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Publications

Implications of school re-openings in the UK
Publication date: 28 Oct 2020 | Publication type: Economic Review Preview | NIESR Author(s): Boshoff, J, Bowyer-Crane, C, Stokes, L
  This is a preview from the National Institute Economic Review, November 2020, no 254.  School closures have generated considerable concerns over the impacts on children’s educational outcomes. Re-opening schools is of vital importance not only for children’s education but also beyond, although...
Government bond term premia during the pandemic
Publication date: 27 Oct 2020 | Publication type: Economic Review Preview | NIESR Author(s): Macchiarelli, C
  This is a preview from the National Institute Economic Review, November 2020, no 254.  The Box examines the behaviour of government bond yields in the US, the UK and Europe, assessing – in particular – whether investors have demanded higher term premia following an upsurge in uncertainty since...
Growth, productivity and digitalisation in China
Publication date: 27 Oct 2020 | Publication type: Economic Review Preview | NIESR Author(s): Nguyen, D
This is a preview from the National Institute Economic Review, November 2020, no 254.  Despite so far successfully bouncing back after Covid-19 shock, China is facing a twin challenge from falling global demand and its rapidly ageing society. To address this challenge, the country needs to raise...
The macroeconomics of de-globalisation
Publication date: 27 Jul 2020 | Publication type: Economic Review Preview | NIESR Author(s): Liadze, I, Kara, A
  This is a preview from the National Institute Economic Review, August 2020, no 253.   The Covid-19 pandemic has revived protectionist measures. The most proximate trigger for this switch is a desire to prioritise national security interests and public health concerns over the long- standing...
Firm creation in the UK during lockdown
Publication date: 23 Jul 2020 | Publication type: Economic Review Preview | External Author(s): Duncan, A.; León-Ledesma, M.; Savagar, A
  This is a preview from the National Institute Economic Review, August 2020, no 253. Business creation is an informative measure of real economic activity. During exceptional events such as the Covid-19 pandemic, it is important to develop tools that allow us to measure in real time the effect of...
The slump of the 1920s
Publication date: 24 Apr 2020 | Publication type: Economic Review Preview | NIESR Author(s): Chadha, J S
  This is a preview from the National Institute Economic Review, May 2020, no 252. The largest quarterly fall in output in modern times in the UK (so far) was in the second quarter of 1921 when GDP at constant market prices fell by 12.3 per cent. This was directly followed by the largest quarterly...
Quantifying the global macroeconomic spillovers of illness and lockdown measures
Publication date: 17 Apr 2020 | Publication type: Economic Review Preview | NIESR Author(s): Holland, D, Liadze, I
  This is a preview from the National Institute Economic Review, May 2020, no 252. The Covid-19 pandemic has delivered a shock that is truly global in nature. Cases of the virus have been reported in nearly every single country and territory in the world. At least 135 countries across the globe,...
The effects of the trade war on inflation
Publication date: 4 Feb 2020 | Publication type: Economic Review Preview | NIESR Author(s): Naisbitt, B, Whyte, K
  This is a preview from the National Institute Economic Review, February 2020, no 251. In the past two months some of the uncertainties around the trade war between the US and China have settled. The negotiations between the US and China have culminated in the Phase One agreement, which was signed...
Could a fiscal boost raise inflation in the Euro Area?
Publication date: 23 Oct 2019 | Publication type: Economic Review Preview | Theme: Macroeconomics | NIESR Author(s): Lenoel, C
  This is a preview from the National Institute Economic Review, November 2019, no 250.   The issue of whether fiscal and monetary policy should be coordinated is a hotly debated topic in the Euro Area. In September, the ECB cut the deposit interest rate and announced a new Quantitative Easing...
The (in)effectiveness of the latest round of ECB asset purchases
Publication date: 23 Oct 2019 | Publication type: Economic Review Preview | Theme: Macroeconomics | NIESR Author(s): Young, G | External Author(s): Sanchez Juanino, P
  This is a preview from the National Institute Economic Review, November 2019, no 250.   On 12 September 2019, the ECB Governing Council announced a comprehensive package of stimulatory measures in response to a weaker outlook for growth and inflation and a concern that inflation expectations were...
