Publications
Publication date: 22 Feb 2021
| Publication type: National Institute Economic Review
| Journal: National Institute Economic Review
Issue 255
| Publisher: Cambridge University Press
The country is facing the twin traumas of managing two exits. Exit from the Covid-19 crisis and from the European Union. Of course, much of the world is dealing with the first and the European Union has also had the latter with which to contend. But the United Kingdom is set to lose permanently...
Publication date: 4 Nov 2020
| Publication type: National Institute Economic Review
| Theme: Macroeconomics
| JEL Classification: C53; E32
| Journal: National Institute Economic Review
Issue 254
| Publisher: Cambridge University Press
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We propose a nowcasting system to obtain real-time predictive intervals for the first-release of UK quarterly GDP growth that can be implemented in a menu-driven econometric software. We design a bottom-up approach: forecasts for GDP components (from the output and the expenditure...
Publication date: 4 Nov 2020
| Publication type: National Institute Economic Review
| Theme: Macroeconomics
| JEL Classification: E27; E37; O11; R11
| Journal: National Institute Economic Review
Issue 254
| Publisher: Cambridge University Press
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The UK faces a number of economic challenges in the short to medium term. Prior to COVID-19, renegotiation of trading arrangements with the European Union was the most prominent of these. We build on existing macroeconomic analysis by assessing prospects for the UK’s regions generated...
Publication date: 4 Nov 2020
| Publication type: National Institute Economic Review
| Theme: Macroeconomics
| JEL Classification: E44; G01; G18
| Journal: National Institute Economic Review
Issue 254
| Publisher: Cambridge University Press
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Policymakers need to know if the structure of competition and the degree of banking market concentration change the incidence of financial crises. Previous studies have not always come to clear conclusions. We use a new dataset of 19 countries where we include capital adequacy and...
Publication date: 4 Nov 2020
| Publication type: National Institute Economic Review
| Theme: Macroeconomics
| JEL Classification: E62; E63; E37
| Journal: National Institute Economic Review
Issue 254
| Publisher: Cambridge University Press
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I assess a novel rule that was introduced in the UK in 2015. It gave the British government fiscal flexibility whenever GDP growth warranted it. This rule lasted just a year, but it had features worth exploring. I apply solution methods for models with occasionally-binding constraints...
Publication date: 3 Nov 2020
| Publication type: National Institute Economic Review
| Theme: Macroeconomics
| JEL Classification: E17; F17
| Journal: National Institute Economic Review
Issue 254
| Publisher: Cambridge University Press
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Under the Trump administration, a transatlantic trade conflict has been escalating step by step. First, it was about tariffs on steel and aluminium, then about retaliation for the French digital tax, which is suspended until the end of the year. Most recently, the US administration...
Publication date: 2 Nov 2020
| Publication type: National Institute Economic Review
| Theme: Macroeconomics
| Journal: National Institute Economic Review
Issue 254
| Publisher: Cambridge University Press
Responding to the threat to public health, lockdowns have led to the deepest contraction in global economic activity since the Second World War, with global GDP in the second quarter 10½ per cent lower than six months earlier.
Activity indicators show a rise in global economic activity in the...
Publication date: 2 Nov 2020
| Publication type: National Institute Economic Review
| Theme: Macroeconomics
| Journal: National Institute Economic Review
Issue 254
| Publisher: Cambridge University Press
The economic contraction resulting from Covid-19 and resultant public health measures has been unprecedented. The public sector has acted as a shock absorber to protect households and businesses, temporarily raising government debt levels, but the recovery has been hampered by uncertainty,...
Publication date: 29 Oct 2020
| Publication type: National Institute Economic Review
| Journal: National Institute Economic Review
Issue 254
| Publisher: Cambridge University Press
This is the Commentary from the National Institute Economic Review, November 2020, no 254, written by NIESR Director Jagjit Chadha. Please find the full Document in pdf.
"Economic progress is a disruptive, dynamic force. Change is as pervasive as it is necessary. Crises not only can drive these...
Publication date: 29 Jul 2020
| Publication type: National Institute Economic Review
| JEL Classification: I18; D61; E65
| Journal: National Institute Economic Review
Issue 253
| Publisher: Cambridge University Press
This paper analyses the costs and benefits of lockdown policies in the face of COVID-19. What matters for people is the quality and length of lives and one should measure costs and benefits in terms of those things. That raises difficulties in measurement, particularly in valuing potential lives...
