Publications

Brexit and impact routes through global value chains

We analyse the trade routes between the UK and EU countries. Our results show that the relative importance of the UK as a trading partner in the EU has slightly decreased. We further decompose the total value added into components that quantify the value added that is generated through direct trade...

The EU’s shrinking share in global manufacturing: a value chain decomposition analysis

The EU´s falling share in global manufacturing has fuelled concerns about an overall loss of EU competitiveness, in particular vis-à-vis China. We analyse the empirical evidence underlying these concerns by applying a newly developed decomposition technique to global input-output data spanning the...

On the relevance of global value chains and the intra-European division of labour

This article first introduces the concept, the rationale, the causes and the genesis of global value chains from a worldwide perspective in the form of a brief overview. In the second empirical section, a closer look is taken at the intermediate trade integration in the EU. In particular, the...

Value chains and domestic competitiveness

Publication date: 29 Apr 2020 | Publication type: National Institute Economic Review | Theme: Macroeconomics | External Author(s): Gasiorek, M, Smith, A, Tamberi, N | JEL Classification: F6, F14, F15, F17; F42 | Journal: National Institute Economic Review Issue 252 | Publisher: Cambridge University Press

With international trade increasingly undertaken within vertically fragmented supply chains, this paper considers the impact of changes in trade costs on domestic output. In the context of the UK’s exit from the EU we show that the negative impact on UK output will depend on changes in both...

Introduction: Global value chains and economic dislocations

The world is undergoing an unprecedented shock as a result of the Covid-19 pandemic and the resulting lockdowns in nearly all economies. As major world economies are being put on hold, millions of jobs and incomes are being lost, which has created an imperative for economic policy actions....

Prospects for the World Economy

Publication date: 28 Apr 2020 | Publication type: National Institute Economic Review | Theme: Macroeconomics | NIESR Author(s): Naisbitt, B, Boshoff, J, Holland, D, Hurst, I, Kara, A, Liadze, I, Macchiarelli, C, Mao, X, Sánchez Juanino, P, Thamotheram, C, Whyte, K | Journal: National Institute Economic Review Issue 252 | Publisher: Cambridge University Press

The effects of the coronavirus pandemic and the control measures taken to combat its spread have changed the short-term global economic outlook in an unprecedented manner from that forecast just three months ago. In these highly uncertain times, we now expect widespread falls in GDP, particularly...

Prospects for the UK Economy

Measures to limit the spread of Covid-19 are causing a severe contraction in economic activity of uncertain magnitude. In our main-case scenario, GDP falls by 7 per cent in 2020 and public sector borrowing rises above £200 billion in 2020–21, over £150 billion more than in the OBR's forecast at...

Commentary - Monetary policy in troubled times

Publication date: 27 Apr 2020 | Publication type: National Institute Economic Review | NIESR Author(s): Chadha, J S | Journal: National Institute Economic Review Issue 252 | Publisher: Cambridge University Press

The Commentary in this Review has touched on the mix of monetary and fiscal policies regularly since the Brexit referendum. The timeless issues relating to the framework for monetary and fiscal policy and their appropriate degree of co-ordination have been exposed by the Covid-19 crisis. We have...

US and UK Labour Markets Before and During the Covid-19 Crash

We examine labour market performance in the US and the UK prior to the onset of the Covid-19 crash. We then track the changes that have occurred in the months and days from the beginning of March 2020 using what we call the Economics of Walking About (EWA) that shows a collapse twenty times faster...

Economic Crisis: Virtual Special Issue

Publication date: 3 Apr 2020 | Publication type: National Institute Economic Review | Theme: Macroeconomics | Journal: National Institute Economic Review Issue Virtual issue | Publisher: Cambridge University Press

Our latest "virtual issue" of our Economic Review focussing on Economic Crisis

Prospects for the UK economy: Forecast Summary

The decisive result of the general election has reduced political uncertainty, but elevated economic uncertainty is likely to persist until the details of the UK’s future trade relationship with the EU are settled. The March Budget is expected to be focused on ‘levelling up’ income levels across...

