Publications
Type: Report
Background
The workplace pension reforms, introduced following the 2008 Pensions Act (and updated as part of the 2011 and 2014 Pensions Acts), require all employers to automatically enrol all eligible employees into a qualifying workplace pension scheme, although employees can choose to opt out....
Type: Report
In our accompanying report, Light at the end of the fiscal tunnel?, we highlighted the challenges the Westminster government is facing in providing good quality public services for the people of the United Kingdom at a time of spending reductions. Despite over eight years of austerity, these...
Type: GDP Estimate
Our monthly estimates of GDP suggest that output grew by 0.2 per cent in the three months ending in May 2018 following growth of 0.1 per cent in the three months ending in April 2018.
Type: Report
In January 2016 the Women and Equalities Committee published a report on Transgender Equality. In this report evidence was identified that suggested transgender people experience significant levels of inequality across a wide range of policy areas. This included inequality in the provision of...
Type: GDP Estimate
Our monthly estimates of GDP suggest that output grew by 0.1 per cent in the three months ending in April 2018 following growth of 0.1 per cent in the three months ending in March 2018.
Type: National Institute Economic Review
In his Spring Statement, the chancellor said that he saw light at the end of the fiscal tunnel. We are afraid that this will turn out to have been an illusion. While public borrowing has been reduced to sustainable levels, our analysis of the prospects for the public finances points to severe...
Type: National Institute Economic Review
This paper introduces a special issue of the Review on how the National Institute Global Econometric Model (NiGEM) is being used to navigate uncertain times. NiGEM is the leading global macroeconomic model, used by both policy-makers and the private sector across the globe for economic forecasting...
Type: National Institute Economic Review
There is a strong case for boosting public investment in many countries based on identified country-specific structural weaknesses and the relatively low levels of such investment. This paper analyses the potential macroeconomic benefits of increased public investment using simulations on NiGEM....
Type: National Institute Economic Review
For a large number of countries, we augment the specification of import demand in NiGEM by accounting for different import contents of individual expenditure components. Three examples illustrate that these changes have important implications for model outcomes. In the case of the recently enacted...
Type: National Institute Economic Review
Exchange rate fluctuations have been particularly large since mid-2014, displaying divergent developments across the period. The nominal effective exchange rate of the dollar has appreciated by 15 per cent since June 2014, masking a 25 per cent appreciation to December 2016 followed by a...
Type: National Institute Economic Review
We modify NiGEM in order to study the macroeconomic effects of imposing import tariffs in the US under different assumptions regarding the long-run price setting behaviour of exporters. Overall, the macroeconomic implications in the US resemble the impact of a cost shock or adverse supply shock as...
Type: National Institute Economic Review
We analyse the costs of Brexit. The results show that by 2030 a hard Brexit would reduce cumulative GDP growth by 18 percentage points compared to a situation where the UK continued its EU membership. The economic damage in our FTA and soft Brexit scenarios is less severe than in our hard Brexit...
Type: National Institute Economic Review
The Irish economy has recovered at an impressive pace from the economic and financial crisis that lasted from 2008–12. Nonetheless, as a small open economy with some lingering vulnerabilities from the recent crisis, the economy remains heavily exposed to potential adverse shocks. In this paper, we...
Type: National Institute Economic Review
Last year the global economy expanded at its fastest pace since 2011. We continue to expect to see slightly faster global growth this year with momentum being carried forward. We expect growth to continue to be broadly based.
With some advanced economies appearing to be operating at close to full...
Type: National Institute Economic Review
We have revised lower our GDP forecast for 2018 to just under 1.5 per cent mainly due to weak performance in the first quarter. But the slowdown is likely to be temporary.
The Commentary in this Review builds a case for higher government spending. We have, as a result, allowed for higher total...
Type: Economic Review Preview
This is a preview from the National Institute Economic Review, May 2018, no 244.
