Publications
Type: Topical Briefing
Ever since EU exit has started featuring in the public debate, NIESR has contributed analyses of the long-run economic impact of different types of Brexit, including the deal proposed by the government in November 2018, a customs union deal and no deal. Since the EU referendum, NIESR has...
Type: Wage Tracker
Strong earnings data driven by July bonuses and public sector pay but further pick-up unlikely
Figure 1 – Average weekly earnings growth (per cent per annum)
Main points
According to new ONS statistics published this morning, UK average weekly earnings (AWE) expanded by 3.8 per cent...
Type: GDP Tracker
Economic growth resumes for now
Figure 1 - UK GDP growth (3 months on previous 3 months, per cent)
Please find the full commentary in the attachment
Type: Other
In this box, which we published in our latest Review, NIER No. 249 August 2019, we evaluate the macroeconomic effects of expansionary fiscal policy measures on the UK economy. We consider two fiscal packages, one based on Labour Party policy and one based on some of the policies put forward...
Type: Other
This concise summary aims to illustrate the assumptions underpinning our view on the aggregate impact of a No-Deal Brexit on the UK economy, which we published in our latest Review, NIER No. 249 August 2019.
Type: Business Conditions Forum Summary
National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) hosted the Business Conditions Forum (BCF) on 14th August. The aim of the BCF is to have informed and analytical discussions of data and surveys to better understand the current state of the UK economy. The discussions are held under...
Type: Topical Briefing
As part of a research report on UK Public Attitudes to the Economic Impacts of EU Immigration, published by NIESR and Birkbeck, University of London, in October 2018, we reviewed the existing literature on the economic impacts of EU immigration. We have updated this with the most recent evidence...
Type: Topical Briefing
OVERVIEW
As part of a research report on UK Public Attitudes to Immigration, published by NIESR and Birkbeck, University of London, in October 2018, we reviewed the existing literature on the topic. We have updated this with the most recent evidence thanks to the support of the ESRC through its...
Type: Wage Tracker
Real Earnings Growth Returns to Pre-Referendum Rates but is Unlikely to Pick Up Any Further in the Near Term
Main Points
According to new ONS statistics published this morning, UK average weekly earnings (AWE) expanded by 3.9 per cent excluding bonuses (3.7 per cent including bonuses) in the...
Type: GDP Tracker
Economic growth grinds to a halt
Please find the full commentary in the attachment
Type: NiGEM Observations
Abstract:
In this NiGEM Observation, we evaluate the macroeconomic effects of expansionary fiscal policy measures on the UK economy. We consider two fiscal packages, one based on Labour Party policy and one based on some of the policies put forward during the 2019 Conservative Party leadership...
Type: Report
The Youth Jobs Gap research series uses previously unseen Longitudinal Education Outcomes data to present new insights into disadvantaged young people’s transition from compulsory education into employment. The first three national reports looked at NEET rates, higher education, and...
Type: National Institute Economic Review
The prospect of leaving the European Union has acted to hamper much economic activity and the formulation of forward-looking plans over the past three years. The Institute has outlined the consequences arising from the various EU Exit scenarios that the UK may face, each of which will leave output...
Type: National Institute Economic Review
Recent trends in global industrial production and trade show activity stalling since late last year. The pace of service sector activity has remained steadier.
Tariff increases and trade disputes have contributed to the weakness in production and trade and have added uncertainty to the global...
Type: National Institute Economic Review
Economic growth has stalled and there is around a one-in-four chance that the economy is already in a technical recession.
The outlook beyond October, when the United Kingdom is due to leave the European Union, is very murky indeed with the possibility of a severe downturn in the event of a...
Type: National Institute Economic Review
Innovation in economic measurement is fundamental to a better understanding of how our changing economy works and for whom. The ESCoE Conference on Economic Measurement is a new forum to promote research on economic measurement and increase dialogue between academic economists, national...
Type: National Institute Economic Review
Only half of investment by firms is in physical capital, such as buildings and machinery. The other half is in intangible assets, such as branding, software and training. This has been true for the past two decades or more in the UK, but only if you step beyond the measures in the National Accounts...