World overview: Forecast summary

Publication date: 6 Feb 2020 | Publication type: National Institute Economic Review | Theme: Macroeconomics | NIESR Author(s): Naisbitt, B, Boshoff, J, Hurst, I, Kara, A, Lenoel, C, Liadze, I, Mao, X, Thamotheram, C, Whyte, K | Journal: National Institute Economic Review Issue 251 | Publisher: Cambridge University Press

Global economic growth slowed again last year as increases in tariffs and uncertainty about future tariff impositions and their implications for production activity continued to have negative effects on industrial production, especially in the advanced economies, and global trade. With a weaker...

Stranded Assets and Sovereign States

There is evidence that the risk of stranded assets in the oil and gas sector is underpriced in financial markets. Publicly traded Western oil and gas companies are starting to write down assets, opening up the possibility that more rationalisation of value is likely to come. To the extent that...

The Changing Role of Carbon Pricing in the EU

Carbon pricing has been the most prominent climate change mitigation policy for the EU since the launch of its emissions trading system (ETS) in 2005. Since then, the context of international climate policy as well as of the socio-political and economical context of decarbonisation has changed...

India in the Coming ‘Climate G2’?

Publication date: 6 Feb 2020 | Publication type: National Institute Economic Review | External Author(s): Camuzeaux, J, Sterner, T, Wagner, G | JEL Classification: Q5, F5 | Journal: National Institute Economic Review Issue 251 | Publisher: Cambridge University Press

China and the United States are the two largest emitters of greenhouse gases, making them pivotal players in global climate negotiations. Within the coming decade, however, India is set to become the most important counterpart to the United States, as it overtakes China as the country with the most...

Introduction: The Economic Implications of Climate Change Mitigaton Policies

Publication date: 6 Feb 2020 | Publication type: National Institute Economic Review | NIESR Author(s): Holland, D, Young, G | Journal: National Institute Economic Review Issue 251 | Publisher: Cambridge University Press

The articles in this issue of the Review highlight some of the economic issues involved in acting to cut greenhouse gas emissions to a level consistent with the ambition to limit global temperature increases. Together they help explain why progress in tackling this “urgent problem”is likely to be...

Does intellectual property rights protection constitute a barrier to renewable energy? An econometric analysis

Publication date: 6 Feb 2020 | Publication type: National Institute Economic Review | External Author(s): Li, J, Omoju, O E, Zhang, J, Ikhide, E E, Lu, G, Lawal, A I, Ozue, V A | JEL Classification: O34, Q42, Q55, C23 | Journal: National Institute Economic Review Issue 251 | Publisher: Cambridge University Press

This study uses an econometric approach to investigate the role of IPR protection on renewable energy adoption using panel data of 102 countries at five-year intervals over the period 1990–2005. The Ginarte-Park index is used as a measure of the strength of intellectual property protection while...

Is the UK Productivity Slowdown Unprecedented?

Publication date: 6 Feb 2020 | Publication type: National Institute Economic Review | External Author(s): Crafts, N, Mills, T C | JEL Classification: C22, N13, N14, O47 | Journal: National Institute Economic Review Issue 251 | Publisher: Cambridge University Press

We estimate trend UK labour productivity growth using a Hodrick-Prescott filter method. We use the results to compare downturns where the economy fell below its pre-existing trend. We find that the current productivity slowdown has resulted in productivity being 19.7 per cent below the pre-2008...

National Institute Economic Review 250th Edition - Table of Contents

Publication date: 30 Oct 2019 | Publication type: National Institute Economic Review | Journal: National Institute Economic Review Issue 250 | Publisher: Sage Publications, London

Forecast SummariesThe UK Economy: Forecast Summary The UK EconomyProspects for the UK Economy Arno Hantzsche and Garry Young Forecast SummariesThe World Economy: Forecast Summary The UK EconomyThe Economic Impact of Prime Minister Johnson's New Brexit Deal Arno Hantzsche and Garry Young The World...

Beyond Brexit: a programme for UK reform

We not only live in interesting times but also dangerous ones. The weaknesses of the post-war consensus on macroeconomic control was laid bare by Dow’s (1964) magisterial analysis and the subsequent implosion of demand management in the 1970s (see Blackaby, 1978; and Britton, 1991). It is becoming...

