Publications
Publication date: 29 Sep 2021
| Publication type: Policy Paper
Issue 29
We analyse the probability distribution of outcomes for the USS in the light of conflicting claims about its sustainability in the absence of changes in contributions or in benefits. We find that a substantial investment in riskier assets (equities) makes the average outcome one in which the scheme...
Publication date: 13 Sep 2021
| Publication type: Policy Paper
| Report number: 28
A little over a year ago, the EU’s political leaders agreed on an unprecedented fiscal package – dubbed ‘Next Generation EU’ – to aid Europe’s recovery from the pandemic. Ricardo Hausmann, Miguel Angel Santos, Corrado Macchiarelli and Renato Giacon write that economic complexity theories can...
Publication date: 28 Jul 2021
| Publication type: Policy Paper
| Theme: Macroeconomics
| Report number: 27
As we face up to the need to plan an eventual exit from quantitative easing, in this Commentary we consider how to reform both sides of the central bank balance sheet in a manner that will prepare the ground for a contraction in the balance sheet that does not expose the central bank to excessive...
Publication date: 15 Apr 2021
| Publication type: Policy Paper
Issue 26
| Report number: 26
Abstract
Vaccination against the COVID-19 virus began in December 2020 in the UK and by the end of March 2021 were running at 5% population/week. High Levels of social restrictions were implemented for the third time in January 2021 to control the second wave and the resulting in increases in...
Publication date: 25 Mar 2021
| Publication type: Policy Paper
| JEL Classification: E52, E58, E63, H63.
| Report number: 25
Abstract
The coronavirus pandemic has led to a large increase in the U.K.’s government debt, and the Office for Budget Responsibility has warned that a rise in interest rates might imperil debt sustainability. If the Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee were obliged to raise short-term...
Publication date: 25 Nov 2020
| Publication type: Policy Paper
| Report number: 24
Abstract
The Chancellor’s One Year Spending Review provides welcome and much-needed support for many sectors of the economy suffering their largest contraction in modern times. The furlough and business bounce back loan schemes are good examples of how support has been provided but on a time-...
Publication date: 4 Nov 2020
| Publication type: Policy Paper
| Report number: 23
Summary
We estimate that the November lockdown will contribute to a fourth quarter contraction in GDP in the region of 3 per cent and reduce year-on-year growth from our November Review main case forecast of -10.5% to between -11.5 and -12%.
Publication date: 20 Oct 2020
| Publication type: Policy Paper
| Report number: 22
Abstract
As a discipline, we have contributed much in response to the global challenges posed by the COVID-19 pandemic. But we also have much to learn about what it implies for our profession. And there are key actions—particularly on fiscal, monetary, global forecasting, prudential, sovereign...
Publication date: 14 Sep 2020
| Publication type: Policy Paper
| Report number: 21
National Institute of Economic and Social Research, in association with Heriot-Watt University
Abstract
The COVID-19 crisis is continuing to have devastating consequences for the UK population, particularly the poorest segments of society. Based on quarterly macroeconomic scenarios of economic...
Publication date: 26 May 2020
| Publication type: Policy Paper
| Report number: 20
Abstract
After a period of deleveraging following the financial crisis a decade ago, the past five years have seen private sector debt rising again in both advanced and emerging economies. Public sector indebtedness, too, is generally higher than five years ago. The increase in debt was, before...
Publication date: 22 May 2020
| Publication type: Policy Paper
| Report number: 19
Abstract
The UK University system faces its biggest challenge in 40 years as a direct result of the Covid-19 pandemic. What is the scale of the uncertainty facing universities and to what extent have the problems been exacerbated by the over-reliance on overseas student fee income to facilitate a...
Publication date: 12 May 2020
| Publication type: Policy Paper
| JEL Classification: E52, E58
| Report number: 18
The Federal Reserve and the Bank of England have been pursuing yield curve control in their respective government securities markets since market liquidity collapsed in the middle of March. The paper discusses the issues that arose during and after previous episodes of yield curve control,...
Publication date: 23 Apr 2020
| Publication type: Policy Paper
| Report number: 17
Abstract
Pandemic is not the time to “do something”: more than ever, it is the time to “do something coherent.” Aid for the poorest countries conditioned on debt service, just announced by the IMF and G-20, utterly fails that imperative. Instead, grants equivalent to the full IMF estimate of the...
Publication date: 22 Apr 2020
| Publication type: Policy Paper
| Report number: 16
Abstract
The big changes in consumption patterns during the Lockdown need not of themselves have a big effect on measured inflation. Using a guesstimate of lockdown weights for different types of consumption and applying them retrospectively to the 2019 inflation data as an experiment led to a...
Publication date: 14 Apr 2020
| Publication type: Policy Paper
| Report number: 15
Abstract
This paper explores the costs and benefits of compensating those UK SMEs who have experienced substantial revenue loss as a result of the current closure of their business activities. It finds that the benefits very substantially exceed the costs, by a ratio of 5:1 (every £1 of government...
