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  • NiGEM Observations

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Publications

A preliminary assessment of the possible economic impact of the coronavirus outbreak: update
Publication date: 27 Mar 2020 | Publication type: NiGEM Observations | NIESR Author(s): Hurst, I, Liadze, I, Naisbitt, B, Young, G
  Summary • The coronavirus pandemic has triggered a global economic shock. We provide an exploratory analysis of its impact on the global economy • The channels we focus on are a reduction in labour, a reduction in expenditure and investment, an increase in uncertainty, and a temporary shutdown...
The Macroeconomics of Fiscal Give-Aways
Publication date: 5 Aug 2019 | Publication type: NiGEM Observations | Theme: Macroeconomics | NIESR Author(s): Hantzsche, A
  Abstract:   In this NiGEM Observation, we evaluate the macroeconomic effects of expansionary fiscal policy measures on the UK economy. We consider two fiscal packages, one based on Labour Party policy and one based on some of the policies put forward during the 2019 Conservative Party leadership...
Update: Modelling the short- and long-run impact of Brexit
Publication date: 29 May 2019 | Publication type: NiGEM Observations | Theme: Macroeconomics, Exiting the EU & Britain after Brexit | NIESR Author(s): Hantzsche, A
This NiGEM Observation presents updated estimates of the economic impact of different Brexit scenarios based on analyses recently published by NIESR and building on earlier work on EU withdrawal by the Institute (e.g. Pain and Young, 2004; Ebell et al., 2016). It provides an overview of the...
Trade war - the saga continues
Publication date: 8 Nov 2018 | Publication type: NiGEM Observations | Theme: Macroeconomics | NIESR Author(s): Liadze, I
Abstract: The trade dispute between the US and China has not abated. On 24th of September, the US imposed a 10 per cent tariff on an additional $200bn imports from China (which, based on 2017 trade data, is around 40 per cent of total US imports of goods and services from China and about 8 per cent...
The macroeconomic implications of increasing tariffs on US imports
Publication date: 22 May 2017 | Publication type: NiGEM Observations | Theme: Macroeconomics | NIESR Author(s): Liadze, I, Hacche, G Issue 12
Abstract: Although specific proposals have yet to be announced, the president of the United States (US) has indicated that he is considering measures to introduce or increase tariffs on imports. The proposed policy shift, which may also entail fiscal measures to promote US exports, appears to be...
The risks from increased trade protectionism
Publication date: 22 May 2017 | Publication type: NiGEM Observations | Theme: Macroeconomics | NIESR Author(s): Carreras, O, Ramina, M Issue 11
Abstract: This NiGEM Observation summarises the recent empirical evidence on trade protectionism and on the relationship between economic growth and openness to trade. We find that trade restrictive policies have increased, in fact in a subdued way, whereas economists still consider international...
The macroeconomic implications of the US President-elect’s fiscal plans
Publication date: 9 Dec 2016 | Publication type: NiGEM Observations | Theme: Macroeconomics | NIESR Author(s): Liadze, I, Hacche, G Issue 10
Abstract¹: Much will remain unknown about the policies to be pursued by the United States’ new president-elect, Donald Trump, until after he enters into office on 20th January 2017. However, he has promised substantial change in many areas, including fiscal, trade, and immigration policies, and his...
Trade elasticities and the depreciation of sterling
Publication date: 26 Oct 2016 | Publication type: NiGEM Observations | Theme: Macroeconomics | NIESR Author(s): Carreras, O Issue 9
Abstract: Knowledge of the price and income elasticities of trade is of relevance as they provide guidance to the impact of fluctuations in sterling and foreign demand on the domestic economy. Fluctuations in demand have a stronger impact on trade volumes than exchange rate movements. Both price...
Post referendum developments in uncertainty measures: an update
Publication date: 20 Oct 2016 | Publication type: NiGEM Observations | Theme: Macroeconomics | NIESR Author(s): Piggott, R Issue 8
NiGEM Observations is a series of occasional notes published by the NiGEM team on topical macroeconomic modelling issues for NIESR corporate sponsors and NiGEM subscribers.
How much monetary policy space is left?
Publication date: 18 Oct 2016 | Publication type: NiGEM Observations | Theme: Macroeconomics | NIESR Author(s): Meaning, J Issue 7
NiGEM Observations is a series of occasional notes published by the NiGEM team on topical macroeconomic modelling issues for NIESR corporate sponsors and NiGEM subscribers.
Recent Developments in Uncertainty Measures
Publication date: 21 Jul 2016 | Publication type: NiGEM Observations | Theme: Macroeconomics | NIESR Author(s): Carreras, O, Piggott, R Issue 5
Abstract: We describe the evolution of various measures of uncertainty in the lead up to and following the UK’s referendum and develop our own composite index to estimate the level of uncertainty in the UK economy. We will continue to refine our estimates and also use these measures to underpin our...
Dissecting Sterling’s Fall
Publication date: 8 Jul 2016 | Publication type: NiGEM Observations | Theme: Macroeconomics | NIESR Author(s): Carreras, O, Piggott, R Issue 4
Abstract: The referendum result has prompted a sharp depreciation of sterling, which has declined by over 12 per cent against the US dollar since 23 June 2016. Framed in a risk-adjusted uncovered interest rate parity (UIP) condition, two factors lie behind this adjustment: a rise in the sterling...
After the Referendum: what are financial markets telling us so far?
Publication date: 1 Jul 2016 | Publication type: NiGEM Observations | Theme: Macroeconomics | NIESR Author(s): Meaning, J, Warren, J | External Author(s): Lloyd, S Issue 3
Abstract: Financial markets have been volatile since the UK’s referendum on membership of the EU last Thursday. Within the NiGEM team we are constantly monitoring developments to inform our view on the outlook for the UK economy, which will eventually result in our updated quarterly forecast to be...
Sovereign risk and the referendum – how have bonds responded?
Publication date: 22 Jun 2016 | Publication type: NiGEM Observations | Theme: Macroeconomics | NIESR Author(s): Meaning, J | External Author(s): Lloyd, S Issue 2
Abstract: As the debate around the UK’s impending referendum on EU membership has ebbed and flowed, so too have financial markets. Using our newly developed estimates for sovereign risk premia, we uncover how news about the likely outcome of the referendum has impacted financial markets, and what...
To leave or remain? Assessing a bi-modal future
Publication date: 20 Jun 2016 | Publication type: NiGEM Observations | Theme: Macroeconomics | NIESR Author(s): Kirby, S, Hurst, I Issue 1
Abstract: In May, the NiGEM team produced counterfactual paths for the UK economy under a variety of scenarios for the UK leaving or remaining in the EU. The negative impact on the economy from leaving, relative to a remain scenario, is reasonably clear but we can also use the model to draw the...

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