Publications
Publication date: 11 Dec 2020
| Publication type: NIESR Discussion Paper
| JEL Classification: C90, D91, L83, Z20
| NIESR discussion paper number: 524
Abstract
The Covid-19 pandemic has induced worldwide natural experiments on the effects of crowds. We exploit one of these experiments that took place over several countries in almost identical settings: professional football matches played behind closed doors within the 2019/20 league seasons. ...
Publication date: 2 Dec 2020
| Publication type: NIESR Discussion Paper
| JEL Classification: C43, E31
| NIESR discussion paper number: 523
This research has been funded by the Office for National Statistics as part of the research programme of the Economic Statistics Centre of Excellence (ESCoE). This paper was first published in July 2020: “Outlier detection methodologies for alternative data sources: International review of current...
Publication date: 26 Nov 2020
| Publication type: NIESR Discussion Paper
| JEL Classification: C13, I12, I13, I18
| NIESR discussion paper number: 522
Abstract
This paper explores the use of a fuzzy regression discontinuity design where multiple treatments are applied at the threshold. The identification results show that, under the very strong assumption that the change in the probability of treatment at the cutoff is equal across treatments, a...
Publication date: 23 Nov 2020
| Publication type: NIESR Discussion Paper
| JEL Classification: E61, H12, I18, J15, D85
| NIESR discussion paper number: 521
Abstract
We address the problem of finding the optimal lockdown and reopening policy during a pandemic like COVID-19, for a social planner who prioritizes health over short-term wealth accumulation. Agents are connected through a fuzzy network of contacts, and the planner’s objective is to determine...
Publication date: 18 Nov 2020
| Publication type: NIESR Discussion Paper
| JEL Classification: F31, G01, E44, N24
| NIESR discussion paper number: 520
Abstract
We extend the canonical global game model of currency crises to allow for macroeconomic tail risk. The exchange rate peg is attacked if fundamentals reach a critical threshold, or if there is a sufficiently large public shock. Large shocks generate doubt amongst investors about both the...
Publication date: 11 Nov 2020
| Publication type: NIESR Discussion Paper
| JEL Classification: E31; E40; E51
| NIESR discussion paper number: 519
Abstract
The Federal Reserve responded to the global financial crisis by initiating an unprecedented expansion of central bank money (bank reserves) once the policy rate had reached the lower bound. To capture the salient features of the crisis, we develop a model where the central bank can provide...
Publication date: 5 Nov 2020
| Publication type: NIESR Discussion Paper
| JEL Classification: D24; O47
| NIESR discussion paper number: 518
Abstract
Over the past 15 years productivity growth in advanced economies has significantly slowed, giving rise to the productivity paradox of the New Digital Economy – that is, the notion of increased business spending on ICT assets and digital services without a noticeable increase in...
Publication date: 19 Oct 2020
| Publication type: NIESR Discussion Paper
| JEL Classification: C22, C32
| NIESR discussion paper number: 517
| Publisher: NIESR, London
Abstract
This article shows how new time series models can be used to track the progress of an epidemic, forecast key variables and evaluate the effects of policies. A class of univariate time series models was developed by Harvey and Kattuman (2020). Here the framework is extended to modelling...
Publication date: 5 Oct 2020
| Publication type: NIESR Discussion Paper
| JEL Classification: E44; G01; G18;
| NIESR discussion paper number: 516
Abstract
Policy makers need to know if the structure of competition and the degree of banking market concentration change the incidence of financial crises. Previous studies have not always come to clear conclusions. We use a new dataset of 19 countries where we include capital adequacy and house...
Publication date: 1 Oct 2020
| Publication type: NIESR Discussion Paper
| JEL Classification: E44, E58, G17, G28
| Discussion paper category: Macroeconomics
| NIESR discussion paper number: 515
Abstract
Against the background of the policy interest in the interaction of monetary policy and macroprudential policy, we present empirical estimates of effects of macroprudential policies alongside monetary policy on banks’ interest rate margins (net interest income/average assets). This is an...