Publication date: 29 Jul 2020
| Publication type: National Institute Economic Review
| JEL Classification: R11, R12, O47, O50
| Journal: National Institute Economic Review
Issue 253
| Publisher: Cambridge University Press
This paper explores the nature and scale of inter-regional and inter-urban inequalities in the UK in the context of international comparisons and our aim is to identify the extent to which such inequalities are associated with strong national economic performance. In order to do this, we first...
Publication date: 29 Jul 2020
| Publication type: National Institute Economic Review
| Journal: National Institute Economic Review
Issue 253
| Publisher: Cambridge University Press
Regional or spatial inequalities are a concern in most (if not all) countries and with the current ‘levellingup’ agenda they are also a priority of policymakers in the UK. Most often spatial inequalities are analysed as differences in GDP per capita or productivity at some subnational level of...
Publication date: 29 Jul 2020
| Publication type: National Institute Economic Review
| Theme: Trade, Investment & Productivity
| JEL Classification: C23, C33, D24, O47, R12
| Journal: National Institute Economic Review
Issue 253
| Publisher: Cambridge University Press
This paper reports on the availability of regional capital stock data, in the form of new/updated regional (NUTS2 level) capital stock estimates, building on an approach (Perpetual Inventory Method) which had been previously developed for the European Commission. The particular focus here is on the...
Publication date: 29 Jul 2020
| Publication type: National Institute Economic Review
| Theme: Trade, Investment & Productivity
| JEL Classification: C22, E32
| Journal: National Institute Economic Review
Issue 253
| Publisher: Cambridge University Press
We investigate economic resilience of UK regions before, during and after the 2007/8 global financial crisis. We date business cycle turning points in real output, employment and productivity to assess the resilience dimensions of resistance, recovery and renewal and rank the economic resilience of...
Publication date: 29 Jul 2020
| Publication type: National Institute Economic Review
| Theme: Trade, Investment & Productivity
| JEL Classification: C11, C53, O4, R1
| Journal: National Institute Economic Review
Issue 253
| Publisher: Cambridge University Press
There is renewed interest in levelling up the regions of the UK. The combination of social and political discontent, and the sluggishness of key UK macroeconomic indicators like productivity growth, has led to increased interest in understanding the regional economies of the UK. In turn, this has...
Publication date: 29 Jul 2020
| Publication type: National Institute Economic Review
| JEL Classification: E24; I32; C553; J82; L00; R11
| Journal: National Institute Economic Review
Issue 253
| Publisher: Cambridge University Press
We use microsimulation combined with a model of the COVID-19 impacts on individuals and households to obtain projections of households in destitution in the United Kingdom. The projections are estimated at two levels: aggregate quarterly for the UK, for all quarters of 2020; and annual for 2020...
Publication date: 28 Jul 2020
| Publication type: National Institute Economic Review
| Theme: Macroeconomics
| Journal: National Institute Economic Review
Issue 253
| Publisher: Cambridge University Press
The combination of the Covid-19 pandemic and the public health measures taken to limit its spread here and overseas are forecast to contribute to a fall in GDP of 10 per cent in 2020. The level of economic activity in the final quarter of last year is not likely to be regained much before the...
Publication date: 28 Jul 2020
| Publication type: National Institute Economic Review
| Theme: Macroeconomics
| Publisher: Cambridge University Press
The Covid-19 pandemic and the effects of the measures taken to protect lives continue to dominate the short-term global economic outlook.
In still highly uncertain times, there are widespread falls in GDP as lockdowns pause many forms of economic activity. Some countries are now starting to...
Publication date: 30 Apr 2020
| Publication type: National Institute Economic Review
| Theme: Macroeconomics
| JEL Classification: F13, F14, F23, L23
| Journal: National Institute Economic Review
Issue 252
| Publisher: Cambridge University Press
We analyse the trade routes between the UK and EU countries. Our results show that the relative importance of the UK as a trading partner in the EU has slightly decreased. We further decompose the total value added into components that quantify the value added that is generated through direct trade...
Publication date: 30 Apr 2020
| Publication type: National Institute Economic Review
| Theme: Macroeconomics
| JEL Classification: F14, L16, L60
| Journal: National Institute Economic Review
Issue 252
| Publisher: Cambridge University Press
The EU´s falling share in global manufacturing has fuelled concerns about an overall loss of EU competitiveness, in particular vis-à-vis China. We analyse the empirical evidence underlying these concerns by applying a newly developed decomposition technique to global input-output data spanning the...