Publication date: 9 Apr 2020
| Publication type: Policy Paper
| Report number: 14
With economic activity severely disrupted by the coronavirus crisis, many governments have been supporting peoples’ incomes and keeping businesses alive by means of income support programmes financed by borrowing. This paper describes how the borrowing is being done in the United States and the...
Publication date: 1 Apr 2020
| Publication type: Policy Paper
| JEL Classification: E58, E64, H51
| Report number: 13
The purpose of this article is twofold. Firstly, it argues that it is doubtful that the currently announced policies will achieve their targets while they create substantial obstacles to the recovery of the post-crisis economy. Secondly, it proposes an alternative plan that its aim is (a) to ensure...
Publication date: 11 Mar 2020
| Publication type: Policy Paper
| Report number: 12
On Wednesday 11th March 2020, Chancellor Rishi Sunak delivered his first Budget only 27 days after being appointed. The Chancellor delivered this first, post-Brexit Budget for this Government, which has a strong mandate after its comprehensive election victory in December that should be strong...
Publication date: 6 Mar 2019
| Publication type: Policy Paper
| Theme: Macroeconomics
| Report number: 11
Political deadlock and constitutional crisis does not necessarily spell economic doom. The UK economy is at full employment and in desperate need of investment to enhance productive capacity. But waiting for the outcome of this tortuous EU Exit process has produced an economic delay. Output is...
Publication date: 15 Jan 2019
| Publication type: Policy Paper
| Theme: Trade, Investment & Productivity
| Report number: 10
This short paper explores the evolution of regional economic disparities in the UK from the 1960s until now. While there have always been economic disparities, more than two thirds of places now are less productive than the national average. Regional differences are discussed in terms of incomes...
Publication date: 3 Dec 2018
| Publication type: Policy Paper
| Theme: Macroeconomics, Exiting the EU & Britain after Brexit
| Report number: 9
You can also view the evidence as submitted to the Treasury Committee on the Treasury Committee website
The UK is set to leave the European Union at the end of March 2019. The process of leaving was triggered by the result of the Advisory Referendum held on 23 June 2016, which led to invocation of...
Publication date: 21 Sep 2018
| Publication type: Policy Paper
| Theme: Macroeconomics
| Report number: 8
This policy paper reviews the report ‘Financing Investment’, commissioned by the Shadow Chancellor from GFC Economics and Clearpoint Advisors, and published on 20th June 2018. The authors say that the report ‘should not be taken to represent the views of the Labour Party or the Shadow Chancellor...
Publication date: 11 Jul 2018
| Publication type: Policy Paper
| Theme: Exiting the EU & Britain after Brexit
| Report number: 7
Abstract
Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) trade models are helpful and widely used laboratories to study the economic effects of changes in trade policy and in particular different Brexit scenarios.
Both the calibration of the structural parameters of the model (e.g. trade elasticity) and the...
Publication date: 14 Mar 2018
| Publication type: Policy Paper
| Theme: Macroeconomics
| Report number: 6
Chancellor Phillip Hammond presented the first Spring Statement yesterday. This was not the occasion to expect new fiscal policies or for rabbits out of a hat – we were told that in advance – even the symbolic red budget box was missing. The Chancellor kept to his promise and made this a non-event...
Publication date: 1 Feb 2018
| Publication type: Policy Paper
| Theme: Macroeconomics
| Report number: 4
Professor Jagjit S Chadha's written evidence submitted to the Treasury Committee on 29th November 2017 (written evidence can also be found here)
Publication date: 19 Jun 2017
| Publication type: Policy Paper
| Theme: Employment & Social policy, Exiting the EU & Britain after Brexit
| Report number: 4
Alongside access to the singlemarket, EU immigration policy is arguably the most important issue facing employers and policymakers resulting from the UK’s decision to leave the European Union. At the time of publication, shortly after the General Election result and with a hung parliament
in place...
Publication date: 31 Mar 2017
| Publication type: Policy Paper
| Theme: Macroeconomics
| Report number: 2
UK monetary policy, following the 2008 recession, was effective at preventing the crisis from having a bigger effect than it otherwise might have done. As a result of experimenting with quantitative easing (an expansion in the Bank’s balance sheet) and qualitative easing (a change in the risk...
Publication date: 31 Mar 2017
| Publication type: Policy Paper
| Theme: Macroeconomics
| Report number: 3
This is the third in our our new Policy Paper series, written by members of the National Institute of Economic and Social Research to specifically address a public policy issue. These may be evidence submitted to a public or parliamentary enquiry or policy research commissioned by a third party...
Publication date: 31 Jan 2017
| Publication type: Policy Paper
| Theme: Macroeconomics
| Report number: 1
This is the first in our our new Policy Paper series, written by members of the National Institute of Economic and Social Research to specifically address a public policy issue. These may be evidence submitted to a public or parliamentary enquiry or policy research commissioned by a third party...