Publication date: 4 May 2020
| Publication type: NIESR Discussion Paper
| JEL Classification: E44, E58, G17, G28
| Discussion paper category: Macroeconomics
| NIESR discussion paper number: 514
Despite the importance of profitability to banks’ growth and stability, there have, to our knowledge, been no studies which assess the effect of macroprudential regulation on banks’ profitability, a key aspect of the transmission of macroprudential measures. We seek to fill this lacuna with...
Publication date: 30 Mar 2020
| Publication type: NIESR Discussion Paper
| Theme: Macroeconomics
| JEL Classification: E52, E58
| NIESR discussion paper number: 513
In March 2020, the Federal Reserve enhanced its existing swap lines with foreign central banks, and introduced additional temporary swap lines with other central banks, in order to support the smooth functioning of U.S. dollar funding markets during the coronavirus epidemic. The Federal Reserve...
Publication date: 12 Mar 2020
| Publication type: NIESR Discussion Paper
| Theme: Macroeconomics, Exiting the EU & Britain after Brexit
| JEL Classification: E32, E63, F02
| NIESR discussion paper number: 512
The year 2019 marked the 20th anniversary of the establishment of the Euro. It was also the last full year before the UK formally left the European Union. This paper examines the relationship between the UK and the euro area. We look at the economic distance between core and periphery groups of...
Publication date: 18 Oct 2019
| Publication type: NIESR Discussion Paper
| Theme: Education & Labour
| JEL Classification: I21
| NIESR discussion paper number: 511
We consider the role played by school leaders in improving pupil attainment, going beyond previous studies by exploring the leadership roles of deputy and assistant heads and classroom-based teachers with additional leadership responsibilities. Using panel data for state-funded secondary schools in...
Publication date: 18 Oct 2019
| Publication type: NIESR Discussion Paper
| Theme: Trade, Investment & Productivity
| JEL Classification: E22, E23, L60, L70, L80, L90, O47
| NIESR discussion paper number: 508
We analyse new industry-level data to re-examine the UK productivity puzzle. We carry out an accounting exercise that allows us to distinguish general macroeconomic patterns from sector trends and idiosyncrasies, providing a roadmap for anyone interested in explaining the puzzle. We focus on the UK...
Publication date: 18 Oct 2019
| Publication type: NIESR Discussion Paper
| Theme: Macroeconomics
| JEL Classification: D31, H23, I38
| NIESR discussion paper number: 510
An issue of interest in the literature that explores the drivers of inequality is the distributional bearing of tax and transfer policy, where an important theme concerns changes in the relative treatment of alternative population subgroups. We develop an empirical approach for quantifying the...
Publication date: 18 Oct 2019
| Publication type: NIESR Discussion Paper
| Theme: Macroeconomics
| JEL Classification: C82, E01, N1
| NIESR discussion paper number: 509
This paper provides an inventory of the available macroeconomic statistics in the UK for the last hundred years or so. The focus is on documenting the higher frequency (daily, monthly and quarterly) macroeconomic data that are available after the World War 1, rather than longer run annual time...
Publication date: 5 Jun 2019
| Publication type: NIESR Discussion Paper
| Theme: Macroeconomics
| JEL Classification: D5, E40
| NIESR discussion paper number: 507
This article surveys a subset of literature in macroeconomics which embraces the existence of multiple equilibria. This indeterminacy agenda in macroeconomics uses multiple-equilibrium models to integrate economics with psychology. Economists have long argued that business cycles are driven by...
Publication date: 5 Jun 2019
| Publication type: NIESR Discussion Paper
| Theme: Trade, Investment & Productivity
| JEL Classification: H25, O32, O38
| NIESR discussion paper number: 506
A large number of countries around the world now provide some kind of tax incentive to encourage firms to undertake innovative activity. This paper presents the policy rationale for these incentives, discusses their design and potential effectiveness, and reviews the empirical evidence on their...
Publication date: 5 Jun 2019
| Publication type: NIESR Discussion Paper
| Theme: Macroeconomics
| JEL Classification: E3, E4, F0
| NIESR discussion paper number: 505
Farmer and Nicolò (2018) show that the Farmer Monetary (FM)-Model outperforms the three-equation New-Keynesian (NK)-model in post war U.S. data. In this paper, we compare the marginal data density of the FM-model with marginal data densities for determinate and indeterminate versions of the NK-...
