Skip to main content

HomeNational
Institute of
Economic and
Social Research
National Institute of Economic and Social Research

  • About us
  • Staff
  • Alumni
  • Vacancies
  • Partners
  • Sponsorship
  • Contact
  • Sign up
  • Home
  • Research Programmes
    • Britain & Finance
    • Education & Labour
    • Employment & Social policy
    • Exiting the EU & Britain after Brexit
    • Macroeconomics
    • Trade, Investment & Productivity
  • Publications
  • Blogs
  • Events
  • Media
  • Forecasts
  • NiGEM
  • Economic Crisis: Covid-19

Publication type

  • NIESR GDP Tracker

Subscribe to RSS feed

Publications

February 2021 GDP Tracker
Publication date: 12 Feb 2021 | Publication type: NIESR GDP Tracker | NIESR Author(s): Whyte, K
Continued lockdown puts gloom on Q1 outlook   Main points Latest economic data confirms that the UK economy posted 1.0 per cent growth in the fourth quarter of 2020, consistent with annual decline of 9.9 per cent. This annual decline is exactly in line with the published forecast in our latest...
January 2021 GDP Tracker
Publication date: 15 Jan 2021 | Publication type: NIESR GDP Tracker | NIESR Author(s): MacQueen, R
Adjusting to lockdowns: GDP to contract in 2021Q1   Main points November GDP data confirm that the second lockdown in England had a far smaller impact on economic activity than the first. The manufacturing sector, for example, operated 32 per cent below pre-Covid capacity in April but continued...
December 2020 GDP Tracker
Publication date: 10 Dec 2020 | Publication type: NIESR GDP Tracker | NIESR Author(s): MacQueen, R
October Cloud and November Rain Main points The morning’s ONS estimates suggest that the UK economy grew by 0.4 per cent in October, as the economic recovery from the early stages of Covid-19 slowed. This is largely in line with what we expected in our November GDP Tracker Based on survey data...
November 2020 GDP Tracker
Publication date: 12 Nov 2020 | Publication type: NIESR GDP Tracker | NIESR Author(s): Whyte, K, MacQueen, R
GDP forecast to contract by 2.2 per cent in Q4   Main points Latest ONS estimates published this morning show that the UK economy grew by15 ½ per cent in the third quarter of 2020, as the economy recovered from the first phase of the Covid-19 pandemic and resultant public health measures. This is...
October 2020 GDP Tracker
Publication date: 9 Oct 2020 | Publication type: NIESR GDP Tracker | NIESR Author(s): Whyte, K
Recovery to stall due to heightened Covid-19 uncertainty Main points Latest ONS estimates published this morning suggest that the UK economy grew by 8.0 per cent in the three months to August, broadly in line with our forecast last month (figure 1). All major sectors remain below their February...
September 2020 GDP Tracker
Publication date: 11 Sep 2020 | Publication type: NIESR GDP Tracker
UK economy on rocky road to recovery with growth forecast of around 2 per cent in August Figure 1 - UK GDP growth (3 months on previous 3 months, per cent) Main points Latest ONS estimates published this morning show that the UK economy contracted by 7.6 per cent in the three months to July,...
August 2020 GDP Tracker
Publication date: 12 Aug 2020 | Publication type: NIESR GDP Tracker | Theme: Macroeconomics | NIESR Author(s): Whyte, K
GDP picking up after recession confirmed Main points Latest ONS estimates published this morning show that the UK economy contracted by 20.4 per cent in the second quarter of 2020, thereby confirming the UK’s first recession since the global financial crisis. This outturn is largely in line with...
July 2020 GDP Tracker
Publication date: 14 Jul 2020 | Publication type: NIESR GDP Tracker | NIESR Author(s): Whyte, K
Slow recovery from 20 per cent output contraction   Main points The UK economy remains on course to decline by 20 to 25 per cent in the second quarter of 2020. According to the ONS estimate published this morning, the UK economy contracted by 19.1 per cent in the three months to May, broadly in...
June 2020 GDP Tracker
Publication date: 12 Jun 2020 | Publication type: NIESR GDP Tracker | NIESR Author(s): Whyte, K
