Publications
Publication date: 28 Oct 2020
| Publication type: Economic Review Preview
This is a preview from the National Institute Economic Review, November 2020, no 254.
School closures have generated considerable concerns over the impacts on children’s educational outcomes. Re-opening schools is of vital importance not only for children’s education but also beyond, although...
Publication date: 27 Oct 2020
| Publication type: Economic Review Preview
This is a preview from the National Institute Economic Review, November 2020, no 254.
The Box examines the behaviour of government bond yields in the US, the UK and Europe, assessing – in particular – whether investors have demanded higher term premia following an upsurge in uncertainty since...
Publication date: 27 Oct 2020
| Publication type: Economic Review Preview
This is a preview from the National Institute Economic Review, November 2020, no 254.
Despite so far successfully bouncing back after Covid-19 shock, China is facing a twin challenge from falling global demand and its rapidly ageing society. To address this challenge, the country needs to raise...
Publication date: 27 Jul 2020
| Publication type: Economic Review Preview
This is a preview from the National Institute Economic Review, August 2020, no 253.
The Covid-19 pandemic has revived protectionist measures. The most proximate trigger for this switch is a desire to prioritise national security interests and public health concerns over the long- standing...
Publication date: 23 Jul 2020
| Publication type: Economic Review Preview
This is a preview from the National Institute Economic Review, August 2020, no 253.
Business creation is an informative measure of real economic activity. During exceptional events such as the Covid-19 pandemic, it is important to develop tools that allow us to measure in real time the effect of...
Publication date: 24 Apr 2020
| Publication type: Economic Review Preview
This is a preview from the National Institute Economic Review, May 2020, no 252.
The largest quarterly fall in output in modern times in the UK (so far) was in the second quarter of 1921 when GDP at constant market prices fell by 12.3 per cent. This was directly followed by the largest quarterly...
Publication date: 17 Apr 2020
| Publication type: Economic Review Preview
This is a preview from the National Institute Economic Review, May 2020, no 252.
The Covid-19 pandemic has delivered a shock that is truly global in nature. Cases of the virus have been reported in nearly every single country and territory in the world. At least 135 countries across the globe,...
Publication date: 4 Feb 2020
| Publication type: Economic Review Preview
This is a preview from the National Institute Economic Review, February 2020, no 251.
In the past two months some of the uncertainties around the trade war between the US and China have settled. The negotiations between the US and China have culminated in the Phase One agreement, which was signed...
Publication date: 23 Oct 2019
| Publication type: Economic Review Preview
| Theme: Macroeconomics
This is a preview from the National Institute Economic Review, November 2019, no 250.
The issue of whether fiscal and monetary policy should be coordinated is a hotly debated topic in the Euro Area. In September, the ECB cut the deposit interest rate and announced a new Quantitative Easing...
Publication date: 23 Oct 2019
| Publication type: Economic Review Preview
| Theme: Macroeconomics
This is a preview from the National Institute Economic Review, November 2019, no 250.
On 12 September 2019, the ECB Governing Council announced a comprehensive package of stimulatory measures in response to a weaker outlook for growth and inflation and a concern that inflation expectations were...
Publication date: 2 Sep 2019
| Publication type: Economic Review Preview
| Theme: Macroeconomics
In this box, which we published in our latest Review, NIER No. 249 August 2019, we evaluate the macroeconomic effects of expansionary fiscal policy measures on the UK economy. We consider two fiscal packages, one based on Labour Party policy and one based on some of the policies put forward...
Publication date: 29 Aug 2019
| Publication type: Economic Review Preview
| Theme: Exiting the EU & Britain after Brexit
This concise summary aims to illustrate the assumptions underpinning our view on the aggregate impact of a No-Deal Brexit on the UK economy, which we published in our latest Review, NIER No. 249 August 2019.
Publication date: 17 Jul 2019
| Publication type: Economic Review Preview
This is a preview from the National Institute Economic Review, August 2019, no 249.
In this box, prepared by NIESR's economists Arno Hantzsche and David Nguyen, we highlight the importance of reinvestments alongside new investment projects and shows that to bolster future welfare, policy...
Publication date: 18 Apr 2019
| Publication type: Economic Review Preview
This is a preview from the National Institute Economic Review, May 2019, no 248.