Publication date: 3 May 2019
| Publication type: NIESR Discussion Paper
| Theme: Macroeconomics
| JEL Classification: E62, E63, H63
| NIESR discussion paper number: 504
We examine the welfare effects of GDP-indexed bonds in a New Keynesian DSGE model. We add to a literature showing that the issuance of GDP-indexed bond may help stabilise public debt and so give more room for countercyclical fiscal policy, by conducting a careful general equilibrium welfare...
Publication date: 3 May 2019
| Publication type: NIESR Discussion Paper
| Theme: Trade, Investment & Productivity
| JEL Classification: D22, D24, G21, G30, L10
| NIESR discussion paper number: 503
Exploiting differences in pre-crisis business banking relationships, we present evidence to suggest that restricted credit availability following the 2008 financial crisis increased the rate of business failure in the United Kingdom. But rather than "cleansing” the economy by accelerating the exit...
Publication date: 2 Apr 2019
| Publication type: NIESR Discussion Paper
| Theme: Education & Labour
| JEL Classification: I21, I24, I26, J64
| NIESR discussion paper number: 502
We use the earliest cohort of English secondary school leavers with newly available Longitudinal Education Outcomes data (622,000 pupils in 2002/03) to compare earnings of people with higher vocational/technical qualifications to those of degree holders. The unusually rich data allow us to estimate...
Publication date: 21 Feb 2019
| Publication type: NIESR Discussion Paper
| Theme: Britain & Finance
| NIESR discussion paper number: 500
The Global Financial Crisis (GFC) highlighted the importance of a number of unresolved empirical issues in the field of financial stability. First, there is the sign of the relationship between bank competition and financial stability. Second, there is the relation of capital adequacy of banks to...
Publication date: 21 Feb 2019
| Publication type: NIESR Discussion Paper
| Theme: Britain & Finance
| NIESR discussion paper number: 499
Following experience in the global financial crisis (GFC), when banks with low leverage ratios were often in severe difficulty, despite high-risk-adjusted capital measures, a leverage ratio was introduced in Basel III to complement the risk-adjusted capital ratio (RAR). Empirical testing of the...
Publication date: 21 Feb 2019
| Publication type: NIESR Discussion Paper
| Theme: Employment & Social policy
| NIESR discussion paper number: 501
In 2015 the UK government announced the introduction of a new ‘National Living Wage’ (NLW) that would apply to those aged 25 and above from April 2016. At a rate of £7.20, this represented a significant increase of 7.5% over the existing National Minimum Wage (NMW) rate. Previous research has...
Publication date: 23 Jan 2019
| Publication type: NIESR Discussion Paper
| Theme: Macroeconomics
| NIESR discussion paper number: 498
We demonstrate that the Fiscal Theory of the Price Level (FTPL) cannot be used to determine the price level uniquely in the overlapping generations (OLG) model. We provide two examples of OLG models, one with three 3-period lives and one with 62-period lives. Both examples are calibrated to an...
Publication date: 23 Jan 2019
| Publication type: NIESR Discussion Paper
| Theme: Macroeconomics
| NIESR discussion paper number: 497
The more advanced economies in Asia are experiencing slower growth rates. Structural reforms are the most important policies for keeping growth rates up, but this paper takes the growth slowdown as given and focuses on implications for monetary policy. The key policy implication is the importance...
Publication date: 23 Jan 2019
| Publication type: NIESR Discussion Paper
| Theme: Education & Labour
| NIESR discussion paper number: 496
This study analyses students’ choices when leaving Key Stage 4 (KS4) to Key Stage 5 (KS5) for pupils progressing to either academic A-Level or vocational “Non-A-Level” Level 3 programmes. Using school-level data (published by the Department for Education) and linked administrative data, which...
Publication date: 22 Oct 2018
| Publication type: NIESR Discussion Paper
| Theme: Macroeconomics
| JEL Classification: C68, E32, E63
| NIESR discussion paper number: 495
We develop a simple model that motivates fiscal stabilisation policy, in the presence of economic and control uncertainty. An examination of a real-time database of economic variables and forecasts shows that our knowledge of the current and future state of the economy is subject to significant...