The macroeconomics of fiscal give-aways
Publication date: 2 Sep 2019 | Publication type: Economic Review Preview | Theme: Macroeconomics
  In this box,  which we published in our latest Review, NIER No. 249 August 2019, we evaluate the macroeconomic effects of expansionary fiscal policy measures on the UK economy. We consider two fiscal packages, one based on Labour Party policy and one based on some of the policies put forward...
Brexit assumptions and alternative scenarios
Publication date: 29 Aug 2019 | Publication type: Economic Review Preview | Theme: Exiting the EU & Britain after Brexit
This concise summary aims to illustrate the assumptions underpinning our view on the aggregate impact of a No-Deal Brexit on the UK economy, which we published in our latest Review, NIER No. 249 August 2019.  
Investment in ‘Global Britain’ – gain, retain … or risk economic pain?
Publication date: 17 Jul 2019 | Publication type: Economic Review Preview | NIESR Author(s): Hantzsche, A, Nguyen, D
    This is a preview from the National Institute Economic Review, August 2019, no 249.   In this box, prepared by NIESR's economists Arno Hantzsche and David Nguyen, we highlight the importance of reinvestments alongside new investment projects and shows that to bolster future welfare, policy...
Is the US yield curve signalling that a recession is on the way?
Publication date: 18 Apr 2019 | Publication type: Economic Review Preview | NIESR Author(s): Lenoel, C
This is a preview from the National Institute Economic Review, May 2019, no 248. Inversions of the yield curve have a good track record of predicting recessions (see Estrella and Mishkin, 1998; Chinn and Kucko, 2015). The 10-year to 3-month spread between US Treasury yields became briefly negative...
The disappointing picture of business investment
Publication date: 15 Apr 2019 | Publication type: Economic Review Preview | Theme: Macroeconomics | NIESR Author(s): Lenoel, C
This is a preview from the National Institute Economic Review, May 2019, no 248. Sustained low investment constitutes a major area of concern for the UK economy, with consequences for living standards in the longer term. In this box, prepared by NIESR Senior Economist Cyrille Lenoel, we review the...
The risks from rising real house prices
Publication date: 31 Jan 2019 | Publication type: Economic Review Preview | NIESR Author(s): Naisbitt, B
This is a preview from the National Institute Economic Review, February 2019, no 247.    With the long expansion phase since the recession bringing the rise in indebtedness into focus, it is natural to consider how real house prices in the advanced economies have fared in the expansion. In this Box...
Structural changes in UK sectoral labour markets and their macroeconomic implications
Publication date: 25 Jan 2019 | Publication type: Economic Review Preview | NIESR Author(s): Hantzsche, A, Butler Blondel, N
This is a preview from the National Institute Economic Review, February 2019, no 247.    The UK labour market has become more interconnected. What are the macroeconomic implications of this trend? In order to understand trends in aggregate labour market outcomes, such as wage and productivity...
The price of everything
Publication date: 1 Aug 2018 | Publication type: Economic Review Preview | Theme: Macroeconomics | NIESR Author(s): Lennard, J
This is a preview from the National Institute Economic Review, August 2018, no 245.   "The consumer price index is a fundamental economic statistic for households, firms and policymakers. This number summarises the prices of hundreds of thousands of goods and services across the country. Yet the...
Intra-Euro Area spillovers – simulating the effects of fiscal stimulus
Publication date: 25 Jul 2018 | Publication type: Economic Review Preview
  This is a preview from the National Institute Economic Review, August 2018, no 245.  This Box, prepared by NIESR Economist Marta Lopresto, addresses the heterogeneity of fiscal positions in the Euro Area, with a view to examining the effectiveness of fiscal expansions undertaken individually and...
Trade wars - any winners?
Publication date: 23 Jul 2018 | Publication type: Economic Review Preview | NIESR Author(s): Liadze, I
This is a preview from the National Institute Economic Review, August 2018, no 245.  This Box, prepared by NIESR Principal Economist Iana Liadze, uses NIESR’s Global Econometric Model (NiGEM) to run stylised scenarios to investigate the impact of recent increases in tariffs on US and Chinese...
