Publications
Type: NIESR Discussion Paper
Baumeister and Kilian (2015) combine forecasts from six empirical models to predict real oil prices. In this paper, we broadly reproduce their main economic findings, employing their preferred measures of the real oil price and other real-time variables. Mindful of the importance of Brent crude oil...
Type: Report
New research by the National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR), commissioned by the Tony Blair Institute for Global Change.
Read the report here
Type: Report
Existing research shows consistently high levels of concern among people in the UK over the scale of immigration and its impact on jobs, wages and services. At the same time, that same body of research does not provide much in the way of detail about the nature of these concerns. This is partly...
Type: GDP Tracker
Our monthly GDP Tracker suggests that the economy will expand by 0.7 per cent in the third quarter of 2018 and by 0.5 per cent in the final quarter of this year.
Figure 1: UK GDP growth (3 months on previous 3 months, per cent)
Main points
Latest economic data confirms that the UK economy...
Type: Policy Paper
This policy paper reviews the report ‘Financing Investment’, commissioned by the Shadow Chancellor from GFC Economics and Clearpoint Advisors, and published on 20th June 2018. The authors say that the report ‘should not be taken to represent the views of the Labour Party or the Shadow Chancellor...
Type: GDP Tracker
UK economic growth gathers momentum
Main points
Latest economic data confirms that the UK economy has recovered from a soft patch earlier in the year and is now growing at a pace that is above potential.
According to new ONS statistics published this morning, the UK economy expanded by 0.6...
Type: GDP Tracker
UK economic growth back on track
Main points
Latest economic data confirms that the UK economy has recovered from a soft patch earlier in the year and is now growing at a pace that is at or slightly above potential.
According to new ONS statistics published this morning, the UK economy expanded...
Type: National Institute Economic Review
In this note, we argue that a considerable part of the explanation for the benign wage growth in the advanced world is the rise in underemployment. In the years after 2008 the unemployment rate understates labour market slack. Underemployment is more important than unemployment in explaining the...
Type: National Institute Economic Review
In housing affordability levels and volatility, there could hardly be a greater contrast than between the UK and Germany. Differences in history, institutions and policies are explored in this paper. Residential housing supply has been far more expansionary in Germany and mortgage credit more...
Type: National Institute Economic Review
This paper summarises the evidence from recent research relating to the British Planning system’s impact on the supply of development. Planning serves important economic and social purposes but it is essential to distinguish between restricting development relative to demand in particular places to...
Type: National Institute Economic Review
This article summarises the long-run decline in housing affordability in England and suggests this is substantially attributable to shortfalls in housing supply. Public attitudes to housing have become increasingly pro-development in recent years and the current policy framework – summarised in the...
Type: National Institute Economic Review
The paper discusses the many reasons why housing policy can appear to be both incoherent and ineffective - with too many Departments involved each with different objectives and a plethora of policies pulling in different directions. Drawing on earlier research findings the paper discusses three...
Type: National Institute Economic Review
Financial stability reports published by central banks and commentaries by international agencies such as the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and Bank for International Settlements (BIS) frequently highlight the high level of debt (private sector or public sector or both) as an important risk...
Type: National Institute Economic Review
Last year the global economy expanded at its fastest pace since 2011. We expect global growth to continue at a similar rate in 2018 and 2019.
We expect the pace of global economic expansion to slow to around 3.5 per cent a year in the medium term unless productivity growth picks up substantially....
Type: National Institute Economic Review
The UK economy is facing an unusual level of uncertainty because of Brexit. This uncertainty primarily stems from the yet to be defined relationship between the UK and the EU but also from the economy’s response to the new framework once it emerges. The UK government’s White Paper, which set out...
Type: Economic Review Preview
This is a preview from the National Institute Economic Review, August 2018, no 245.
"The consumer price index is a fundamental economic statistic for households, firms and policymakers. This number summarises the prices of hundreds of thousands of goods and services across the country. Yet the...
Type: National Institute Economic Review
The housing market is a source of much comment and tension in the UK. Many commentators and policymakers have got into the habit of describing the market as ‘broken’, indeed we take our title from the White Paper issued by the then Department for Communities and Local Government in 2017. In our...