UK Set to Lose a Quarter of Output in Q2   Main points The UK economy looks set to decline by 20 to 25 per cent in the second quarter of 2020, a significantly steeper decline than the first quarter, reflecting the full impact of lockdown measures. According to the ONS estimate published this...
May 2020 GDP Tracker
Publication date: 13 May 2020 | Publication type: NIESR GDP Tracker | NIESR Author(s): Whyte, K
Economy Contracting at Rapid Pace   Main Points The ONS preliminary estimates suggest that growth declined by 2.0 per cent in the first quarter of 2020, broadly consistent with what we suggested it could be last month (figure1.) The substantive contraction in growth reflects negative...
April 2020 GDP Tracker
Publication date: 9 Apr 2020 | Publication type: NIESR GDP Tracker | NIESR Author(s): Whyte, K
  GDP Could Contract by 15 to 25 Per Cent in Second Quarter   Note: Grey and Burgundy bars show high and low scenarios   Main Points: Once in a century event poses major threat to UK growth. The UK economy could now see growth decline by 5% in the first quarter of 2020, and if a lockdown...
March 2020 GDP Tracker
Publication date: 11 Mar 2020 | Publication type: NIESR GDP Tracker | NIESR Author(s): Whyte, K
UK remains on course for 0.2 per cent growth in 2020 Q1, but outbreak of the Coronavirus poses a major threat to the economic outlook Main points The UK economy remains on course to grow by 0.2% in first quarter of 2020 (figure1.) According to new ONS statistics published this morning, the UK...
February 2020 GDP Tracker
Publication date: 11 Feb 2020 | Publication type: NIESR GDP Tracker | Theme: Macroeconomics | NIESR Author(s): Whyte, K
UK Economy to grow again in 2020 Q1 Please find the full commentary in the attachment
January 2020 GDP Tracker
Publication date: 13 Jan 2020 | Publication type: NIESR GDP Tracker | NIESR Author(s): Young, G
UK Output Stagnated at end of 2019                       Main points The UK economy is on course to post zero growth in the fourth quarter of 2019, consistent with growth of 1.4 per cent in 2019 as a whole.  On the basis of recent trends we tentatively forecast service sector-driven growth of 0.3...
December 2019 GDP Tracker
Publication date: 10 Dec 2019 | Publication type: NIESR GDP Tracker | Theme: Macroeconomics | NIESR Author(s): Young, G
Growth Petering Out at End of Year Please find the full commentary in the attachment
November 2019 GDP Tracker
Publication date: 11 Nov 2019 | Publication type: NIESR GDP Tracker | Theme: Macroeconomics | NIESR Author(s): Young, G
Output Stagnating After Mid-Year Rebound Please find the full commentary in the attachment
October 2019 GDP Tracker
Publication date: 10 Oct 2019 | Publication type: NIESR GDP Tracker | NIESR Author(s): Young, G
    GDP DATA BETTER THAN EXPECTED   Figure 1 - UK GDP growth (3 months on previous 3 months, per cent)   Please find the full commentary in attachment  
September 2019 GDP Tracker
Publication date: 9 Sep 2019 | Publication type: NIESR GDP Tracker | NIESR Author(s): Young, G
Economic growth resumes for now     Figure 1 - UK GDP growth (3 months on previous 3 months, per cent)   Please find the full commentary in the attachment    
August 2019 GDP Tracker
Publication date: 9 Aug 2019 | Publication type: NIESR GDP Tracker | Theme: Macroeconomics | NIESR Author(s): Young, G
Economic growth grinds to a halt Please find the full commentary in the attachment
July 2019 GDP Tracker
Publication date: 10 Jul 2019 | Publication type: NIESR GDP Tracker | Theme: Macroeconomics | NIESR Author(s): Boshoff, J
UK economy narrowly avoids recession Please find the full commentary in attachment.
June 2019 GDP Tracker
Publication date: 10 Jun 2019 | Publication type: NIESR GDP Tracker | NIESR Author(s): Young, G
UK economy slows as stockpiling boost fades         Please find the full commentary in attachment.
May 2019 GDP Tracker
Publication date: 10 May 2019 | Publication type: NIESR GDP Tracker | NIESR Author(s): Young, G
UK economy boosted by temporary factors in first quarter of 2019         Please find the full commentary in attachment.    
April 2019 GDP Tracker
Publication date: 10 Apr 2019 | Publication type: NIESR GDP Tracker | Theme: Macroeconomics | NIESR Author(s): Young, G
