterly fails that imperative. Instead, grants equivalent to the full IMF estimate of the...
Publication date: 22 Apr 2020
| Publication type: NIESR CPI Tracker
CPI Reflects Lower Fuel Prices
The consumer price index inflation rate decreased by 0.2 percentage points to 1.5 per cent in the year to March 2020, as per data released by the ONS. Our new analysis of 120,395 locally collected goods and services indicates that consumers benefitted from lower...
Publication date: 22 Apr 2020
| Publication type: Policy Paper
Abstract
The big changes in consumption patterns during the Lockdown need not of themselves have a big effect on measured inflation. Using a guesstimate of lockdown weights for different types of consumption and applying them retrospectively to the 2019 inflation data as an experiment led to a...
Publication date: 21 Apr 2020
| Publication type: NIESR Wage Tracker
Wage Growth to Slow Further
Main points
According to new ONS statistics published this morning, UK average weekly earnings expanded by 2.9 per cent excluding bonuses in the three months to February 2020 compared to the year before, and by 2.8 per cent if bonus payments are taken into account....
Publication date: 21 Apr 2020
| Publication type: Business Conditions Forum Summary
The National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) hosted the Business Conditions Forum (BCF) on 12th February. The aim of the BCF is to have informed and analytical discussions of data and surveys to better understand the current state of the UK economy. The discussions are held...
Publication date: 17 Apr 2020
| Publication type: Economic Review Preview
This is a preview from the National Institute Economic Review, May 2020, no 252.
The Covid-19 pandemic has delivered a shock that is truly global in nature. Cases of the virus have been reported in nearly every single country and territory in the world. At least 135 countries across the globe,...
Publication date: 14 Apr 2020
| Publication type: Policy Paper
Abstract
This paper explores the costs and benefits of compensating those UK SMEs who have experienced substantial revenue loss as a result of the current closure of their business activities. It finds that the benefits very substantially exceed the costs, by a ratio of 5:1 (every £1 of government...
Publication date: 9 Apr 2020
| Publication type: Policy Paper
With economic activity severely disrupted by the coronavirus crisis, many governments have been supporting peoples’ incomes and keeping businesses alive by means of income support programmes financed by borrowing. This paper describes how the borrowing is being done in the United States and the...
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