Publications

Real-Time Probabilistic Nowcasts of UK Quarterly GDP Growth Using a Mixed-Frequency Bottom-Up Approach

Read it here We propose a nowcasting system to obtain real-time predictive intervals for the first-release of UK quarterly GDP growth that can be implemented in a menu-driven econometric software. We design a bottom-up approach: forecasts for GDP components (from the output and the expenditure...

Assessing Long-Run Growth Prospects for the UK’s Regions

Read it here The UK faces a number of economic challenges in the short to medium term. Prior to COVID-19, renegotiation of trading arrangements with the European Union was the most prominent of these. We build on existing macroeconomic analysis by assessing prospects for the UK’s regions generated...

Banking Concentration and Financial Crises

Read it here Policymakers need to know if the structure of competition and the degree of banking market concentration change the incidence of financial crises. Previous studies have not always come to clear conclusions. We use a new dataset of 19 countries where we include capital adequacy and...

Modelling State-Contingent Fiscal Rules in the United Kingdom

Read it here I assess a novel rule that was introduced in the UK in 2015. It gave the British government fiscal flexibility whenever GDP growth warranted it. This rule lasted just a year, but it had features worth exploring. I apply solution methods for models with occasionally-binding constraints...

European Fiscal Rules as a Liability in the Transatlantic Trade Conflict: Lessons from NiGEM Simulations

Read it here Under the Trump administration, a transatlantic trade conflict has been escalating step by step. First, it was about tariffs on steel and aluminium, then about retaliation for the French digital tax, which is suspended until the end of the year. Most recently, the US administration...

The World Economy

Publication date: 2 Nov 2020 | Publication type: National Institute Economic Review | Theme: Macroeconomics | NIESR Author(s): Naisbitt, B, Boshoff, J, Hurst, I, Macchiarelli, C, Mao, X, Sánchez Juanino, P, Thamotheram, C, Whyte, K | Journal: National Institute Economic Review Issue 254 | Publisher: Cambridge University Press

Responding to the threat to public health, lockdowns have led to the deepest contraction in global economic activity since the Second World War, with global GDP in the second quarter 10½ per cent lower than six months earlier. Activity indicators show a rise in global economic activity in the...

Prospects for the UK Economy

The economic contraction resulting from Covid-19 and resultant public health measures has been unprecedented. The public sector has acted as a shock absorber to protect households and businesses, temporarily raising government debt levels, but the recovery has been hampered by uncertainty,...

A Country Withered

Publication date: 29 Oct 2020 | Publication type: National Institute Economic Review | NIESR Author(s): Chadha, J S | Journal: National Institute Economic Review Issue 254 | Publisher: Cambridge University Press

This is the Commentary from the National Institute Economic Review, November 2020, no 254, written by NIESR Director Jagjit Chadha. Please find the full Document in pdf. "Economic progress is a disruptive, dynamic force. Change is as pervasive as it is necessary. Crises not only can drive these...

COVID-19 impacts on destitution in the UK

Publication date: 29 Jul 2020 | Publication type: National Institute Economic Review | NIESR Author(s): Bhattacharjee, A, Lisauskaite, E | JEL Classification: E24; I32; C553; J82; L00; R11 | Journal: National Institute Economic Review Issue 253 | Publisher: Cambridge University Press

We use microsimulation combined with a model of the COVID-19 impacts on individuals and households to obtain projections of households in destitution in the United Kingdom. The projections are estimated at two levels: aggregate quarterly for the UK, for all quarters of 2020; and annual for 2020...

Living with Covid-19: balancing costs against benefits in the face of the virus

Publication date: 29 Jul 2020 | Publication type: National Institute Economic Review | External Author(s): Miles, D, Stedman, M, Heald, A | JEL Classification: I18; D61; E65 | Journal: National Institute Economic Review Issue 253 | Publisher: Cambridge University Press

This paper analyses the costs and benefits of lockdown policies in the face of COVID-19. What matters for people is the quality and length of lives and one should measure costs and benefits in terms of those things. That raises difficulties in measurement, particularly in valuing potential lives...

UK interregional inequality in a historical and international comparative context

Publication date: 29 Jul 2020 | Publication type: National Institute Economic Review | External Author(s): Carrascal-Incera, A, McCann, P, Ortega-Argilés, R, Rodríguez-Pose, A | JEL Classification: R11, R12, O47, O50 | Journal: National Institute Economic Review Issue 253 | Publisher: Cambridge University Press

This paper explores the nature and scale of inter-regional and inter-urban inequalities in the UK in the context of international comparisons and our aim is to identify the extent to which such inequalities are associated with strong national economic performance. In order to do this, we first...