Publication date: 30 Apr 2020
| Publication type: National Institute Economic Review
| Theme: Macroeconomics
| JEL Classification: F14, F15, N14
| Journal: National Institute Economic Review
Issue 252
| Publisher: Cambridge University Press
This article first introduces the concept, the rationale, the causes and the genesis of global value chains from a worldwide perspective in the form of a brief overview. In the second empirical section, a closer look is taken at the intermediate trade integration in the EU. In particular, the...
Publication date: 29 Apr 2020
| Publication type: National Institute Economic Review
| Theme: Macroeconomics
| JEL Classification: F6, F14, F15, F17; F42
| Journal: National Institute Economic Review
Issue 252
| Publisher: Cambridge University Press
With international trade increasingly undertaken within vertically fragmented supply chains, this paper considers the impact of changes in trade costs on domestic output. In the context of the UK’s exit from the EU we show that the negative impact on UK output will depend on changes in both...
Publication date: 29 Apr 2020
| Publication type: National Institute Economic Review
| Theme: Macroeconomics
| Journal: National Institute Economic Review
Issue 252
| Publisher: Cambridge University Press
The world is undergoing an unprecedented shock as a result of the Covid-19 pandemic and the resulting lockdowns in nearly all economies. As major world economies are being put on hold, millions of jobs and incomes are being lost, which has created an imperative for economic policy actions....
Publication date: 28 Apr 2020
| Publication type: National Institute Economic Review
| Theme: Macroeconomics
| Journal: National Institute Economic Review
Issue 252
| Publisher: Cambridge University Press
The effects of the coronavirus pandemic and the control measures taken to combat its spread have changed the short-term global economic outlook in an unprecedented manner from that forecast just three months ago.
In these highly uncertain times, we now expect widespread falls in GDP, particularly...
Publication date: 28 Apr 2020
| Publication type: National Institute Economic Review
| Theme: Macroeconomics
| Journal: National Institute Economic Review
Issue 252
| Publisher: Cambridge University Press
Measures to limit the spread of Covid-19 are causing a severe contraction in economic activity of uncertain magnitude. In our main-case scenario, GDP falls by 7 per cent in 2020 and public sector borrowing rises above £200 billion in 2020–21, over £150 billion more than in the OBR's forecast at...
Publication date: 27 Apr 2020
| Publication type: National Institute Economic Review
| Journal: National Institute Economic Review
Issue 252
| Publisher: Cambridge University Press
The Commentary in this Review has touched on the mix of monetary and fiscal policies regularly since the Brexit referendum. The timeless issues relating to the framework for monetary and fiscal policy and their appropriate degree of co-ordination have been exposed by the Covid-19 crisis. We have...
Publication date: 23 Apr 2020
| Publication type: National Institute Economic Review
| JEL Classification: J31, J60, J61
| Journal: National Institute Economic Review
Issue 252
| Publisher: Cambridge University Press
We examine labour market performance in the US and the UK prior to the onset of the Covid-19 crash. We then track the changes that have occurred in the months and days from the beginning of March 2020 using what we call the Economics of Walking About (EWA) that shows a collapse twenty times faster...
Publication date: 3 Apr 2020
| Publication type: National Institute Economic Review
| Theme: Macroeconomics
| Journal: National Institute Economic Review Issue Virtual issue
| Publisher: Cambridge University Press
Our latest "virtual issue" of our Economic Review focussing on Economic Crisis
Publication date: 6 Feb 2020
| Publication type: National Institute Economic Review
| Theme: Macroeconomics
| Journal: National Institute Economic Review
Issue 251
| Publisher: Cambridge University Press
The decisive result of the general election has reduced political uncertainty, but elevated economic uncertainty is likely to persist until the details of the UK’s future trade relationship with the EU are settled.
The March Budget is expected to be focused on ‘levelling up’ income levels across...
Publication date: 6 Feb 2020
| Publication type: National Institute Economic Review
| Theme: Macroeconomics
| Journal: National Institute Economic Review
Issue 251
| Publisher: Cambridge University Press
Global economic growth slowed again last year as increases in tariffs and uncertainty about future tariff impositions and their implications for production activity continued to have negative effects on industrial production, especially in the advanced economies, and global trade.
With a weaker...
Publication date: 6 Feb 2020
| Publication type: National Institute Economic Review
| JEL Classification: Q35, Q55, L1
| Journal: National Institute Economic Review
Issue 251
| Publisher: Cambridge University Press
There is evidence that the risk of stranded assets in the oil and gas sector is underpriced in financial markets. Publicly traded Western oil and gas companies are starting to write down assets, opening up the possibility that more rationalisation of value is likely to come. To the extent that...