Publication date: 12 Oct 2018
| Publication type: NIESR Discussion Paper
| Theme: Macroeconomics
| JEL Classification: C01, C32, C53
| NIESR discussion paper number: 494
Baumeister and Kilian (2015) combine forecasts from six empirical models to predict real oil prices. In this paper, we broadly reproduce their main economic findings, employing their preferred measures of the real oil price and other real-time variables. Mindful of the importance of Brent crude oil...
Publication date: 24 Apr 2018
| Publication type: NIESR Discussion Paper
| JEL Classification: D23, D03, Z20
| NIESR discussion paper number: 493
Football is the national sport of most of the planet. This paper examines how happy the outcomes of football matches make us. We calibrate these results relative to other activities and estimate the dynamic effects these exogenous events have on our utility over time. We find that football – on...
Publication date: 23 Apr 2018
| Publication type: NIESR Discussion Paper
| Theme: Macroeconomics
| JEL Classification: J3, E1, E5
| NIESR discussion paper number: 492
There remains a puzzle around the world over why wage growth is so benign given the unemployment rate has returned to pre-recession levels. It is our contention that a considerable part of the explanation is the rise in underemployment which rose in the Great Recession but has not returned to pre-...
Publication date: 29 Mar 2018
| Publication type: NIESR Discussion Paper
| Theme: Macroeconomics
| JEL Classification: E3, E4
| NIESR discussion paper number: 491
I review the contribution and influence of Milton Friedman’s 1968 presidential address to the American Economic Association. I argue that Friedman’s influence on the practice of central banking was profound and that his argument in favour of monetary rules was responsible for thirty years of low...
Publication date: 26 Mar 2018
| Publication type: NIESR Discussion Paper
| Theme: Macroeconomics
| JEL Classification: E58, G28
| NIESR discussion paper number: 490
In this paper we incorporate a macroprudential policy model within a semi-structural global macroeconomic model, NiGEM. The existing NiGEM model is expanded for the UK, Germany and Italy¹ to include two macroprudential tools: loan-to-value ratios on mortgage lending and variable bank capital...
Publication date: 20 Mar 2018
| Publication type: NIESR Discussion Paper
| Theme: Macroeconomics
| JEL Classification: E58, G15
| NIESR discussion paper number: 489
We study the effects of the announcements of ECB asset purchases and of financial stability measures in the euro area in the wake of the global financial crisis and the euro area sovereign debt crisis on ten-year government bond term premia in eleven euro area countries. We find that the term...
Publication date: 5 Mar 2018
| Publication type: NIESR Discussion Paper
| Theme: Education & Labour
| JEL Classification: L25, L26, M12, M52, M53
| NIESR discussion paper number: 488
We examine the impact of management practices on firm performance among SMEs in Britain over the period 2011-2014, using a unique dataset which links survey data on management practices with firm performance data from the UK’s official business register. We find that SMEs are less likely to use...
Publication date: 5 Mar 2018
| Publication type: NIESR Discussion Paper
| Theme: Macroeconomics, Britain & Finance
| JEL Classification: E0, H62
| NIESR discussion paper number: 487
We refer to the idea that government must ‘tighten its belt’ as a necessary policy response to higher indebtedness as the household fallacy. We provide a reason to be skeptical of this claim that holds even if the economy always operates at full employment and all markets clear. Our argument rests...
Publication date: 1 Feb 2018
| Publication type: NIESR Discussion Paper
| Theme: Macroeconomics
| JEL Classification: E31, E40, E51
| NIESR discussion paper number: 486
We decompose aggregate consumption of heterogeneous consumers by modelling both savers and their links to collateral constrained borrowers through a bank which prices credit risk. Savers own both firms and the commercial bank while borrowers require loans from the commercial bank to effect their...
Publication date: 31 Jan 2018
| Publication type: NIESR Discussion Paper
| Theme: Macroeconomics
| NIESR discussion paper number: 485
This paper constructs a general equilibrium model where asset price fluctuations are caused by random shocks to beliefs about the future price level that reallocate consumption across generations. In this model, asset prices are volatile, and price-earnings ratios are persistent, even though there...