Inversions of the yield curve have a good track record of predicting recessions (see Estrella and Mishkin, 1998; Chinn and Kucko, 2015). The 10-year to 3-month spread between US Treasury yields became briefly negative...
Publication date: 15 Apr 2019
| Publication type: Economic Review Preview
| Theme: Macroeconomics
This is a preview from the National Institute Economic Review, May 2019, no 248. Sustained low investment constitutes a major area of concern for the UK economy, with consequences for living standards in the longer term. In this box, prepared by NIESR Senior Economist Cyrille Lenoel, we review the...
Publication date: 31 Jan 2019
| Publication type: Economic Review Preview
This is a preview from the National Institute Economic Review, February 2019, no 247.
With the long expansion phase since the recession bringing the rise in indebtedness into focus, it is natural to consider how real house prices in the advanced economies have fared in the expansion. In this Box...
Publication date: 25 Jan 2019
| Publication type: Economic Review Preview
This is a preview from the National Institute Economic Review, February 2019, no 247.
The UK labour market has become more interconnected. What are the macroeconomic implications of this trend?
In order to understand trends in aggregate labour market outcomes, such as wage and productivity...
Publication date: 1 Aug 2018
| Publication type: Economic Review Preview
| Theme: Macroeconomics
This is a preview from the National Institute Economic Review, August 2018, no 245.
"The consumer price index is a fundamental economic statistic for households, firms and policymakers. This number summarises the prices of hundreds of thousands of goods and services across the country. Yet the...
Publication date: 25 Jul 2018
| Publication type: Economic Review Preview
This is a preview from the National Institute Economic Review, August 2018, no 245.
This Box, prepared by NIESR Economist Marta Lopresto, addresses the heterogeneity of fiscal positions in the Euro Area, with a view to examining the effectiveness of fiscal expansions undertaken individually and...
Publication date: 23 Jul 2018
| Publication type: Economic Review Preview
This is a preview from the National Institute Economic Review, August 2018, no 245.
This Box, prepared by NIESR Principal Economist Iana Liadze, uses NIESR’s Global Econometric Model (NiGEM) to run stylised scenarios to investigate the impact of recent increases in tariffs on US and Chinese...
Publication date: 2 May 2018
| Publication type: Economic Review Preview
This is a preview from the National Institute Economic Review, May 2018, no 244.
This Box, prepared by NIESR Principal Economist Iana Liadze and NIESR Senior Economist Arno Hantzsche, analyses who wins and who loses from erecting new barriers to trade and focuses in particular on the effect of...
Publication date: 1 May 2018
| Publication type: Economic Review Preview
This is a preview from the National Institute Economic Review, May 2018, no 244.
This Box, prepared by NIESR Senior Economist Cyrille Lenoel, reviews the literature on the predictive power of the yield curve, with a particular focus on the United States, and compute the current implied...
Publication date: 27 Apr 2018
| Publication type: Economic Review Preview
This is a preview from the National Institute Economic Review, May 2018, no 244.
This Box, prepared by NIESR Senior Economist Jason Lennard, investigates the degree to which economic growth has been synchronised across twenty OECD countries from the first age of globalisation to the present.
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Publication date: 2 Feb 2018
| Publication type: Economic Review Preview
This is a preview from the National Institute Economic Review, February 2018, no 243.
This Box, prepared by NIESR Senior Economist Jason Lennard and Konstantinos Theodoridis, Professor of Macroeconomics at Cardiff Business School, analyses how an exogenous increase in the price of oil might...
Publication date: 26 Jan 2018
| Publication type: Economic Review Preview
This is a preview from the National Institute Economic Review, February 2018, no 243
This Box, prepared by NIESR Associate Research Director for Global Macroeconomics Barry Naisbitt and Database Manager Yanitzsa Kazalova, outlines why we downgraded the outlook for productivity growth in the UK...
Publication date: 24 Jan 2018
| Publication type: Economic Review Preview
This is a preview from the National Institute Economic Review, February 2018, no 243
This Box, prepared by NIESR Principal Economist Iana LIadze and Senior Economist Arno Hantzsche, analyses the effects that a possible announcement by the European Central Banks of ‘quantitative tightening’ may...
Publication date: 19 Oct 2017
| Publication type: Economic Review Preview
| Theme: Macroeconomics
This is a preview from the National Institute Economic Review, November 2017, no 242
This Box, prepared by NIESR Senior Economist Arno Hantzsche, outlines the interplay between private and public sector wage growth in the UK
"Political pressure is mounting to lift the cap on public sector pay...