The war on trade: beggar thy neighbour – beggar thyself?
Publication date: 2 May 2018 | Publication type: Economic Review Preview | NIESR Author(s): Hantzsche, A, Liadze, I
This is a preview from the National Institute Economic Review, May 2018, no 244.    This Box, prepared by NIESR Principal Economist Iana Liadze and NIESR Senior Economist Arno Hantzsche, analyses who wins and who loses from erecting new barriers to trade and focuses in particular on the effect of...
Predicting recessions in the United States with the yield curve
Publication date: 1 May 2018 | Publication type: Economic Review Preview
This is a preview from the National Institute Economic Review, May 2018, no 244.    This Box, prepared by NIESR Senior Economist Cyrille Lenoel, reviews the literature on the predictive power of the yield curve, with a particular focus on the United States, and compute the current implied...
The Great Synchronisation
Publication date: 27 Apr 2018 | Publication type: Economic Review Preview
This is a preview from the National Institute Economic Review, May 2018, no 244.  This Box, prepared by NIESR Senior Economist Jason Lennard, investigates the degree to which economic growth has been synchronised across twenty OECD countries from the first age of globalisation to the present. "...
Oil and the macroeconomy
Publication date: 2 Feb 2018 | Publication type: Economic Review Preview
  This is a preview from the National Institute Economic Review, February 2018, no 243.   This Box, prepared by NIESR Senior Economist Jason Lennard and Konstantinos Theodoridis, Professor of Macroeconomics at Cardiff Business School, analyses how an exogenous increase in the price of oil might...
Disappointing productivity growth: an international dimension
Publication date: 26 Jan 2018 | Publication type: Economic Review Preview | NIESR Author(s): Kazalova, Y, Naisbitt, B
  This is a preview from the National Institute Economic Review, February 2018, no 243   This Box, prepared by NIESR Associate Research Director for Global Macroeconomics Barry Naisbitt and Database Manager Yanitzsa Kazalova, outlines why we downgraded the outlook for productivity growth in the UK...
Quantitative tightening in the eurozone?
Publication date: 24 Jan 2018 | Publication type: Economic Review Preview | NIESR Author(s): Hantzsche, A, Liadze, I
  This is a preview from the National Institute Economic Review, February 2018, no 243   This Box, prepared by NIESR Principal Economist Iana LIadze and Senior Economist Arno Hantzsche, analyses the effects that a possible announcement by the European Central Banks of ‘quantitative tightening’ may...
Lifting the cap? The importance of interactions between public and private sector wage growth in the UK
Publication date: 19 Oct 2017 | Publication type: Economic Review Preview | Theme: Macroeconomics | NIESR Author(s): Hantzsche, A
This is a preview from the National Institute Economic Review, November 2017, no 242   This Box, prepared by NIESR Senior Economist Arno Hantzsche, outlines the interplay between private and public sector wage growth in the UK    "Political pressure is mounting to lift the cap on public sector pay...
Completing the EU’s Economic and Monetary Union: progress and plans
Publication date: 25 Jul 2017 | Publication type: Economic Review Preview | Theme: Macroeconomics | NIESR Author(s): Hacche, G
  This is a preview from the National Institute Economic Review, August 2017, no 241   Ahead of the forthcoming issue of the National Institute Economic Review (NIER no. 241) that will be published on Wednesday 2nd August, we release a series of boxes, each of them looking at specific aspects of ...
The UK Investment Puzzle
Publication date: 21 Jul 2017 | Publication type: Economic Review Preview | Theme: Macroeconomics | External Author(s): Williams, R.
  This is a preview from the National Institute Economic Review, August 2017, no 241   Ahead of the forthcoming issue of the National Institute Economic Review (NIER no. 241) that will be published on Wednesday 2nd August, we release a series of boxes, each of them looking at specific aspects of ...