Introduction to National Institute Economic Review no 250

Publication date: 30 Oct 2019 | Publication type: National Institute Economic Review | Theme: Macroeconomics, Exiting the EU & Britain after Brexit | NIESR Author(s): Bidder, R | External Author(s): Llewellyn, J, Greenstock, J, Jones, R, Gowers, A, Llewellyn, P, Greenstock, N, Holtham, G, Scuoler, T | Journal: National Institute Economic Review Issue 250 | Publisher: Sage Publications, London

Regardless of the particular form that Brexit ultimately takes, the UK faces an unprecedented set of political, economic, and social challenges. While the causes are many and complex, they amount to a crisis of confidence and popular trust that has overturned the normal logic of political practice...

Maintaining stable macroeconomic conditions

Publication date: 30 Oct 2019 | Publication type: National Institute Economic Review | Theme: Macroeconomics, Exiting the EU & Britain after Brexit | External Author(s): Jones, R, Llewellyn, J | Journal: National Institute Economic Review Issue 250 | Publisher: Sage Publications, London

The UK economy faces more than usually uncertain times. Outside the European Union, and in an increasingly challenging global environment characterised by ageing populations, climate change, populism, protectionism, and more, the country needs to chart a new course. This may well require...

Supporting dynamic economic adjustment

Publication date: 30 Oct 2019 | Publication type: National Institute Economic Review | Theme: Macroeconomics, Exiting the EU & Britain after Brexit | External Author(s): Martin, J | Journal: National Institute Economic Review Issue 250 | Publisher: Sage Publications, London

Economic policymaking in the UK has historically focussed more on the demand side than on the supply side of the economy. Yet it is on the supply side – the way in which an economy adapts to change while growing productive capacity on a sustainable basis – that medium- to long-term economic...

Developing trade

Publication date: 30 Oct 2019 | Publication type: National Institute Economic Review | Theme: Macroeconomics, Exiting the EU & Britain after Brexit | External Author(s): Vines, D, Gretton, P, Williamson, A | Journal: National Institute Economic Review Issue 250 | Publisher: Sage Publications, London

The UK faces no easy options in determining how to develop its approach to international trade post-Brexit. If it finally decides to leave the European Customs Union and Single Market, it faces the possibility either of simply crashing out of the EU without a deal; trying to form market-access...

Developing trade in services

Publication date: 30 Oct 2019 | Publication type: National Institute Economic Review | Theme: Macroeconomics, Exiting the EU & Britain after Brexit | External Author(s): Lautenberg, A | Journal: National Institute Economic Review Issue 250 | Publisher: Sage Publications, London

Services are simultaneously the most important sector of the UK economy and the sector facing the biggest challenge as a result of Brexit. The prospective departure from the European Single Market reduces the UK to the status of ‘3rd country’ in respect of services. Accessing the internal market...

Reorienting foreign policy

Publication date: 30 Oct 2019 | Publication type: National Institute Economic Review | Theme: Macroeconomics, Exiting the EU & Britain after Brexit | External Author(s): Greenstock, J | Journal: National Institute Economic Review Issue 250 | Publisher: Sage Publications, London

After Brexit, the UK must show that it has a voice. It will need to re-earn international respect, and in particular establish the concept of a ‘global Britain’ on the basis of performance, not rhetoric. That means re-establishing a strong network of relationships around the world in support of its...

Updating security and defence policy

Publication date: 30 Oct 2019 | Publication type: National Institute Economic Review | Theme: Macroeconomics, Exiting the EU & Britain after Brexit | External Author(s): Grant, M | Journal: National Institute Economic Review Issue 250 | Publisher: Sage Publications, London

Threats to the security of the UK are evolving with the changing nature of conflict and balance of power in the world. They are multiple and fragmented, and domestic and online as well as overseas in nature: principally state-based threats such as posed by Russian activity; terrorism; cyber-attacks...

Formulating industrial policy

Alongside the challenge of maintaining economic competitiveness in the face of great uncertainty, Brexit brings an opportunity for the government to set out a new industrial strategy. The case for doing so rests on the need to address areas of persistent structural weakness in the UK economy,...