Introduction: The Prospects for Regional Disparities in the UK in Times of Brexit and Covid-19

Publication date: 29 Jul 2020 | Publication type: National Institute Economic Review | NIESR Author(s): Bhattacharjee, A, Nguyen, D, Venables, T | Journal: National Institute Economic Review Issue 253 | Publisher: Cambridge University Press

Regional or spatial inequalities are a concern in most (if not all) countries and with the current ‘levellingup’ agenda they are also a priority of policymakers in the UK. Most often spatial inequalities are analysed as differences in GDP per capita or productivity at some subnational level of...

Regional disparities in labour productivity and the role of capital stock

Publication date: 29 Jul 2020 | Publication type: National Institute Economic Review | Theme: Trade, Investment & Productivity | External Author(s): Gardiner,B; Fingleton, B; Martin, B | JEL Classification: C23, C33, D24, O47, R12 | Journal: National Institute Economic Review Issue 253 | Publisher: Cambridge University Press

This paper reports on the availability of regional capital stock data, in the form of new/updated regional (NUTS2 level) capital stock estimates, building on an approach (Perpetual Inventory Method) which had been previously developed for the European Commission. The particular focus here is on the...

Understanding regional economic performance and resilience in the UK: trends since the global financial crisis

We investigate economic resilience of UK regions before, during and after the 2007/8 global financial crisis. We date business cycle turning points in real output, employment and productivity to assess the resilience dimensions of resistance, recovery and renewal and rank the economic resilience of...

Reconciled estimates and nowcasts of regional output in the UK

Publication date: 29 Jul 2020 | Publication type: National Institute Economic Review | Theme: Trade, Investment & Productivity | NIESR Author(s): Mitchell, J | External Author(s): Koop, G, McIntyre, S, Poon, A | JEL Classification: C11, C53, O4, R1 | Journal: National Institute Economic Review Issue 253 | Publisher: Oxford University Press, Oxford

There is renewed interest in levelling up the regions of the UK. The combination of social and political discontent, and the sluggishness of key UK macroeconomic indicators like productivity growth, has led to increased interest in understanding the regional economies of the UK. In turn, this has...

Prospects for the World Economy

Publication date: 28 Jul 2020 | Publication type: National Institute Economic Review | Theme: Macroeconomics | NIESR Author(s): Naisbitt, B, Boshoff, J, Holland, D, Hurst, I, Kara, A, Macchiarelli, C, Mao, X, Sánchez Juanino, P, Thamotheram, C, Whyte, K

The Covid-19 pandemic and the effects of the measures taken to protect lives continue to dominate the short-term global economic outlook. In still highly uncertain times, there are widespread falls in GDP as lockdowns pause many forms of economic activity. Some countries are now starting to...

Prospects for the UK Economy

The combination of the Covid-19 pandemic and the public health measures taken to limit its spread here and overseas are forecast to contribute to a fall in GDP of 10 per cent in 2020. The level of economic activity in the final quarter of last year is not likely to be regained much before the...

Brexit and impact routes through global value chains

We analyse the trade routes between the UK and EU countries. Our results show that the relative importance of the UK as a trading partner in the EU has slightly decreased. We further decompose the total value added into components that quantify the value added that is generated through direct trade...

The EU’s shrinking share in global manufacturing: a value chain decomposition analysis

The EU´s falling share in global manufacturing has fuelled concerns about an overall loss of EU competitiveness, in particular vis-à-vis China. We analyse the empirical evidence underlying these concerns by applying a newly developed decomposition technique to global input-output data spanning the...

On the relevance of global value chains and the intra-European division of labour

This article first introduces the concept, the rationale, the causes and the genesis of global value chains from a worldwide perspective in the form of a brief overview. In the second empirical section, a closer look is taken at the intermediate trade integration in the EU. In particular, the...

Value chains and domestic competitiveness

Publication date: 29 Apr 2020 | Publication type: National Institute Economic Review | Theme: Macroeconomics | External Author(s): Gasiorek, M, Smith, A, Tamberi, N | JEL Classification: F6, F14, F15, F17; F42 | Journal: National Institute Economic Review Issue 252 | Publisher: Cambridge University Press

With international trade increasingly undertaken within vertically fragmented supply chains, this paper considers the impact of changes in trade costs on domestic output. In the context of the UK’s exit from the EU we show that the negative impact on UK output will depend on changes in both...

