Publications
Publication date: 27 Mar 2020
| Publication type: NiGEM Observations
Summary
• The coronavirus pandemic has triggered a global economic shock. We provide an exploratory analysis of its impact on the global economy
• The channels we focus on are a reduction in labour, a reduction in expenditure and investment, an increase in uncertainty, and a temporary shutdown...
Publication date: 5 Aug 2019
| Publication type: NiGEM Observations
| Theme: Macroeconomics
Abstract:
In this NiGEM Observation, we evaluate the macroeconomic effects of expansionary fiscal policy measures on the UK economy. We consider two fiscal packages, one based on Labour Party policy and one based on some of the policies put forward during the 2019 Conservative Party leadership...
Publication date: 29 May 2019
| Publication type: NiGEM Observations
| Theme: Macroeconomics, Exiting the EU & Britain after Brexit
This NiGEM Observation presents updated estimates of the economic impact of different Brexit scenarios based on analyses recently published by NIESR and building on earlier work on EU withdrawal by the Institute (e.g. Pain and Young, 2004; Ebell et al., 2016). It provides an overview of the...
Publication date: 8 Nov 2018
| Publication type: NiGEM Observations
| Theme: Macroeconomics
Abstract:
The trade dispute between the US and China has not abated. On 24th of September, the US imposed a 10 per cent tariff on an additional $200bn imports from China (which, based on 2017 trade data, is around 40 per cent of total US imports of goods and services from China and about 8 per cent...
Publication date: 22 May 2017
| Publication type: NiGEM Observations
| Theme: Macroeconomics
Issue 11
Abstract:
This NiGEM Observation summarises the recent empirical evidence on trade protectionism and on the relationship between economic growth and openness to trade. We find that trade restrictive policies have increased, in fact in a subdued way, whereas economists still consider international...
Publication date: 22 May 2017
| Publication type: NiGEM Observations
| Theme: Macroeconomics
Issue 12
Abstract:
Although specific proposals have yet to be announced, the president of the United States (US) has indicated that he is considering measures to introduce or increase tariffs on imports. The proposed policy shift, which may also entail fiscal measures to promote US exports, appears to be...
Publication date: 9 Dec 2016
| Publication type: NiGEM Observations
| Theme: Macroeconomics
Issue 10
Abstract¹:
Much will remain unknown about the policies to be pursued by the United States’ new president-elect, Donald Trump, until after he enters into office on 20th January 2017. However, he has promised substantial change in many areas, including fiscal, trade, and immigration policies, and his...
Publication date: 26 Oct 2016
| Publication type: NiGEM Observations
| Theme: Macroeconomics
Issue 9
Abstract:
Knowledge of the price and income elasticities of trade is of relevance as they provide guidance to the impact of fluctuations in sterling and foreign demand on the domestic economy. Fluctuations in demand have a stronger impact on trade volumes than exchange rate movements. Both price...
Publication date: 20 Oct 2016
| Publication type: NiGEM Observations
| Theme: Macroeconomics
Issue 8
NiGEM Observations is a series of occasional notes published by the NiGEM team on topical macroeconomic modelling issues for NIESR corporate sponsors and NiGEM subscribers.
Publication date: 18 Oct 2016
| Publication type: NiGEM Observations
| Theme: Macroeconomics
Issue 7
NiGEM Observations is a series of occasional notes published by the NiGEM team on topical macroeconomic modelling issues for NIESR corporate sponsors and NiGEM subscribers.
Publication date: 21 Jul 2016
| Publication type: NiGEM Observations
| Theme: Macroeconomics
Issue 5
Abstract:
We describe the evolution of various measures of uncertainty in the lead up to and following the UK’s referendum and develop our own composite index to estimate the level of uncertainty in the UK economy. We will continue to refine our estimates and also use these measures to underpin our...
Publication date: 8 Jul 2016
| Publication type: NiGEM Observations
| Theme: Macroeconomics
Issue 4
Abstract:
The referendum result has prompted a sharp depreciation of sterling, which has declined by over 12 per cent against the US dollar since 23 June 2016. Framed in a risk-adjusted uncovered interest rate parity (UIP) condition, two factors lie behind this adjustment: a rise in the sterling...
Publication date: 1 Jul 2016
| Publication type: NiGEM Observations
| Theme: Macroeconomics
Issue 3
Abstract:
Financial markets have been volatile since the UK’s referendum on membership of the EU last Thursday. Within the NiGEM team we are constantly monitoring developments to inform our view on the outlook for the UK economy, which will eventually result in our updated quarterly forecast to be...
Publication date: 22 Jun 2016
| Publication type: NiGEM Observations
| Theme: Macroeconomics
Issue 2
Abstract:
As the debate around the UK’s impending referendum on EU membership has ebbed and flowed, so too have financial markets. Using our newly developed estimates for sovereign risk premia, we uncover how news about the likely outcome of the referendum has impacted financial markets, and what...
Publication date: 20 Jun 2016
| Publication type: NiGEM Observations
| Theme: Macroeconomics
Issue 1
Abstract:
In May, the NiGEM team produced counterfactual paths for the UK economy under a variety of scenarios for the UK leaving or remaining in the EU. The negative impact on the economy from leaving, relative to a remain scenario, is reasonably clear but we can also use the model to draw the...