Securing decarbonisation and growth

Publication date: 30 Oct 2019 | Publication type: National Institute Economic Review | Theme: Macroeconomics, Exiting the EU & Britain after Brexit | External Author(s): Zenghelis, D | Journal: National Institute Economic Review Issue 250 | Publisher: Sage Publications, London

The need to decarbonise the economy in order to slow the pace of climate change is now recognised as one of the most pressing international policy challenges. While the UK cannot by itself materially affect global climate change, it has an opportunity to play an influential role, both by persuading...

Improving infrastructure

Infrastructure investment can substantially increase a nation’s capital stock and thereby boost productive, or supplyside, potential. It can also be useful as a tool in macroeconomic stabilisation, while public spending on quality infrastructure projects has been shown to have significantly greater...

Redesigning housing policy

Publication date: 30 Oct 2019 | Publication type: National Institute Economic Review | Theme: Macroeconomics, Exiting the EU & Britain after Brexit | NIESR Author(s): Barker, K | Journal: National Institute Economic Review Issue 250 | Publisher: Sage Publications, London

Discussion of the UK’s housing crisis is of long date, and tends to focus on a simple story about a mismatch in housing supply and demand and the consequent need to build more homes. Yet the reality is more complex with multiple sub-plots including social housing, stress in the private rented...

Effective devolution

Publication date: 30 Oct 2019 | Publication type: National Institute Economic Review | Theme: Macroeconomics, Exiting the EU & Britain after Brexit | NIESR Author(s): Armstrong, A | Journal: National Institute Economic Review Issue 250 | Publisher: Sage Publications, London

Brexit creates deep challenges for the UK’s structure of governance; not least concerning the degree and manner in which powers are devolved within one of the most centralised countries in the world. Departing from the EU is likely to exacerbate regional inequalities and possibly social divide,...

Improving governance

Publication date: 30 Oct 2019 | Publication type: National Institute Economic Review | Theme: Macroeconomics, Exiting the EU & Britain after Brexit | External Author(s): Donnelly, M | Journal: National Institute Economic Review Issue 250 | Publisher: Sage Publications, London

Government post-Brexit will face sustained and difficult challenges as the UK adjusts to its new situation. Yet these challenges risk being exacerbated by fundamental changes in UK political debate that are affecting the perceived legitimacy and effectiveness of the system and structures of...

Reducing inequalities

A backlash against numerous inequalities – and in particular against perceived unfairness in society – is a significant driver of the UK’s current political malaise. Addressing inequalities between income groups, regions and generations will thus be key to re-establishing faith in government and...

The economic impact of Prime Minister Johnson's New Brexit Deal

Publication date: 30 Oct 2019 | Publication type: National Institute Economic Review | Theme: Macroeconomics, Exiting the EU & Britain after Brexit | NIESR Author(s): Hantzsche, A, Young, G | Journal: National Institute Economic Review Issue 250 | Publisher: Sage Publications, London

On 17 October 2019, the UK government and its EU counterparts concluded a renegotiation of the previous withdrawal agreement and political declaration which sets out the framework for their future relationship. The government hoped that this would enable the UK to leave the EU on 31 October 2019...

Prospects for the UK economy: Forecast Summary

The economic outlook is clouded by significant economic and political uncertainty and depends critically on the United Kingdom’s trading relationships after Brexit. Domestic economic weakness is further amplified by slowing global demand. We would not expect economic activity to be boosted by the...

World overview: Forecast summary

Publication date: 30 Oct 2019 | Publication type: National Institute Economic Review | Theme: Macroeconomics | NIESR Author(s): Naisbitt, B, Boshoff, J, Hurst, I, Kara, A, Lenoel, C, Liadze, I, Mao, X, Thamotheram, C, Whyte, K | Journal: National Institute Economic Review Issue 250 | Publisher: Sage Publications, London

Increases in tariffs and uncertainty about both future tariff impositions and their potential implications for production activity have continued to have negative effects on global trade and industrial production. Several central banks, facing below target inflation, have loosened monetary policy...

Commentary: Monetary and fiscal options in the event of a ‘No-Deal Brexit’

The prospect of leaving the European Union has acted to hamper much economic activity and the formulation of forward-looking plans over the past three years. The Institute has outlined the consequences arising from the various EU Exit scenarios that the UK may face, each of which will leave output...