Type: Journal article/book/chapter
This paper studies the effect of R&D tax incentives on the research activity of manufacturing firms based in France, Italy, Spain and the UK, over the period 2007–2009. Using a matching procedure, we show that, in all the examined countries but Spain, R&D tax incentives induced a...
Type: Journal article/book/chapter
performance of industrialized economies. Using a Stochastic Frontier Model (SFM) we estimate the productivity effects of R&D and ICT for a large sample of OECD industries between 1973 and 2007, identifying four channels of transmission: input accumulation, technological change, technical...
Type: Economic Review Preview
This is a preview from the National Institute Economic Review, August 2018, no 245.
This Box, prepared by NIESR Economist Marta Lopresto, addresses the heterogeneity of fiscal positions in the Euro Area, with a view to examining the effectiveness of fiscal expansions undertaken individually and...
Type: Economic Review Preview
This is a preview from the National Institute Economic Review, August 2018, no 245.
This Box, prepared by NIESR Principal Economist Iana Liadze, uses NIESR’s Global Econometric Model (NiGEM) to run stylised scenarios to investigate the impact of recent increases in tariffs on US and Chinese...
Type: Report
The project
Embedding Formative Assessment (EFA) is a whole-school professional development programme aiming to embed the use of effective formative assessment strategies. Dylan Wiliam and Siobhan Leahy, who are experts in formative assessment, designed the intervention and associated materials....
Type: Policy Paper
Abstract
Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) trade models are helpful and widely used laboratories to study the economic effects of changes in trade policy and in particular different Brexit scenarios.
Both the calibration of the structural parameters of the model (e.g. trade elasticity) and the...
Type: GDP Tracker
Our GDP Tracker indicates growth of 0.4 per cent in 2018 Q2 and 0.5 per cent in 2018 Q3
Type: Report
Background
The workplace pension reforms, introduced following the 2008 Pensions Act (and updated as part of the 2011 and 2014 Pensions Acts), require all employers to automatically enrol all eligible employees into a qualifying workplace pension scheme, although employees can choose to opt out....
Type: Report
In our accompanying report, Light at the end of the fiscal tunnel?, we highlighted the challenges the Westminster government is facing in providing good quality public services for the people of the United Kingdom at a time of spending reductions. Despite over eight years of austerity, these...
Type: GDP Estimate
Our monthly estimates of GDP suggest that output grew by 0.2 per cent in the three months ending in May 2018 following growth of 0.1 per cent in the three months ending in April 2018.
Type: Report
In January 2016 the Women and Equalities Committee published a report on Transgender Equality. In this report evidence was identified that suggested transgender people experience significant levels of inequality across a wide range of policy areas. This included inequality in the provision of...
Type: GDP Estimate
Our monthly estimates of GDP suggest that output grew by 0.1 per cent in the three months ending in April 2018 following growth of 0.1 per cent in the three months ending in March 2018.
Type: National Institute Economic Review
In his Spring Statement, the chancellor said that he saw light at the end of the fiscal tunnel. We are afraid that this will turn out to have been an illusion. While public borrowing has been reduced to sustainable levels, our analysis of the prospects for the public finances points to severe...
Type: National Institute Economic Review
This paper introduces a special issue of the Review on how the National Institute Global Econometric Model (NiGEM) is being used to navigate uncertain times. NiGEM is the leading global macroeconomic model, used by both policy-makers and the private sector across the globe for economic forecasting...
Type: National Institute Economic Review
There is a strong case for boosting public investment in many countries based on identified country-specific structural weaknesses and the relatively low levels of such investment. This paper analyses the potential macroeconomic benefits of increased public investment using simulations on NiGEM....
Type: National Institute Economic Review
For a large number of countries, we augment the specification of import demand in NiGEM by accounting for different import contents of individual expenditure components. Three examples illustrate that these changes have important implications for model outcomes. In the case of the recently enacted...
Type: National Institute Economic Review
Exchange rate fluctuations have been particularly large since mid-2014, displaying divergent developments across the period. The nominal effective exchange rate of the dollar has appreciated by 15 per cent since June 2014, masking a 25 per cent appreciation to December 2016 followed by a...
