Publications
Publication date: 11 Jun 2021
| Publication type: NIESR GDP Tracker
Strong start to second quarter driven by re-opening
Figure 1 - UK GDP
Main points
Another month of rapid service sector growth in April was driven by the re-opening of sectors affected by Covid-19 restrictions, resulting in a 2.3 per cent growth in monthly GDP almost in line with our May Tracker...
Publication date: 12 May 2021
| Publication type: NIESR GDP Tracker
Construction and education recovery to be followed by retail and hospitality
Main points
First quarter GDP growth of 1.5 per cent was in line with our April Tracker forecast. Today’s ONS data reported month-on-month growth of 2.1 per cent in March, reflecting the re-opening of schools, the...
Publication date: 13 Apr 2021
| Publication type: NIESR GDP Tracker
Spring sees green shoots of economic recovery
Main points
Indications of further recovery during March mean that GDP is likely to have fallen by around 1.5 per cent in Q1 quarter-on-quarter.
Assuming that the vaccination and re-opening programmes continue to run to schedule, our first...
Publication date: 12 Mar 2021
| Publication type: NIESR GDP Tracker
Brexit and Covid put winter economy in deep freeze
Figure 1 - UK GDP
Main points
January’s smaller than expected fall in GDP means that we now estimate a contraction of 2.4 per cent in the first quarter of 2021. This would leave GDP in the...
Publication date: 12 Feb 2021
| Publication type: NIESR GDP Tracker
Continued lockdown puts gloom on Q1 outlook
Main points
Latest economic data confirms that the UK economy posted 1.0 per cent growth in the fourth quarter of 2020, consistent with annual decline of 9.9 per cent. This annual decline is exactly in line with the published forecast in our latest...
Publication date: 15 Jan 2021
| Publication type: NIESR GDP Tracker
Adjusting to lockdowns: GDP to contract in 2021Q1
Main points
November GDP data confirm that the second lockdown in England had a far smaller impact on economic activity than the first. The manufacturing sector, for example, operated 32 per cent below pre-Covid capacity in April but continued...
Publication date: 10 Dec 2020
| Publication type: NIESR GDP Tracker
October Cloud and November Rain
Main points
The morning’s ONS estimates suggest that the UK economy grew by 0.4 per cent in October, as the economic recovery from the early stages of Covid-19 slowed. This is largely in line with what we expected in our November GDP Tracker
Based on survey data...
Publication date: 12 Nov 2020
| Publication type: NIESR GDP Tracker
GDP forecast to contract by 2.2 per cent in Q4
Main points
Latest ONS estimates published this morning show that the UK economy grew by15 ½ per cent in the third quarter of 2020, as the economy recovered from the first phase of the Covid-19 pandemic and resultant public health measures. This is...
Publication date: 9 Oct 2020
| Publication type: NIESR GDP Tracker
Recovery to stall due to heightened Covid-19 uncertainty
Main points
Latest ONS estimates published this morning suggest that the UK economy grew by 8.0 per cent in the three months to August, broadly in line with our forecast last month (figure 1).
All major sectors remain below their February...
Publication date: 11 Sep 2020
| Publication type: NIESR GDP Tracker
UK economy on rocky road to recovery with growth forecast of around 2 per cent in August
Figure 1 - UK GDP growth (3 months on previous 3 months, per cent)
Main points
Latest ONS estimates published this morning show that the UK economy contracted by 7.6 per cent in the three months to July,...
Publication date: 12 Aug 2020
| Publication type: NIESR GDP Tracker
| Theme: Macroeconomics
GDP picking up after recession confirmed
Main points
Latest ONS estimates published this morning show that the UK economy contracted by 20.4 per cent in the second quarter of 2020, thereby confirming the UK’s first recession since the global financial crisis. This outturn is largely in line with...
Publication date: 14 Jul 2020
| Publication type: NIESR GDP Tracker
Slow recovery from 20 per cent output contraction
Main points
The UK economy remains on course to decline by 20 to 25 per cent in the second quarter of 2020.
According to the ONS estimate published this morning, the UK economy contracted by 19.1 per cent in the three months to May, broadly in...
Publication date: 12 Jun 2020
| Publication type: NIESR GDP Tracker
UK Set to Lose a Quarter of Output in Q2
Main points
The UK economy looks set to decline by 20 to 25 per cent in the second quarter of 2020, a significantly steeper decline than the first quarter, reflecting the full impact of lockdown measures.
According to the ONS estimate published this...
Publication date: 13 May 2020
| Publication type: NIESR GDP Tracker
Economy Contracting at Rapid Pace
Main Points
The ONS preliminary estimates suggest that growth declined by 2.0 per cent in the first quarter of 2020, broadly consistent with what we suggested it could be last month (figure1.)
The substantive contraction in growth reflects negative...
Publication date: 9 Apr 2020
| Publication type: NIESR GDP Tracker
GDP Could Contract by 15 to 25 Per Cent in Second Quarter
Note: Grey and Burgundy bars show high and low scenarios
Main Points:
Once in a century event poses major threat to UK growth. The UK economy could now see growth decline by 5% in the first quarter of 2020, and if a lockdown...
Publication date: 11 Mar 2020
| Publication type: NIESR GDP Tracker
UK remains on course for 0.2 per cent growth in 2020 Q1, but outbreak of the Coronavirus poses a major threat to the economic outlook
Main points
The UK economy remains on course to grow by 0.2% in first quarter of 2020 (figure1.)
According to new ONS statistics published this morning, the UK...