This Box, prepared by NIESR Principal Economist Iana Liadze and NIESR Senior Economist Arno Hantzsche, analyses who wins and who loses from erecting new barriers to trade and focuses in particular on the effect of...
Type: Economic Review Preview
This is a preview from the National Institute Economic Review, May 2018, no 244.
This Box, prepared by NIESR Senior Economist Cyrille Lenoel, reviews the literature on the predictive power of the yield curve, with a particular focus on the United States, and compute the current implied...
Type: Economic Review Preview
This is a preview from the National Institute Economic Review, May 2018, no 244.
This Box, prepared by NIESR Senior Economist Jason Lennard, investigates the degree to which economic growth has been synchronised across twenty OECD countries from the first age of globalisation to the present.
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Type: Report
In his recent Spring Statement, the chancellor said that he saw light at the end of the fiscal tunnel. We are afraid that this will turn out to have been an illusion. While public borrowing has been reduced to sustainable levels, our analysis of the prospects for the public finances points to...
Type: NIESR Discussion Paper
Football is the national sport of most of the planet. This paper examines how happy the outcomes of football matches make us. We calibrate these results relative to other activities and estimate the dynamic effects these exogenous events have on our utility over time. We find that football – on...
Type: NIESR Discussion Paper
There remains a puzzle around the world over why wage growth is so benign given the unemployment rate has returned to pre-recession levels. It is our contention that a considerable part of the explanation is the rise in underemployment which rose in the Great Recession but has not returned to pre-...
Type: GDP Estimate
Our monthly estimates of GDP suggest that output growth slowed to 0.2 per cent in the first quarter of 2018 from 0.4 per cent for the final quarter of 2017.
Type: Report
Concern about the UK’s productivity problem has become widespread. Fixing the UK’s productivity problem requires action for the lagging parts of the economy – low pay sectors such as retail and hospitality, the long tail of low-productivity firms, and the five million individuals in the UK lacking...
Type: NIESR Discussion Paper
I review the contribution and influence of Milton Friedman’s 1968 presidential address to the American Economic Association. I argue that Friedman’s influence on the practice of central banking was profound and that his argument in favour of monetary rules was responsible for thirty years of low...
Type: NIESR Discussion Paper
In this paper we incorporate a macroprudential policy model within a semi-structural global macroeconomic model, NiGEM. The existing NiGEM model is expanded for the UK, Germany and Italy¹ to include two macroprudential tools: loan-to-value ratios on mortgage lending and variable bank capital...
Type: National Institute Economic Review
Our new "virtual issue" of our Economic Review focussing on Productivity
Type: NIESR Discussion Paper
We study the effects of the announcements of ECB asset purchases and of financial stability measures in the euro area in the wake of the global financial crisis and the euro area sovereign debt crisis on ten-year government bond term premia in eleven euro area countries. We find that the term...
Type: Report
This report examines the impact of the welfare reform and welfare-to-work programmes introduced by the 2010–15 Conservative/Liberal Democrat Coalition Government and the Conservative Government elected in May 2015. A particular aim of the review was to examine the evidence about the ways in which...
Type: Policy Paper
Chancellor Phillip Hammond presented the first Spring Statement yesterday. This was not the occasion to expect new fiscal policies or for rabbits out of a hat – we were told that in advance – even the symbolic red budget box was missing. The Chancellor kept to his promise and made this a non-event...
Type: GDP Estimate
Our monthly estimates of GDP suggest that output growth slowed to 0.3 per cent in the 3 months to February from 0.4 per cent in the 3 months to January and the official estimate of 0.4 per cent for the final quarter of 2017.
Type: NIESR Discussion Paper
We examine the impact of management practices on firm performance among SMEs in Britain over the period 2011-2014, using a unique dataset which links survey data on management practices with firm performance data from the UK’s official business register. We find that SMEs are less likely to use...
Type: NIESR Discussion Paper
We refer to the idea that government must ‘tighten its belt’ as a necessary policy response to higher indebtedness as the household fallacy. We provide a reason to be skeptical of this claim that holds even if the economy always operates at full employment and all markets clear. Our argument rests...