Type: National Institute Economic Review
We modify NiGEM in order to study the macroeconomic effects of imposing import tariffs in the US under different assumptions regarding the long-run price setting behaviour of exporters. Overall, the macroeconomic implications in the US resemble the impact of a cost shock or adverse supply shock as...
Type: National Institute Economic Review
We analyse the costs of Brexit. The results show that by 2030 a hard Brexit would reduce cumulative GDP growth by 18 percentage points compared to a situation where the UK continued its EU membership. The economic damage in our FTA and soft Brexit scenarios is less severe than in our hard Brexit...
Type: National Institute Economic Review
The Irish economy has recovered at an impressive pace from the economic and financial crisis that lasted from 2008–12. Nonetheless, as a small open economy with some lingering vulnerabilities from the recent crisis, the economy remains heavily exposed to potential adverse shocks. In this paper, we...
Type: National Institute Economic Review
Last year the global economy expanded at its fastest pace since 2011. We continue to expect to see slightly faster global growth this year with momentum being carried forward. We expect growth to continue to be broadly based.
With some advanced economies appearing to be operating at close to full...
Type: National Institute Economic Review
We have revised lower our GDP forecast for 2018 to just under 1.5 per cent mainly due to weak performance in the first quarter. But the slowdown is likely to be temporary.
The Commentary in this Review builds a case for higher government spending. We have, as a result, allowed for higher total...
Type: Economic Review Preview
This is a preview from the National Institute Economic Review, May 2018, no 244.
This Box, prepared by NIESR Principal Economist Iana Liadze and NIESR Senior Economist Arno Hantzsche, analyses who wins and who loses from erecting new barriers to trade and focuses in particular on the effect of...
Type: Economic Review Preview
This is a preview from the National Institute Economic Review, May 2018, no 244.
This Box, prepared by NIESR Senior Economist Cyrille Lenoel, reviews the literature on the predictive power of the yield curve, with a particular focus on the United States, and compute the current implied...
Type: Economic Review Preview
This is a preview from the National Institute Economic Review, May 2018, no 244.
This Box, prepared by NIESR Senior Economist Jason Lennard, investigates the degree to which economic growth has been synchronised across twenty OECD countries from the first age of globalisation to the present.
"...
Type: Report
In his recent Spring Statement, the chancellor said that he saw light at the end of the fiscal tunnel. We are afraid that this will turn out to have been an illusion. While public borrowing has been reduced to sustainable levels, our analysis of the prospects for the public finances points to...
Type: NIESR Discussion Paper
Football is the national sport of most of the planet. This paper examines how happy the outcomes of football matches make us. We calibrate these results relative to other activities and estimate the dynamic effects these exogenous events have on our utility over time. We find that football – on...
Type: NIESR Discussion Paper
There remains a puzzle around the world over why wage growth is so benign given the unemployment rate has returned to pre-recession levels. It is our contention that a considerable part of the explanation is the rise in underemployment which rose in the Great Recession but has not returned to pre-...
Type: GDP Estimate
Our monthly estimates of GDP suggest that output growth slowed to 0.2 per cent in the first quarter of 2018 from 0.4 per cent for the final quarter of 2017.
Type: Report
Concern about the UK’s productivity problem has become widespread. Fixing the UK’s productivity problem requires action for the lagging parts of the economy – low pay sectors such as retail and hospitality, the long tail of low-productivity firms, and the five million individuals in the UK lacking...
Type: NIESR Discussion Paper
I review the contribution and influence of Milton Friedman’s 1968 presidential address to the American Economic Association. I argue that Friedman’s influence on the practice of central banking was profound and that his argument in favour of monetary rules was responsible for thirty years of low...
Type: NIESR Discussion Paper
In this paper we incorporate a macroprudential policy model within a semi-structural global macroeconomic model, NiGEM. The existing NiGEM model is expanded for the UK, Germany and Italy¹ to include two macroprudential tools: loan-to-value ratios on mortgage lending and variable bank capital...
- 1 of 60
- next ›