Publication date: 11 Feb 2020
| Publication type: NIESR GDP Tracker
| Theme: Macroeconomics
UK Economy to grow again in 2020 Q1
Please find the full commentary in the attachment
Publication date: 13 Jan 2020
| Publication type: NIESR GDP Tracker
UK Output Stagnated at end of 2019
Main points
The UK economy is on course to post zero growth in the fourth quarter of 2019, consistent with growth of 1.4 per cent in 2019 as a whole. On the basis of recent trends we tentatively forecast service sector-driven growth of 0.3...
Publication date: 10 Dec 2019
| Publication type: NIESR GDP Tracker
| Theme: Macroeconomics
Growth Petering Out at End of Year
Please find the full commentary in the attachment
Publication date: 11 Nov 2019
| Publication type: NIESR GDP Tracker
| Theme: Macroeconomics
Output Stagnating After Mid-Year Rebound
Please find the full commentary in the attachment
Publication date: 10 Oct 2019
| Publication type: NIESR GDP Tracker
GDP DATA BETTER THAN EXPECTED
Figure 1 - UK GDP growth (3 months on previous 3 months, per cent)
Please find the full commentary in attachment
Publication date: 9 Sep 2019
| Publication type: NIESR GDP Tracker
Economic growth resumes for now
Figure 1 - UK GDP growth (3 months on previous 3 months, per cent)
Please find the full commentary in the attachment
Publication date: 9 Aug 2019
| Publication type: NIESR GDP Tracker
| Theme: Macroeconomics
Economic growth grinds to a halt
Please find the full commentary in the attachment
Publication date: 10 Jul 2019
| Publication type: NIESR GDP Tracker
| Theme: Macroeconomics
UK economy narrowly avoids recession
Please find the full commentary in attachment.
Publication date: 10 Jun 2019
| Publication type: NIESR GDP Tracker
UK economy slows as stockpiling boost fades
Please find the full commentary in attachment.
Publication date: 10 May 2019
| Publication type: NIESR GDP Tracker
UK economy boosted by temporary factors in first quarter of 2019
Please find the full commentary in attachment.
Publication date: 10 Apr 2019
| Publication type: NIESR GDP Tracker
| Theme: Macroeconomics
The UK economy is on course to grow by 0.4% in the first quarter of 2019.
Main points
The UK economy is on course to grow by 0.4% in the first quarter of 2019 and, if current trends continue, by 0.3% in the second quarter (figure 1).
According to new ONS statistics published this morning...
Publication date: 12 Mar 2019
| Publication type: NIESR GDP Tracker
The UK economic growth continues at slow pace and is expected to grow by 0.2% in the first quarter of 2019, the same pace as in the fourth quarter of last year.
Main points
The UK economy is on course to grow by 0.2% in the first quarter of 2019, the same pace as in the fourth quarter of...
Publication date: 11 Feb 2019
| Publication type: NIESR GDP Tracker
Latest economic data confirms that the UK economy lost momentum in the final quarter of 2018, with quarterly growth of 0.2%. GDP growth is set remain weak in the first quarter of this year.
Main points
Latest economic data confirms that the UK economy lost momentum in the final quarter of...
Publication date: 11 Jan 2019
| Publication type: NIESR GDP Tracker
UK GDP growth is set to slow to a quarterly rate of 0.3% in 2018Q4 from 0.6% in the previous quarter but a modest recovery is expected in 2019Q1
Main points
UK economic growth looks set to slow to a quarterly rate of 0.3% in the fourth quarter of 2018 from 0.6% in the third quarter. ...
Publication date: 10 Dec 2018
| Publication type: NIESR GDP Tracker
Our monthly GDP Tracker suggests that UK economic growth is set to slow to a quarterly rate of 0.4% in the fourth quarter of 2018 from 0.6% in the third quarter
Main points
UK economic growth looks set to slow to a quarterly rate of 0.4% in the fourth quarter of 2018 from 0.6% in the...
Publication date: 9 Nov 2018
| Publication type: NIESR GDP Tracker
Our monthly GDP Tracker suggests that the economy will expand by 0.4 per cent in the three months to October and by 0.4 per cent in the final quarter of this year.
Main points
In our view, UK economic growth peaked in the third quarter of this year and will settle at a rate that is...
Publication date: 10 Oct 2018
| Publication type: NIESR GDP Tracker
| Theme: Macroeconomics
Our monthly GDP Tracker suggests that the economy will expand by 0.7 per cent in the third quarter of 2018 and by 0.5 per cent in the final quarter of this year.
Figure 1: UK GDP growth (3 months on previous 3 months, per cent)
Main points
Latest economic data confirms that the UK economy...
Publication date: 10 Sep 2018
| Publication type: NIESR GDP Tracker
| Theme: Macroeconomics
UK economic growth gathers momentum
Main points
Latest economic data confirms that the UK economy has recovered from a soft patch earlier in the year and is now growing at a pace that is above potential.
According to new ONS statistics published this morning, the UK economy expanded by...
Publication date: 10 Aug 2018
| Publication type: NIESR GDP Tracker
| Theme: Macroeconomics
UK economic growth back on track
Main points
Latest economic data confirms that the UK economy has recovered from a soft patch earlier in the year and is now growing at a pace that is at or slightly above potential.
According to new ONS statistics published this morning, the UK economy expanded...
Publication date: 10 Jul 2018
| Publication type: NIESR GDP Tracker
Our GDP Tracker indicates growth of 0.4 per cent in 2018 Q2 and 0.5 per cent in 2018 Q3
