Publications
Type: GDP Estimate
Our monthly estimates of GDP suggest that output grew by 0.2 per cent in the three months ending in May 2018 following growth of 0.1 per cent in the three months ending in April 2018.
Type: GDP Estimate
Our monthly estimates of GDP suggest that output grew by 0.1 per cent in the three months ending in April 2018 following growth of 0.1 per cent in the three months ending in March 2018.
Type: GDP Estimate
Our monthly estimates of GDP suggest that output growth slowed to 0.2 per cent in the first quarter of 2018 from 0.4 per cent for the final quarter of 2017.
Type: GDP Estimate
Our monthly estimates of GDP suggest that output growth slowed to 0.3 per cent in the 3 months to February from 0.4 per cent in the 3 months to January and the official estimate of 0.4 per cent for the final quarter of 2017.
Type: GDP Estimate
Our monthly estimates of GDP suggest that output grew by 0.5 per cent in the 3 months to January, unchanged from the preliminary ONS estimate for the final quarter of 2017.
Type: GDP Estimate
Our monthly estimates of GDP suggest that output grew by 0.6 per cent in the final quarter of 2017, an increase compared with the third quarter when the economy expanded by 0.4 per cent and the strongest quarterly growth estimate since the fourth quarter of 2016. Based on this, the UK economy...
Type: GDP Estimate
Our monthly estimates of GDP suggest that output expanded by 0.5 per cent in the three months to November, similar to our estimate from last month and slightly stronger than the official outturn for the third quarter of 2017 which was 0.4 per cent. The monthly estimate is closely tracking our...
Type: GDP Estimate
Our monthly estimates of GDP suggest that output expanded by 0.5 per cent in the three months to October, slightly stronger than the official outturn for the third quarter of 2017 which was 0.4 per cent. The monthly estimate is closely tracking our forecast for real GDP growth for the final quarter...
Type: GDP Estimate
Our monthly estimates of GDP suggest that output grew by 0.4 per cent in the third quarter of this year, a slight increase in comparison with the second quarter when the economy expanded by 0.3 per cent. Although growth has nudged higher, the UK economy continues to lag behind other major...
Type: GDP Estimate
Our monthly estimates of GDP suggest that output grew by 0.4 per cent in the three months ending in August 2017 after growth of 0.2 per cent in the three months to July: although activity has nudged higher, the economy continues to grow below its long run trend of some 0.6 percent.
Type: GDP Estimate
Our monthly estimates of GDP suggest that output grew by 0.2 per cent in the three months ending in July 2017 after growth of 0.3 per cent in the second quarter of 2017: the economy continues to grow below its long run trend of 0.6 percent.
Type: GDP Estimate
Our monthly estimates of GDP suggest that output grew by 0.3 per cent in the three months ending in June 2017 after growth of 0.3 per cent in the three months ending in May 2017: the economy continues to grow below its long run trend of 0.6 percent.
Type: GDP Estimate
Our monthly estimates of GDP suggest that output grew by 0.2 per cent in the three months ending in May 2017 after growth of 0.2 per cent in the three months ending in April 2017.
Type: GDP Estimate
Our monthly estimates of GDP suggest that output grew by 0.2 per cent in the three months ending in April 2017 after growth of 0.3 per cent in the three months ending in March 2017.
Type: GDP Estimate
Our monthly estimates of GDP suggest that output grew by 0.5 per cent in the three months ending in March 2017 after growth of 0.5 per cent in the three months ending in February 2017.
Type: GDP Estimate
Our monthly estimates of GDP suggest that output grew by 0.6 per cent in the three months ending in February 2017 after growth of 0.8 per cent in the three months ending in January 2017
Type: GDP Estimate
Our monthly estimates of GDP suggest that output grew by 0.7 per cent in the three months ending in January 2017 after growth of 0.6 per cent in the three months ending in December 2016.
Type: GDP Estimate
Our monthly estimates of GDP suggest that output grew by 0.5 per cent in the three months ending in December 2016 after growth of 0.5 per cent in the three months ending in November 2016. Our estimates suggest that the economy grew by 2 per cent in 2016, compared with 2.2 per cent in 2015.
Type: GDP Estimate
Our monthly estimates of GDP suggest that output grew by 0.4 per cent in the three months ending in November 2016 after growth of 0.4 per cent in the three months ending in October 2016.