Introduction: Global value chains and economic dislocations

The world is undergoing an unprecedented shock as a result of the Covid-19 pandemic and the resulting lockdowns in nearly all economies. As major world economies are being put on hold, millions of jobs and incomes are being lost, which has created an imperative for economic policy actions....

Prospects for the World Economy

Publication date: 28 Apr 2020 | Publication type: National Institute Economic Review | Theme: Macroeconomics | NIESR Author(s): Naisbitt, B, Boshoff, J, Holland, D, Hurst, I, Kara, A, Liadze, I, Macchiarelli, C, Mao, X, Sánchez Juanino, P, Thamotheram, C, Whyte, K | Journal: National Institute Economic Review Issue 252 | Publisher: Cambridge University Press

The effects of the coronavirus pandemic and the control measures taken to combat its spread have changed the short-term global economic outlook in an unprecedented manner from that forecast just three months ago. In these highly uncertain times, we now expect widespread falls in GDP, particularly...

Prospects for the UK Economy

Measures to limit the spread of Covid-19 are causing a severe contraction in economic activity of uncertain magnitude. In our main-case scenario, GDP falls by 7 per cent in 2020 and public sector borrowing rises above £200 billion in 2020–21, over £150 billion more than in the OBR's forecast at...

Commentary - Monetary policy in troubled times

Publication date: 27 Apr 2020 | Publication type: National Institute Economic Review | NIESR Author(s): Chadha, J S | Journal: National Institute Economic Review Issue 252 | Publisher: Cambridge University Press

The Commentary in this Review has touched on the mix of monetary and fiscal policies regularly since the Brexit referendum. The timeless issues relating to the framework for monetary and fiscal policy and their appropriate degree of co-ordination have been exposed by the Covid-19 crisis. We have...

US and UK Labour Markets Before and During the Covid-19 Crash

We examine labour market performance in the US and the UK prior to the onset of the Covid-19 crash. We then track the changes that have occurred in the months and days from the beginning of March 2020 using what we call the Economics of Walking About (EWA) that shows a collapse twenty times faster...

Economic Crisis: Virtual Special Issue

Publication date: 3 Apr 2020 | Publication type: National Institute Economic Review | Theme: Macroeconomics | Journal: National Institute Economic Review Issue Virtual issue | Publisher: Cambridge University Press

Our latest "virtual issue" of our Economic Review focussing on Economic Crisis

Prospects for the UK economy: Forecast Summary

The decisive result of the general election has reduced political uncertainty, but elevated economic uncertainty is likely to persist until the details of the UK’s future trade relationship with the EU are settled. The March Budget is expected to be focused on ‘levelling up’ income levels across...

World overview: Forecast summary

Publication date: 6 Feb 2020 | Publication type: National Institute Economic Review | Theme: Macroeconomics | NIESR Author(s): Naisbitt, B, Boshoff, J, Hurst, I, Kara, A, Lenoel, C, Liadze, I, Mao, X, Thamotheram, C, Whyte, K | Journal: National Institute Economic Review Issue 251 | Publisher: Cambridge University Press

Global economic growth slowed again last year as increases in tariffs and uncertainty about future tariff impositions and their implications for production activity continued to have negative effects on industrial production, especially in the advanced economies, and global trade. With a weaker...

Stranded Assets and Sovereign States

There is evidence that the risk of stranded assets in the oil and gas sector is underpriced in financial markets. Publicly traded Western oil and gas companies are starting to write down assets, opening up the possibility that more rationalisation of value is likely to come. To the extent that...

The Changing Role of Carbon Pricing in the EU

Carbon pricing has been the most prominent climate change mitigation policy for the EU since the launch of its emissions trading system (ETS) in 2005. Since then, the context of international climate policy as well as of the socio-political and economical context of decarbonisation has changed...

India in the Coming ‘Climate G2’?

Publication date: 6 Feb 2020 | Publication type: National Institute Economic Review | External Author(s): Camuzeaux, J, Sterner, T, Wagner, G | JEL Classification: Q5, F5 | Journal: National Institute Economic Review Issue 251 | Publisher: Cambridge University Press

China and the United States are the two largest emitters of greenhouse gases, making them pivotal players in global climate negotiations. Within the coming decade, however, India is set to become the most important counterpart to the United States, as it overtakes China as the country with the most...