  The UK economy is on course to grow by 0.4% in the first quarter of 2019.     Main points   The UK economy is on course to grow by 0.4% in the first quarter of 2019 and, if current trends continue, by 0.3% in the second quarter (figure 1).  According to new ONS statistics published this morning...
March 2019 GDP Tracker
Publication date: 12 Mar 2019 | Publication type: NIESR GDP Tracker | NIESR Author(s): Kara, A, Young, G
The UK economic growth continues at slow pace and is expected to grow by 0.2% in the first quarter of 2019, the same pace as in the fourth quarter of last year.     Main points   The UK economy is on course to grow by 0.2% in the first quarter of 2019, the same pace as in the fourth quarter of...
February 2019 GDP Tracker
Publication date: 11 Feb 2019 | Publication type: NIESR GDP Tracker | NIESR Author(s): Kara, A, Young, G
  Latest economic data confirms that the UK economy lost momentum in the final quarter of 2018, with quarterly growth of 0.2%.  GDP growth is set remain weak in the first quarter of this year.      Main points Latest economic data confirms that the UK economy lost momentum in the final quarter of...
January 2019 GDP Tracker
Publication date: 11 Jan 2019 | Publication type: NIESR GDP Tracker | NIESR Author(s): Kara, A
  UK GDP growth is set to slow to a quarterly rate of 0.3% in 2018Q4 from 0.6% in the previous quarter but a modest recovery is expected in 2019Q1       Main points   UK economic growth looks set to slow to a quarterly rate of 0.3% in the fourth quarter of 2018 from 0.6% in the third quarter. ...
December 2018 GDP Tracker
Publication date: 10 Dec 2018 | Publication type: NIESR GDP Tracker | NIESR Author(s): Young, G
  Our monthly GDP Tracker suggests that UK economic growth is set to slow to a quarterly rate of 0.4% in the fourth quarter of 2018 from 0.6% in the third quarter     Main points   UK economic growth looks set to slow to a quarterly rate of 0.4% in the fourth quarter of 2018 from 0.6% in the...
November GDP Tracker
Publication date: 9 Nov 2018 | Publication type: NIESR GDP Tracker | NIESR Author(s): Kara, A
  Our monthly GDP Tracker suggests that the economy will expand by 0.4 per cent in the three months to October and by 0.4 per cent in the final quarter of this year.       Main points   In our view, UK economic growth peaked in the third quarter of this year and will settle at a rate that is...
October 2018 GDP Tracker
Publication date: 10 Oct 2018 | Publication type: NIESR GDP Tracker | Theme: Macroeconomics | NIESR Author(s): Kara, A
  Our monthly GDP Tracker suggests that the economy will expand by 0.7 per cent in the third quarter of 2018 and by 0.5 per cent in the final quarter of this year.   Figure 1: UK GDP growth (3 months on previous 3 months, per cent)   Main points   Latest economic data confirms that the UK economy...
September 2018 GDP Tracker
Publication date: 10 Sep 2018 | Publication type: NIESR GDP Tracker | Theme: Macroeconomics | NIESR Author(s): Kara, A
  UK economic growth gathers momentum   Main points   Latest economic data confirms that the UK economy has recovered from a soft patch earlier in the year and is now growing at a pace that is above potential.   According to new ONS statistics published this morning, the UK economy expanded by...
August 2018 GDP Tracker
Publication date: 10 Aug 2018 | Publication type: NIESR GDP Tracker | Theme: Macroeconomics | NIESR Author(s): Kara, A
UK economic growth back on track   Main points Latest economic data confirms that the UK economy has recovered from a soft patch earlier in the year and is now growing at a pace that is at or slightly above potential. According to new ONS statistics published this morning, the UK economy expanded...
NIESR Monthly GDP Tracker: July 2018
Publication date: 10 Jul 2018 | Publication type: NIESR GDP Tracker | NIESR Author(s): Kara, A, Lopresto, M
Our GDP Tracker indicates growth of 0.4 per cent in 2018 Q2 and 0.5 per cent in 2018 Q3  

Website by White Fuse

  • Login
  • Privacy Policy
  • Terms and Conditions
  • rss icon
  • twitter icon
  • facebook icon
  • instagram icon
  • soundcloud icon
  • youtube icon

National Institute of Economic and Social Research

2 Dean Trench Street, Smith Square London, SW1P 3HE United Kingdom

+44 (0) 207 222 7665

Registered Charity #306083

Company no. 341010