Publication date: 25 Jul 2017
| Publication type: Economic Review Preview
| Theme: Macroeconomics
This is a preview from the National Institute Economic Review, August 2017, no 241
Ahead of the forthcoming issue of the National Institute Economic Review (NIER no. 241) that will be published on Wednesday 2nd August, we release a series of boxes, each of them looking at specific aspects of ...
Publication date: 21 Jul 2017
| Publication type: Economic Review Preview
| Theme: Macroeconomics
This is a preview from the National Institute Economic Review, August 2017, no 241
Ahead of the forthcoming issue of the National Institute Economic Review (NIER no. 241) that will be published on Wednesday 2nd August, we release a series of boxes, each of them looking at specific aspects of ...
Publication date: 17 Jul 2017
| Publication type: Economic Review Preview
| Theme: Employment & Social policy
This is a preview from the National Institute Economic Review, August 2017, no 241
Ahead of the forthcoming issue of the National Institute Economic Review (NIER no. 241) that will be published on Wednesday 2nd August, we release a series of boxes, each of them looking at specific aspects of ...
Publication date: 28 Oct 2016
| Publication type: Economic Review Preview
| Theme: Macroeconomics
This is a preview from the National Institute Economic Review, November 2016, no 238
Ahead of the forthcoming issue of the National Institute Economic Review (NIER no. 238) that will be published on Wednesday 2nd November, we release a series of boxes, each of them looking at specific aspects of ...
Publication date: 28 Oct 2016
| Publication type: Economic Review Preview
| Theme: Macroeconomics
This is a preview from the National Institute Economic Review, November 2016, no 238
Ahead of the forthcoming issue of the National Institute Economic Review (NIER no. 238) that will be published on Wednesday 2nd November, we release a series of boxes, each of them looking at specific aspects of ...
Publication date: 26 Oct 2016
| Publication type: Economic Review Preview
| Theme: Macroeconomics, Exiting the EU & Britain after Brexit
This is a preview from the National Institute Economic Review, November 2016, no 238
Ahead of the forthcoming issue of the National Institute Economic Review (NIER no. 238) that will be published on Wednesday 2nd November, we release a series of boxes, each of them looking at specific aspects of ...
Publication date: 26 Oct 2016
| Publication type: Economic Review Preview
| Theme: Macroeconomics, Exiting the EU & Britain after Brexit
This is a preview from the National Institute Economic Review, November 2016, no 238
Ahead of the forthcoming issue of the National Institute Economic Review (NIER no. 238) that will be published on Wednesday 2nd November, we release a series of boxes, each of them looking at specific aspects of ...
Publication date: 28 Jul 2016
| Publication type: Economic Review Preview
| Theme: Macroeconomics, Exiting the EU & Britain after Brexit
This is a preview from the National Institute Economic Review, August 2016, no 237
Ahead of the forthcoming issue of the National Institute Economic Review (NIER no. 237) that will be published on Wednesday 3rd August, we release a series of boxes, each of them looking at specific aspects of the...
Publication date: 28 Jul 2016
| Publication type: Economic Review Preview
| Theme: Macroeconomics, Exiting the EU & Britain after Brexit
This is a preview from the National Institute Economic Review, August 2016, no 237
Ahead of the forthcoming issue of the National Institute Economic Review (NIER no. 237) that will be published on Wednesday 3rd August, we release a series of boxes, each of them looking at specific aspects of the...
Publication date: 26 Jul 2016
| Publication type: Economic Review Preview
| Theme: Macroeconomics, Exiting the EU & Britain after Brexit
This is a preview from the National Institute Economic Review, August 2016, no 237
Ahead of the forthcoming issue of the National Institute Economic Review (NIER no. 237) that will be published on Wednesday 3rd August, we release a series of boxes, each of them looking at specific aspects of the...
Publication date: 26 Jul 2016
| Publication type: Economic Review Preview
| Theme: Macroeconomics, Exiting the EU & Britain after Brexit
This is a preview from the National Institute Economic Review, August 2016, no 237
Ahead of the forthcoming issue of the National Institute Economic Review (NIER no. 237) that will be published on Wednesday 3rd August, we release a series of boxes, each of them looking at specific aspects of the...