Publication date: 6 Feb 2020
| Publication type: National Institute Economic Review
| JEL Classification: P48, Q54, Q58, L52, F53
| Journal: National Institute Economic Review
Issue 251
| Publisher: Cambridge University Press
Carbon pricing has been the most prominent climate change mitigation policy for the EU since the launch of its emissions trading system (ETS) in 2005. Since then, the context of international climate policy as well as of the socio-political and economical context of decarbonisation has changed...
Publication date: 6 Feb 2020
| Publication type: National Institute Economic Review
| JEL Classification: Q5, F5
| Journal: National Institute Economic Review
Issue 251
| Publisher: Cambridge University Press
China and the United States are the two largest emitters of greenhouse gases, making them pivotal players in global climate negotiations. Within the coming decade, however, India is set to become the most important counterpart to the United States, as it overtakes China as the country with the most...
Publication date: 6 Feb 2020
| Publication type: National Institute Economic Review
| Journal: National Institute Economic Review
Issue 251
| Publisher: Cambridge University Press
The articles in this issue of the Review highlight some of the economic issues involved in acting to cut greenhouse gas emissions to a level consistent with the ambition to limit global temperature increases. Together they help explain why progress in tackling this “urgent problem”is likely to be...
Publication date: 6 Feb 2020
| Publication type: National Institute Economic Review
| JEL Classification: O34, Q42, Q55, C23
| Journal: National Institute Economic Review
Issue 251
| Publisher: Cambridge University Press
This study uses an econometric approach to investigate the role of IPR protection on renewable energy adoption using panel data of 102 countries at five-year intervals over the period 1990–2005. The Ginarte-Park index is used as a measure of the strength of intellectual property protection while...
Publication date: 6 Feb 2020
| Publication type: National Institute Economic Review
| Theme: Trade, Investment & Productivity
| JEL Classification: C22, N13, N14, O47
| Journal: National Institute Economic Review
Issue 251
| Publisher: Cambridge University Press
We estimate trend UK labour productivity growth using a Hodrick-Prescott filter method. We use the results to compare downturns where the economy fell below its pre-existing trend. We find that the current productivity slowdown has resulted in productivity being 19.7 per cent below the pre-2008...
Publication date: 30 Oct 2019
| Publication type: National Institute Economic Review
| Journal: National Institute Economic Review
Issue 250
| Publisher: Sage Publications, London
Forecast Summaries
The UK Economy: Forecast Summary
The UK Economy
Prospects for the UK Economy Arno Hantzsche and Garry Young
Forecast Summaries
The World Economy: Forecast Summary
The UK Economy
The Economic Impact of Prime Minister Johnson's New Brexit Deal Arno...
Publication date: 30 Oct 2019
| Publication type: National Institute Economic Review
| Theme: Macroeconomics
| Journal: National Institute Economic Review
Issue 250
| Publisher: Sage Publications, London
We not only live in interesting times but also dangerous ones. The weaknesses of the post-war consensus on macroeconomic control was laid bare by Dow’s (1964) magisterial analysis and the subsequent implosion of demand management in the 1970s (see Blackaby, 1978; and Britton, 1991). It is becoming...
Publication date: 30 Oct 2019
| Publication type: National Institute Economic Review
| Theme: Macroeconomics, Exiting the EU & Britain after Brexit
| Journal: National Institute Economic Review
Issue 250
| Publisher: Sage Publications, London
Regardless of the particular form that Brexit ultimately takes, the UK faces an unprecedented set of political, economic, and social challenges. While the causes are many and complex, they amount to a crisis of confidence and popular trust that has overturned the normal logic of political practice...
Publication date: 30 Oct 2019
| Publication type: National Institute Economic Review
| Theme: Macroeconomics, Exiting the EU & Britain after Brexit
| Journal: National Institute Economic Review
Issue 250
| Publisher: Sage Publications, London
The UK economy faces more than usually uncertain times. Outside the European Union, and in an increasingly challenging global environment characterised by ageing populations, climate change, populism, protectionism, and more, the country needs to chart a new course. This may well require...