Introduction: The Economic Implications of Climate Change Mitigaton Policies

Publication date: 6 Feb 2020 | Publication type: National Institute Economic Review | NIESR Author(s): Holland, D, Young, G | Journal: National Institute Economic Review Issue 251 | Publisher: Cambridge University Press

The articles in this issue of the Review highlight some of the economic issues involved in acting to cut greenhouse gas emissions to a level consistent with the ambition to limit global temperature increases. Together they help explain why progress in tackling this “urgent problem”is likely to be...

Does intellectual property rights protection constitute a barrier to renewable energy? An econometric analysis

Publication date: 6 Feb 2020 | Publication type: National Institute Economic Review | External Author(s): Li, J, Omoju, O E, Zhang, J, Ikhide, E E, Lu, G, Lawal, A I, Ozue, V A | JEL Classification: O34, Q42, Q55, C23 | Journal: National Institute Economic Review Issue 251 | Publisher: Cambridge University Press

This study uses an econometric approach to investigate the role of IPR protection on renewable energy adoption using panel data of 102 countries at five-year intervals over the period 1990–2005. The Ginarte-Park index is used as a measure of the strength of intellectual property protection while...

Is the UK Productivity Slowdown Unprecedented?

Publication date: 6 Feb 2020 | Publication type: National Institute Economic Review | Theme: Trade, Investment & Productivity | External Author(s): Crafts, N, Mills, T C | JEL Classification: C22, N13, N14, O47 | Journal: National Institute Economic Review Issue 251 | Publisher: Cambridge University Press

We estimate trend UK labour productivity growth using a Hodrick-Prescott filter method. We use the results to compare downturns where the economy fell below its pre-existing trend. We find that the current productivity slowdown has resulted in productivity being 19.7 per cent below the pre-2008...

National Institute Economic Review 250th Edition - Table of Contents

Publication date: 30 Oct 2019 | Publication type: National Institute Economic Review | Journal: National Institute Economic Review Issue 250 | Publisher: Sage Publications, London

Forecast Summaries The UK Economy: Forecast Summary The UK Economy Prospects for the UK Economy Arno Hantzsche and Garry Young Forecast Summaries The World Economy: Forecast Summary The UK Economy The Economic Impact of Prime Minister Johnson's New Brexit Deal Arno...

Beyond Brexit: a programme for UK reform

We not only live in interesting times but also dangerous ones. The weaknesses of the post-war consensus on macroeconomic control was laid bare by Dow’s (1964) magisterial analysis and the subsequent implosion of demand management in the 1970s (see Blackaby, 1978; and Britton, 1991). It is becoming...

Introduction to National Institute Economic Review no 250

Publication date: 30 Oct 2019 | Publication type: National Institute Economic Review | Theme: Macroeconomics, Exiting the EU & Britain after Brexit | NIESR Author(s): Bidder, R | External Author(s): Llewellyn, J, Greenstock, J, Jones, R, Gowers, A, Llewellyn, P, Greenstock, N, Holtham, G, Scuoler, T | Journal: National Institute Economic Review Issue 250 | Publisher: Sage Publications, London

Regardless of the particular form that Brexit ultimately takes, the UK faces an unprecedented set of political, economic, and social challenges. While the causes are many and complex, they amount to a crisis of confidence and popular trust that has overturned the normal logic of political practice...

Maintaining stable macroeconomic conditions

Publication date: 30 Oct 2019 | Publication type: National Institute Economic Review | Theme: Macroeconomics, Exiting the EU & Britain after Brexit | External Author(s): Jones, R, Llewellyn, J | Journal: National Institute Economic Review Issue 250 | Publisher: Sage Publications, London

The UK economy faces more than usually uncertain times. Outside the European Union, and in an increasingly challenging global environment characterised by ageing populations, climate change, populism, protectionism, and more, the country needs to chart a new course. This may well require...

Supporting dynamic economic adjustment

Publication date: 30 Oct 2019 | Publication type: National Institute Economic Review | Theme: Macroeconomics, Exiting the EU & Britain after Brexit | External Author(s): Martin, J | Journal: National Institute Economic Review Issue 250 | Publisher: Sage Publications, London

Economic policymaking in the UK has historically focussed more on the demand side than on the supply side of the economy. Yet it is on the supply side – the way in which an economy adapts to change while growing productive capacity on a sustainable basis – that medium- to long-term economic...