Type: Journal article/book/chapter
Estimates of the performance pay (PP) premium using household survey data are upwardly biased due to the use of PP contracts in higher paying workplaces. Using nationally representative linked employer‐employee data we estimate the PP premium at the mean and across the wage distribution, after...
Type: Report
This report describes a randomised control trial (RCT) into the relative effectiveness of face-to-face compared to blended learning for adult English and maths learning. The report:
describes the RCT design decisions
describes implementation details
provides an assessment of how the trial worked
Type: Report
Type: GDP Estimate
Our monthly estimates of GDP suggest that output grew by 0.5 per cent in the 3 months to January, unchanged from the preliminary ONS estimate for the final quarter of 2017.
Type: National Institute Economic Review
In England, teacher shortages have worsened in recent years and one contributor is the declining rates of retention among newly qualified teachers (NQTs). We employ a method developed in the health-statistics literature to identify schools that both recruit an unusually high level of NQTs and lose...
Type: National Institute Economic Review
There is a perception among some commentators and policy analysts that leadership and managerial practices in private schools are superior to those in state schools. Analysing a survey of workplaces in Britain, we find little evidence to support this contention when examining the prevalence of...
Type: National Institute Economic Review
In recent years, governments have spent considerable time, effort and political capital on education reforms in the expectation that pupil attainment will improve.Since the mid-1990s reforms in England have focused on school governance issues, notably the weakening of local government control over...
Type: National Institute Economic Review
It might only be just a little too strong to argue that the housing market dominates our national life. Whilst economists, if they consider housing at all, would think of the consumption of housing services as another aspect of the basket of goods and services bought, like clothing or food, most...
Type: National Institute Economic Review
GDP is forecast to grow by nearly 2 per cent this year and in 2019. Our forecasts have been revised higher since November.
Annual consumer price inflation peaked at 3 per cent in the final quarter of 2017 and is forecast to ease back to the target rate of 2 per cent over the next eight quarters.
We...
Type: National Institute Economic Review
The global economy is expanding at its fastest pace since 2011. With momentum expected to carry into 2018, we have revised up our forecasts for growth in all of the major economies and regions.
But with many economies operating at close to full capacity, some slowdown in the pace of expansion is...
Type: National Institute Economic Review
A major part of the 2010–15 UK government’s education reforms in England was a focus on the curriculum that pupils study from ages 14–16. Most high profile was the introduction of the English Baccalaureate (EBacc) performance measure for schools, incentivising study of “subjects the Russell Group...
Type: National Institute Economic Review
We explore the variation in pupil attainment at the end of secondary schooling in England. The paper links data on all schools and all pupils within these schools to analyse the role of the school in accounting for this variation. We analyse a number of different indicators of pupil attainment...
Type: National Institute Economic Review
In this note, we focus on underemployment as a potential cause of lower wage growth, which itself may have deeper causes, but which has, we would argue, demonstrably changed since the 2008 recession. The gap between our measures of the number of additional hours required by those who want more...
Type: Report
Executive summary
Aims and objectives of counterfactual wage research
Over the summer, the National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) conducted an independent review of the methodology used by the Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy (BEIS) for estimating the cost...
Type: Economic Review Preview
This is a preview from the National Institute Economic Review, February 2018, no 243.
This Box, prepared by NIESR Senior Economist Jason Lennard and Konstantinos Theodoridis, Professor of Macroeconomics at Cardiff Business School, analyses how an exogenous increase in the price of oil might...
Type: NIESR Discussion Paper
We decompose aggregate consumption of heterogeneous consumers by modelling both savers and their links to collateral constrained borrowers through a bank which prices credit risk. Savers own both firms and the commercial bank while borrowers require loans from the commercial bank to effect their...
Type: Policy Paper
Professor Jagjit S Chadha's written evidence submitted to the Treasury Committee on 29th November 2017 (written evidence can also be found here)
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