Publication date: 30 Oct 2019
| Publication type: National Institute Economic Review
| Theme: Macroeconomics, Exiting the EU & Britain after Brexit
| Journal: National Institute Economic Review
Issue 250
| Publisher: Sage Publications, London
Economic policymaking in the UK has historically focussed more on the demand side than on the supply side of the economy. Yet it is on the supply side – the way in which an economy adapts to change while growing productive capacity on a sustainable basis – that medium- to long-term economic...
Publication date: 30 Oct 2019
| Publication type: National Institute Economic Review
| Theme: Macroeconomics, Exiting the EU & Britain after Brexit
| Journal: National Institute Economic Review
Issue 250
| Publisher: Sage Publications, London
The UK faces no easy options in determining how to develop its approach to international trade post-Brexit. If it finally decides to leave the European Customs Union and Single Market, it faces the possibility either of simply crashing out of the EU without a deal; trying to form market-access...
Publication date: 30 Oct 2019
| Publication type: National Institute Economic Review
| Theme: Macroeconomics, Exiting the EU & Britain after Brexit
| Journal: National Institute Economic Review
Issue 250
| Publisher: Sage Publications, London
Services are simultaneously the most important sector of the UK economy and the sector facing the biggest challenge as a result of Brexit. The prospective departure from the European Single Market reduces the UK to the status of ‘3rd country’ in respect of services. Accessing the internal market...
Publication date: 30 Oct 2019
| Publication type: National Institute Economic Review
| Theme: Macroeconomics, Exiting the EU & Britain after Brexit
| Journal: National Institute Economic Review
Issue 250
| Publisher: Sage Publications, London
After Brexit, the UK must show that it has a voice. It will need to re-earn international respect, and in particular establish the concept of a ‘global Britain’ on the basis of performance, not rhetoric. That means re-establishing a strong network of relationships around the world in support of its...
Publication date: 30 Oct 2019
| Publication type: National Institute Economic Review
| Theme: Macroeconomics, Exiting the EU & Britain after Brexit
| Journal: National Institute Economic Review
Issue 250
| Publisher: Sage Publications, London
Threats to the security of the UK are evolving with the changing nature of conflict and balance of power in the world. They are multiple and fragmented, and domestic and online as well as overseas in nature: principally state-based threats such as posed by Russian activity; terrorism; cyber-attacks...
Publication date: 30 Oct 2019
| Publication type: National Institute Economic Review
| Theme: Macroeconomics, Exiting the EU & Britain after Brexit
| Journal: National Institute Economic Review
Issue 250
| Publisher: Sage Publications, London
Alongside the challenge of maintaining economic competitiveness in the face of great uncertainty, Brexit brings an opportunity for the government to set out a new industrial strategy. The case for doing so rests on the need to address areas of persistent structural weakness in the UK economy,...
Publication date: 30 Oct 2019
| Publication type: National Institute Economic Review
| Theme: Macroeconomics, Exiting the EU & Britain after Brexit
| Journal: National Institute Economic Review
Issue 250
| Publisher: Sage Publications, London
The need to decarbonise the economy in order to slow the pace of climate change is now recognised as one of the most pressing international policy challenges. While the UK cannot by itself materially affect global climate change, it has an opportunity to play an influential role, both by persuading...
Publication date: 30 Oct 2019
| Publication type: National Institute Economic Review
| Theme: Macroeconomics, Exiting the EU & Britain after Brexit
| Journal: National Institute Economic Review
Issue 250
| Publisher: Sage Publications, London
Infrastructure investment can substantially increase a nation’s capital stock and thereby boost productive, or supplyside, potential. It can also be useful as a tool in macroeconomic stabilisation, while public spending on quality infrastructure projects has been shown to have significantly greater...
Publication date: 30 Oct 2019
| Publication type: National Institute Economic Review
| Theme: Macroeconomics, Exiting the EU & Britain after Brexit
| Journal: National Institute Economic Review
Issue 250
| Publisher: Sage Publications, London
Discussion of the UK’s housing crisis is of long date, and tends to focus on a simple story about a mismatch in housing supply and demand and the consequent need to build more homes. Yet the reality is more complex with multiple sub-plots including social housing, stress in the private rented...
Publication date: 30 Oct 2019
| Publication type: National Institute Economic Review
| Theme: Macroeconomics, Exiting the EU & Britain after Brexit
| Journal: National Institute Economic Review
Issue 250
| Publisher: Sage Publications, London
Brexit creates deep challenges for the UK’s structure of governance; not least concerning the degree and manner in which powers are devolved within one of the most centralised countries in the world. Departing from the EU is likely to exacerbate regional inequalities and possibly social divide,...
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