Type: National Institute Economic Review
When economists talk about ‘measurement’ they tend to refer to metrics that can capture changes in quantity, quality and distribution of goods and services. In this paper we argue that the digital transformation of the economy, particularly the rise of cloud computing as a general-purpose...
Type: National Institute Economic Review
Global trade in the 21st century is characterised by complex value chains. Successful exporters usually rely on quality imports, and exported goods cross borders many times before reaching their final consumer. This poses challenges to economic measurement as well as policymaking because it becomes...
Type: National Institute Economic Review
Recent studies have shown a strong link between the complexity of economies and their economic development. There remain gaps in our understanding of the mechanisms underpinning these links, in part because they are difficult to analyse with highly aggregated, official data sources that do not...
Type: National Institute Economic Review
Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is often treated as shorthand for national economic well-being, even though it was never intended to be; it is a measure of (some) of the marketable output of the economy. This paper reviews several developments in measuring welfare beyond GDP that were recently...
Type: National Institute Economic Review
Mobile phones have been central to ICT innovation since the introduction of the smartphone and constant-quality prices are a barometer of their economic impact. Official consumer price indices (CPIs) indicate that impact differs wildly across countries: for the 2008–18 period, average annual rates...
Type: Economic Review Preview
This is a preview from the National Institute Economic Review, August 2019, no 249.
In this box, prepared by NIESR's economists Arno Hantzsche and David Nguyen, we highlight the importance of reinvestments alongside new investment projects and shows that to bolster future welfare, policy...
Type: Wage Tracker
Pay growth at 11-year high but further acceleration unlikely
Figure 1: Average Weekly Earnings (3 months average year on year growth, per cent)
Source: NIESR, ONS.
Main points
According to new ONS statistics published this morning, UK average weekly earnings (AWE) expanded by 3.6 per cent...
Type: Report
The Changing Mindsets project aimed to improve attainment outcomes at the end of primary school by teaching Year 6 pupils that their brain potential was not a fixed entity but could grow and change through effort exerted. The programme, delivered by Portsmouth University, taught pupils about the...
Type: Report
The pilot intervention ‘Embedding contextualisation in English and mathematics GCSE teaching’ trains English and maths teachers to use examples from real life and vocational contexts in their teaching to emphasise the relevance of studies to the future careers of students. The aim is to improve...
Type: GDP Tracker
UK economy narrowly avoids recession
Please find the full commentary in attachment.
Type: Report
The Spanish economy has been growing at over 3% since 2015, above the average for the EU and the euro area. Unemployment, although still 10 percentage points above the EU average, has fallen from a high of 26.1% in 2013 to 17.2% in 2017. Interest rates are at historical lows thanks to the expansive...
Type: Report
This report is part of the Youth Jobs Gap research series, which uses new Longitudinal Education Outcomes data to present new insights into disadvantaged young people’s transition from compulsory education into employment. The first three national reports have looked at NEET rates, higher education...
Type: Report
Traineeships are an education and training programme that provide young people aged 16-24 with an intensive period of work experience and work preparation training, as well as offering them support in improving their English and maths, to give them the best opportunity of entering an apprenticeship...
Type: Wage Tracker
Public sector earnings growth provides a temporary boost to whole-economy wages
Main points
According to new ONS statistics published this morning, UK average weekly earnings (AWE) expanded by 3.1 per cent including bonuses (3.4 per cent excluding bonuses) in the three months to April...
Type: Report
There is plenty of evidence to indicate that teacher quality matters for pupil attainment. But teachers do not work in a vacuum. They are employed to work in schools, usually under the direction of supervisors and a Head Teacher who, together with a governing board and officials in local and...
Type: GDP Tracker
UK economy slows as stockpiling boost fades
Please find the full commentary in attachment.
Type: NIESR Discussion Paper
This article surveys a subset of literature in macroeconomics which embraces the existence of multiple equilibria. This indeterminacy agenda in macroeconomics uses multiple-equilibrium models to integrate economics with psychology. Economists have long argued that business cycles are driven by...