Public and private sector wage increases – the real story
Publication date: 17 Jul 2017 | Publication type: Economic Review Preview | Theme: Employment & Social policy | NIESR Author(s): Dolton, P
  This is a preview from the National Institute Economic Review, August 2017, no 241   Ahead of the forthcoming issue of the National Institute Economic Review (NIER no. 241) that will be published on Wednesday 2nd August, we release a series of boxes, each of them looking at specific aspects of ...
Secular decline in global interest rates
Publication date: 28 Oct 2016 | Publication type: Economic Review Preview | Theme: Macroeconomics | NIESR Author(s): Meaning, J, Piggott, R
  This is a preview from the National Institute Economic Review, November 2016, no 238 Ahead of the forthcoming issue of the National Institute Economic Review (NIER no. 238) that will be published on Wednesday 2nd November, we release a series of boxes, each of them looking at specific aspects of ...
The fiscal implications of recent monetary policy developments
Publication date: 28 Oct 2016 | Publication type: Economic Review Preview | Theme: Macroeconomics | NIESR Author(s): Kirby, S, Meaning, J
This is a preview from the National Institute Economic Review, November 2016, no 238 Ahead of the forthcoming issue of the National Institute Economic Review (NIER no. 238) that will be published on Wednesday 2nd November, we release a series of boxes, each of them looking at specific aspects of ...
Constraints on the European Central Bank’s QE programme
Publication date: 26 Oct 2016 | Publication type: Economic Review Preview | Theme: Macroeconomics, Exiting the EU & Britain after Brexit | NIESR Author(s): Kirby, S, Meaning, J
  This is a preview from the National Institute Economic Review, November 2016, no 238 Ahead of the forthcoming issue of the National Institute Economic Review (NIER no. 238) that will be published on Wednesday 2nd November, we release a series of boxes, each of them looking at specific aspects of ...
Post referendum developments in uncertainty measures: an update
Publication date: 26 Oct 2016 | Publication type: Economic Review Preview | Theme: Macroeconomics, Exiting the EU & Britain after Brexit | NIESR Author(s): Piggott, R
  This is a preview from the National Institute Economic Review, November 2016, no 238 Ahead of the forthcoming issue of the National Institute Economic Review (NIER no. 238) that will be published on Wednesday 2nd November, we release a series of boxes, each of them looking at specific aspects of ...
Immediate financial market movements post-Referendum
Publication date: 28 Jul 2016 | Publication type: Economic Review Preview | Theme: Macroeconomics, Exiting the EU & Britain after Brexit | NIESR Author(s):
This is a preview from the National Institute Economic Review, August 2016, no 237 Ahead of the forthcoming issue of the National Institute Economic Review (NIER no. 237) that will be published on Wednesday 3rd August, we release a series of boxes, each of them looking at specific aspects of the...
The UK’s decision to leave the EU: the impact on European economies
Publication date: 28 Jul 2016 | Publication type: Economic Review Preview | Theme: Macroeconomics, Exiting the EU & Britain after Brexit | NIESR Author(s): Kirby, S
This is a preview from the National Institute Economic Review, August 2016, no 237 Ahead of the forthcoming issue of the National Institute Economic Review (NIER no. 237) that will be published on Wednesday 3rd August, we release a series of boxes, each of them looking at specific aspects of the...
Article 50: withdrawing from the EU
Publication date: 26 Jul 2016 | Publication type: Economic Review Preview | Theme: Macroeconomics, Exiting the EU & Britain after Brexit | NIESR Author(s): Armstrong, A
This is a preview from the National Institute Economic Review, August 2016, no 237 Ahead of the forthcoming issue of the National Institute Economic Review (NIER no. 237) that will be published on Wednesday 3rd August, we release a series of boxes, each of them looking at specific aspects of the...
Brexit, Trade, and Gross Value Added
Publication date: 26 Jul 2016 | Publication type: Economic Review Preview | Theme: Macroeconomics, Exiting the EU & Britain after Brexit | NIESR Author(s): Ebell, M
This is a preview from the National Institute Economic Review, August 2016, no 237 Ahead of the forthcoming issue of the National Institute Economic Review (NIER no. 237) that will be published on Wednesday 3rd August, we release a series of boxes, each of them looking at specific aspects of the...

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