World overview: Forecast summary

Publication date: 24 Jul 2019 | Publication type: National Institute Economic Review | Theme: Macroeconomics | NIESR Author(s): Naisbitt, B, Boshoff, J, Kara, A, Hurst, I, Lazarowicz, T, Lenoel, C, Liadze, I, Mao, X, Thamotheram, C, Whyte, K | Journal: National Institute Economic Review Issue 249 | Publisher: Sage Publications, London

Recent trends in global industrial production and trade show activity stalling since late last year. The pace of service sector activity has remained steadier. Tariff increases and trade disputes have contributed to the weakness in production and trade and have added uncertainty to the global...

Introduction: Economic Measurement

Innovation in economic measurement is fundamental to a better understanding of how our changing economy works and for whom. The ESCoE Conference on Economic Measurement is a new forum to promote research on economic measurement and increase dialogue between academic economists, national...

Measuring the other half: new measures of intangible investment from the ONS

Only half of investment by firms is in physical capital, such as buildings and machinery. The other half is in intangible assets, such as branding, software and training. This has been true for the past two decades or more in the UK, but only if you step beyond the measures in the National Accounts...

Cloud computing, cross-border data flows and new challenges for measurement in economics

When economists talk about ‘measurement’ they tend to refer to metrics that can capture changes in quantity, quality and distribution of goods and services. In this paper we argue that the digital transformation of the economy, particularly the rise of cloud computing as a general-purpose...

Distinguishing between imports for domestic use and for re-exports: a novel method illustrated for the Netherlands

Global trade in the 21st century is characterised by complex value chains. Successful exporters usually rely on quality imports, and exported goods cross borders many times before reaching their final consumer. This poses challenges to economic measurement as well as policymaking because it becomes...

Exploring the link between economic complexity and emergent economic activities

Recent studies have shown a strong link between the complexity of economies and their economic development. There remain gaps in our understanding of the mechanisms underpinning these links, in part because they are difficult to analyse with highly aggregated, official data sources that do not...

Measuring welfare beyond GDP

Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is often treated as shorthand for national economic well-being, even though it was never intended to be; it is a measure of (some) of the marketable output of the economy. This paper reviews several developments in measuring welfare beyond GDP that were recently...

The mysterious cross-country dispersion in mobile phone price trends

Mobile phones have been central to ICT innovation since the introduction of the smartphone and constant-quality prices are a barometer of their economic impact. Official consumer price indices (CPIs) indicate that impact differs wildly across countries: for the 2008–18 period, average annual rates...

Prospects for the UK economy: Forecast Summary

Economic growth has stalled and there is around a one-in-four chance that the economy is already in a technical recession. The outlook beyond October, when the United Kingdom is due to leave the European Union, is very murky indeed with the possibility of a severe downturn in the event of a...

Prospects for the UK economy: Forecast Summary

The UK’s future relationship with the European Union (EU) remains undecided. Brexit-related uncertainty has led to investment plans being deferred and increased stockbuilding. Under our main-case forecast, based on a ‘soft’ Brexit and continuing uncertainty, GDP growth continues at around 1½ per...

World overview: Forecast summary

Publication date: 25 Apr 2019 | Publication type: National Institute Economic Review | Theme: Macroeconomics | NIESR Author(s): Naisbitt, B, Boshoff, J, Hurst, I, Kara, A, Lennard, J, Liadze, I, Lazarowicz, T, Thamotheram, C | Journal: National Institute Economic Review Issue 248 | Publisher: Sage Publications, London

Recent data indicates that the global output growth cycle has peaked. We expect global GDP growth to continue, but at a slightly slower pace than in the past two years. Tariff increases and trade disputes have contributed to slowing growth and have added uncertainty to the global economic outlook....

Introduction: Challenges for Immigration Policy in Post-Brexit Britain

Immigration is a key economic and social issue: it has fuelled economic growth and prosperity, changed the demographic composition of the UK and shaped much of the political agenda. It played a role in the outcome of the EU referendum vote, leading the Government to seek to remove free movement...

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