Developing trade

Publication date: 30 Oct 2019 | Publication type: National Institute Economic Review | Theme: Macroeconomics, Exiting the EU & Britain after Brexit | External Author(s): Vines, D, Gretton, P, Williamson, A | Journal: National Institute Economic Review Issue 250 | Publisher: Sage Publications, London

The UK faces no easy options in determining how to develop its approach to international trade post-Brexit. If it finally decides to leave the European Customs Union and Single Market, it faces the possibility either of simply crashing out of the EU without a deal; trying to form market-access...

Developing trade in services

Publication date: 30 Oct 2019 | Publication type: National Institute Economic Review | Theme: Macroeconomics, Exiting the EU & Britain after Brexit | External Author(s): Lautenberg, A | Journal: National Institute Economic Review Issue 250 | Publisher: Sage Publications, London

Services are simultaneously the most important sector of the UK economy and the sector facing the biggest challenge as a result of Brexit. The prospective departure from the European Single Market reduces the UK to the status of ‘3rd country’ in respect of services. Accessing the internal market...

Reorienting foreign policy

Publication date: 30 Oct 2019 | Publication type: National Institute Economic Review | Theme: Macroeconomics, Exiting the EU & Britain after Brexit | External Author(s): Greenstock, J | Journal: National Institute Economic Review Issue 250 | Publisher: Sage Publications, London

After Brexit, the UK must show that it has a voice. It will need to re-earn international respect, and in particular establish the concept of a ‘global Britain’ on the basis of performance, not rhetoric. That means re-establishing a strong network of relationships around the world in support of its...

Updating security and defence policy

Publication date: 30 Oct 2019 | Publication type: National Institute Economic Review | Theme: Macroeconomics, Exiting the EU & Britain after Brexit | External Author(s): Grant, M | Journal: National Institute Economic Review Issue 250 | Publisher: Sage Publications, London

Threats to the security of the UK are evolving with the changing nature of conflict and balance of power in the world. They are multiple and fragmented, and domestic and online as well as overseas in nature: principally state-based threats such as posed by Russian activity; terrorism; cyber-attacks...

Formulating industrial policy

Alongside the challenge of maintaining economic competitiveness in the face of great uncertainty, Brexit brings an opportunity for the government to set out a new industrial strategy. The case for doing so rests on the need to address areas of persistent structural weakness in the UK economy,...

Securing decarbonisation and growth

Publication date: 30 Oct 2019 | Publication type: National Institute Economic Review | Theme: Macroeconomics, Exiting the EU & Britain after Brexit | External Author(s): Zenghelis, D | Journal: National Institute Economic Review Issue 250 | Publisher: Sage Publications, London

The need to decarbonise the economy in order to slow the pace of climate change is now recognised as one of the most pressing international policy challenges. While the UK cannot by itself materially affect global climate change, it has an opportunity to play an influential role, both by persuading...

Improving infrastructure

Infrastructure investment can substantially increase a nation’s capital stock and thereby boost productive, or supplyside, potential. It can also be useful as a tool in macroeconomic stabilisation, while public spending on quality infrastructure projects has been shown to have significantly greater...

Redesigning housing policy

Publication date: 30 Oct 2019 | Publication type: National Institute Economic Review | Theme: Macroeconomics, Exiting the EU & Britain after Brexit | NIESR Author(s): Barker, K | Journal: National Institute Economic Review Issue 250 | Publisher: Sage Publications, London

Discussion of the UK’s housing crisis is of long date, and tends to focus on a simple story about a mismatch in housing supply and demand and the consequent need to build more homes. Yet the reality is more complex with multiple sub-plots including social housing, stress in the private rented...

Effective devolution

Publication date: 30 Oct 2019 | Publication type: National Institute Economic Review | Theme: Macroeconomics, Exiting the EU & Britain after Brexit | NIESR Author(s): Armstrong, A | Journal: National Institute Economic Review Issue 250 | Publisher: Sage Publications, London

Brexit creates deep challenges for the UK’s structure of governance; not least concerning the degree and manner in which powers are devolved within one of the most centralised countries in the world. Departing from the EU is likely to exacerbate regional inequalities and possibly social divide,...

Improving governance

Publication date: 30 Oct 2019 | Publication type: National Institute Economic Review | Theme: Macroeconomics, Exiting the EU & Britain after Brexit | External Author(s): Donnelly, M | Journal: National Institute Economic Review Issue 250 | Publisher: Sage Publications, London

Government post-Brexit will face sustained and difficult challenges as the UK adjusts to its new situation. Yet these challenges risk being exacerbated by fundamental changes in UK political debate that are affecting the perceived legitimacy and effectiveness of the system and structures of...

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