Publication date: 18 Dec 2017
| Publication type: NIESR Discussion Paper
| Theme: Macroeconomics
| JEL Classification: E43, E52, E58, F41, G28
| NIESR discussion paper number: 484
Recent history suggests that raising interest rates higher than warranted by macroeconomic prospects would not be the right policy for financial stability. The significant tightening of monetary policies in the advanced economies from mid-2004 to mid-2006 failed to stop increased risk-taking in the...
Publication date: 8 Dec 2017
| Publication type: NIESR Discussion Paper
| Theme: Education & Labour
| JEL Classification: I2, J24
| NIESR discussion paper number: 483
This paper investigates whether the educational choices that young people make after the completion of their GCSEs (at age 16) are influenced by their peers. More specifically, it takes advantage of the variation in peer groups that arises when students move from primary to secondary school in...
Publication date: 29 Nov 2017
| Publication type: NIESR Discussion Paper
| JEL Classification: E52, E58, F31
| NIESR discussion paper number: 482
We study the use of US dollar central bank swap lines as a tool for addressing dislocations in the foreign currency swap market against the USD since the global financial crisis. We find that the use of the Federal Reserve’s USD central bank swap lines was mainly related to tensions in US money...
Publication date: 21 Nov 2017
| Publication type: NIESR Discussion Paper
| Theme: Employment & Social policy
| JEL Classification: J01, J08, J50, J51
| NIESR discussion paper number: 481
We exploit tax-induced exogenous variance in the price of union membership to identify the effects of changes in firm union density on firm productivity and wages in the population of Norwegian firms over the period 2001 to 2012. Increases in union density lead to substantial increases in firm...
Publication date: 1 Oct 2017
| Publication type: NIESR Discussion Paper
| Theme: Macroeconomics
| JEL Classification: C51, C61, C63, H31
| NIESR discussion paper number: 479
Behavioural endogeneity is appealing functionality for any analytical tool designed to explore the implications of public policy alternatives. This study improves the evidence base for choosing between alternative approaches for projecting decision making by exploring two key research questions: (i...
Publication date: 1 Sep 2017
| Publication type: NIESR Discussion Paper
| Theme: Macroeconomics
| JEL Classification: E32, E44, G21, N13, N14, N23, N24
| NIESR discussion paper number: 478
This paper investigates the macroeconomic effects of UK banking crises over the period 1750 to 1938. We construct a new annual banking crisis series using bank failure rate data, which suggests that the incidence of banking crises was every 30 or so years. Using our new series and a narrative...
Publication date: 31 Aug 2017
| Publication type: NIESR Discussion Paper
| Theme: Education & Labour
| JEL Classification: I22, I28, H31
| NIESR discussion paper number: 480
Education and training among the working-age population has become an increasingly important policy issue as working lives have lengthened and the pace of technological change has quickened. This paper describes the effects of a reform that broadened access to public subsidies for adult Vocational...
Publication date: 1 Aug 2017
| Publication type: NIESR Discussion Paper
| Theme: Employment & Social policy
| JEL Classification: J24, J28, L22, L23, M12, M54
| NIESR discussion paper number: 477
I examine the history of employee engagement and how it has been characterised by thinkers in sociology, psychology, management and economics. I suggest that, while employers may choose to invest in employee engagement, there are alternative management strategies that may be profit-maximising. I...
Publication date: 3 Jul 2017
| Publication type: NIESR Discussion Paper
| Theme: Macroeconomics
| NIESR discussion paper number: 475
This study investigates how the legal provisions contained in Bilateral Investment Treaties (BITs) affect foreign direct investment inflows in OECD countries. This stands in contrast to the existing literature on two counts: first, we examine separate investor protection provisions contained in...
Publication date: 20 Feb 2017
| Publication type: NIESR Discussion Paper
| Theme: Macroeconomics
| JEL Classification: E43, E52, E63
| NIESR discussion paper number: 476
Using an empirical model, this paper finds that shortening the average maturity of US Treasury debt held outside the Federal Reserve by one year reduces the five-year forward 10-year yield by between 130 and 150 basis points. Based on a pre-crisis period, these estimates suggest that portfolio...
- 1 of 11
- next ›