Type: NIESR Discussion Paper
A large number of countries around the world now provide some kind of tax incentive to encourage firms to undertake innovative activity. This paper presents the policy rationale for these incentives, discusses their design and potential effectiveness, and reviews the empirical evidence on their...
Type: NIESR Discussion Paper
Farmer and Nicolò (2018) show that the Farmer Monetary (FM)-Model outperforms the three-equation New-Keynesian (NK)-model in post war U.S. data. In this paper, we compare the marginal data density of the FM-model with marginal data densities for determinate and indeterminate versions of the NK-...
Type: Journal article/book/chapter
Many students still leave school without a good grasp of basic literacy, despite the negative implications for future educational and labour market outcomes. We evaluate how resources may be used within classrooms to reinforce the teaching of literacy. Specifically, teaching assistants are trained...
Type: Report
Religious and ethnic segregation in schools is an issue of concern for educationalists and policy makers because it has implications for equality and for inclusion and social cohesion. This report was commissioned by the Department for Education to provide evidence on how segregation might be...
Type: NiGEM Observations
This NiGEM Observation presents updated estimates of the economic impact of different Brexit scenarios based on analyses recently published by NIESR and building on earlier work on EU withdrawal by the Institute (e.g. Pain and Young, 2004; Ebell et al., 2016). It provides an overview of the...
Type: Business Conditions Forum Summary
The National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) hosted the first NIESR Business Conditions Forum (BCF) on 15th May 2019. The BCF is a quarterly meeting for chief economists/senior economists of major business and survey organisations, policy making institutions and NIESR with an...
Type: Journal article/book/chapter
Type: Wage Tracker
Nominal pay growth dips temporarily but is expected to stabilise at around 3½ per cent in the second quarter of 2019
Main points
According to new ONS statistics published this morning, UK average weekly earnings (AWE) expanded by 3.2 per cent including bonuses (3.3 per cent excluding...
Type: Report
This Education Endowment Foundation project was a randomised controlled trial (RCT) with 127 schools participating. It tested two interventions: the Improving Working Memory intervention (WM) and an adapted version, named the Working Memory Plus intervention (WM+). Both aimed to improve the...
Type: GDP Tracker
UK economy boosted by temporary factors in first quarter of 2019
Please find the full commentary in attachment.
Type: Report
In the wake of Parliament’s rejection of the proposed Brexit deal, there have been discussions between the Government and the Labour Party on a customs union as the basis for the future relationship between the United Kingdom and the European Union. This option also gained substantial support in...
Type: NIESR Discussion Paper
Exploiting differences in pre-crisis business banking relationships, we present evidence to suggest that restricted credit availability following the 2008 financial crisis increased the rate of business failure in the United Kingdom. But rather than "cleansing” the economy by accelerating the exit...
Type: NIESR Discussion Paper
We examine the welfare effects of GDP-indexed bonds in a New Keynesian DSGE model. We add to a literature showing that the issuance of GDP-indexed bond may help stabilise public debt and so give more room for countercyclical fiscal policy, by conducting a careful general equilibrium welfare...
Type: National Institute Economic Review
The UK’s future relationship with the European Union (EU) remains undecided. Brexit-related uncertainty has led to investment plans being deferred and increased stockbuilding.
Under our main-case forecast, based on a ‘soft’ Brexit and continuing uncertainty, GDP growth continues at around 1½ per...
Type: National Institute Economic Review
Recent data indicates that the global output growth cycle has peaked. We expect global GDP growth to continue, but at a slightly slower pace than in the past two years.
Tariff increases and trade disputes have contributed to slowing growth and have added uncertainty to the global economic outlook....
Type: National Institute Economic Review
Immigration is a key economic and social issue: it has fuelled economic growth and prosperity, changed the demographic composition of the UK and shaped much of the political agenda. It played a role in the outcome of the EU referendum vote, leading the Government to seek to remove free movement...
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