Type: GDP Estimate
Our monthly estimates of GDP suggest that output grew by 0.4 per cent in the three months ending in October 2016 after growth of 0.5 per cent in the three months ending in September 2016.
Type: GDP Estimate
Our monthly estimates of GDP suggest that output grew by 0.4 per cent in the three months ending in September 2016 after growth of 0.5 per cent in the three months ending in August 2016.
*See here for press release published 7th September 2016
Type: GDP Estimate
Our monthly estimates of GDP suggest that output grew by 0.3 per cent in the three months ending in August 2016 after growth of 0.4 per cent in the three months ending in July 2016.
*See here for press release published 9th August
Type: GDP Estimate
Our monthly estimates of GDP suggest that output grew by 0.3 per cent in the three months ending in July 2016 after growth of 0.6 per cent in the three months ending in June 2016.
James Warren, Research Fellow at NIESR said “We estimate that in the three months to July the UK economy grew by 0.3...
Type: GDP Estimate
Our monthly estimates of GDP suggest that output grew by 0.6 per cent in the three months ending in June 2016 after growth of 0.6 per cent in the three months ending in May 2016.
Jack Meaning, Research Fellow at NIESR said “At first glance this represents a robust rate of quarterly growth for the...
Type: GDP Estimate
Our monthly estimates of GDP suggest that output grew by 0.5 per cent in the three months ending in May 2016 after growth of 0.4 per cent in the three months ending in April 2016.
James Warren, Research Fellow at NIESR, said “A rebound of production sector output in has supported reasonable GDP...
Type: GDP Estimate
Our monthly estimates of GDP suggest that output grew by 0.3 per cent in the three months ending in April 2016 after growth of 0.4 per cent in the three months ending in March 2016.
Jack Meaning, Research Fellow at NIESR, said “UK economic growth continues to be subdued compared with the rates we...
Type: GDP Estimate
Our monthly estimates of GDP suggest that output grew by 0.3 per cent in the three months ending in March 2016 after growth of 0.2 per cent in the three months ending in February 2016. This estimate represents the weakest rate of growth for the UK economy since the final quarter of 2012.
James...
Type: GDP Estimate
Our monthly estimates of GDP suggest that output grew by 0.3 per cent in the three months ending in February 2016 after growth of 0.4 per cent in the three months ending in January 2016. The particularly weak monthly figure for December 2015 continues to weigh on these three-month growth rates as...
Type: GDP Estimate
Our monthly estimates of GDP suggest that output grew by 0.4 per cent in the three months ending in January 2016 after growth of 0.5 per cent in the three months ending in December 2015. The softening of growth in the 3 months to January was primarily driven by weakness in the production sector in...
Type: GDP Estimate
Our monthly estimates of GDP suggest that output grew by 0.6 per cent in the three months ending in December 2015 after growth of 0.6 per cent in the three months ending in November 2015. This implies the UK economy expanded by 2.2 per cent in 2015. Although this is a moderation compared to the 2...
Type: GDP Estimate
Our monthly estimates of GDP suggest that output grew by 0.6 per cent in the three months ending in November after growth of 0.5 per cent in the three months ending in October 2015. This rate of growth is consistent with the continued absorption of spare capacity in the UK economy and our own view...
Type: GDP Estimate
Our monthly estimates of GDP suggest that output grew by 0.6 per cent in the three months ending in October after growth of 0.5 per cent in the three months ending in September 2015. This implies that reasonable economic growth has continued into the fourth quarter of 2015.
* NIESR’s latest...
Type: GDP Estimate
Our monthly estimates of GDP suggest that output grew by 0.5 per cent in the three months ending in September after growth of 0.5 per cent in the three months ending in August 2015. This slight softening in the third quarter is expected to be temporary. It is consistent with our latest forecast for...
Type: GDP Estimate
Our monthly estimates of GDP suggest that output grew by 0.5 per cent in the three months ending in August after growth of 0.6 per cent in the three months ending in July 2015. Despite the slight softening, growth remains close to the estimated long run potential of the economy, but below the...
Type: GDP Estimate
Our monthly estimates of GDP suggest that output grew by 0.7 per cent in the three months ending in July after growth of 0.7 per cent in the three months ending in June 2015. Compared to the same three month period in 2014, this implies a year-on-year growth rate of 2.7 per cent. This is consistent...
Type: GDP Estimate
Our monthly estimates of GDP suggest that output grew by 0.7 per cent in the three months ending in June after growth of 0.6 per cent in the three months ending in May 2015. This implies that the economy has expanded by 2.7 per cent in the last 12 months.*
This robust rate of growth exceeds that of...
Type: GDP Estimate
Our monthly estimates of GDP suggest that output grew by 0.6 per cent in the three months ending in May after growth of 0.5 per cent in the three months ending in April 2015. These estimates are consistent with a rebound of economic growth in the second quarter of this year. For the year as a whole...
Type: GDP Estimate
Our monthly estimates of GDP suggest that output grew by 0.4 per cent in the three months ending in April after growth of 0.3 per cent in the three months ending in March 2015. We expect the slight softening of GDP growth experienced in the first quarter of this year to be temporary and forecast...
Type: GDP Estimate
Our monthly estimates of GDP suggest that output grew by 0.6 per cent in the three months ending in March 2015 after growth of 0.6 per cent in the three months ending in February 2015. The start of the year has seen the economy grow at a reasonable pace. This is despite the poor performance of both...
Type: GDP Estimate
Our monthly estimates of GDP suggest that output grew by 0.6 per cent in the three months ending in February 2015 after growth of 0.6 per cent in the three months ending in January 2015. Based on our monthly series, this is in line with the average rate of growth of the UK economy since June 2014.
Type: GDP Estimate
Our monthly estimates of GDP suggest that output grew by 0.7 per cent in the three months ending in January after growth of 0.5 per cent in the three months ending in December 2014.
Type: GDP Estimate
Our monthly estimates of GDP suggest that output grew by 0.6 per cent in the three months ending in December (2014Q4) after growth of 0.7 per cent in the three months ending in November 2014. By this estimate the UK economy grew by 2.6 per cent in 2014.
Type: GDP Estimate
Our monthly estimates of GDP suggest that output grew by 0.7 per cent in the three months ending in November after growth of 0.7 per cent in the three months ending in October 2014.
* NIESR’s latest quarterly forecast (published 5th November 2014) projects GDP growth of 3 per cent per annum in 2014...
Type: GDP Estimate
Our monthly estimates of GDP suggest that output grew by 0.7 per cent in the three months ending in October after growth of 0.7 per cent in the three months ending in September 2014. This estimate implies that output growth remains strong going in to the final quarter of 2014 and is consistent...
Type: GDP Estimate
Our monthly estimates of GDP suggest that output grew by 0.7 per cent in the three months ending in September after growth of 0.8 per cent in the three months ending in August 2014.
Note: NIESR’s monthly GDP estimates are consistent with the revised Quarterly National Accounts released by the ONS...
Type: GDP Estimate
Our monthly estimates of GDP suggest that output grew by 0.6 per cent in the three months ending in August after growth of 0.5 per cent in the three months ending in July 2014. This implies the UK economy has grown around 2.9 per cent when compared to the same period in 2013.
This estimate is...
Type: GDP Estimate
Our monthly estimates of GDP suggest that output grew by 0.6 per cent in the three months ending in July after growth of 0.8 per cent in the three months ending in June 2014. This implies an annual rate of growth of around 3 per cent. While the economy regained its pre-recession size recently, a...
Type: GDP Estimate
Our monthly estimates of GDP suggest that output grew by 0.9 per cent in the three months ending in June after growth of 0.7 per cent in the three months ending in May 2014. Our estimates imply that the UK economy is now 3.2 per cent larger than in the same period last year.
Type: GDP Estimate
Our monthly estimates of GDP suggest that output grew by 0.9 per cent in the three months ending in May after growth of 1.1 per cent in the three months ending in April 2014. By this estimate, the level of UK GDP has surpassed its pre-recession peak, and is approximately 0.2 per cent above where it...
Type: GDP Estimate
Our monthly estimates of GDP suggest that output grew by 1.0 per cent in the three months ending in April after growth of 0.8 per cent in the three months ending in March 2014. By this estimate, the UK economy was just 0.17 per cent below its pre-recession peak at the end of April. Subject to data...
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