Publications
Publication date: 14 Sep 2021
| Publication type: NIESR Wage Tracker
Figure 1 - The U-shaped recovery in the labour market (source: ONS, HMRC)
Main points
The labour market shows signs of a U-shaped recovery, with the number of payrolled employees returning in August to its pre-pandemic (February 2020) level of 29.1 million.
Employment growth is fastest in...
Publication date: 17 Aug 2021
| Publication type: NIESR Wage Tracker
The U-shape recovery of the labour market
Main points
The labour market recovery is in a U shape, with the number of payrolled employees higher than in April 2020 and the number of vacancies at a record high of 953,000.
A robust growth of labour demand and limited candidate availability are...
Publication date: 15 Jul 2021
| Publication type: NIESR Wage Tracker
Underlying wage growth accelerates to 3.8% because of labour shortages in some sectors
Main points
A strong growth of labour demand and limited candidate availability is creating temporary labour shortages in some sectors like health and social services.
Vacancies reached a record 862,000....
Publication date: 15 Jun 2021
| Publication type: NIESR Wage Tracker
Temporary rise in average wages, but underlying wage growth to stay around 2½ per cent
Main points
The labour market is continuing to recover from the pandemic, with employment, vacancies and wages all increasing. The recovery driven by improved confidence and the reopening of sectors of the...
Publication date: 18 May 2021
| Publication type: NIESR Wage Tracker
No sign of persistent wage inflation despite lower unemployment and higher vacancies
Main points
NIESR’s wage tracker predicts that average weekly earnings growth will be 5.3 per cent in the second quarter of 2021, after 4.0 per cent in the first quarter. The increase is explained by both...
Publication date: 20 Apr 2021
| Publication type: NIESR Wage Tracker
The economy created more jobs than it lost during the third national lockdown
Main points
NIESR’s wage tracker predicts that average weekly earnings growth will grow at 5.2% in the second quarter of 2021, after increasing by 4.5% in the three months to February. Forecasts for private and public...
Publication date: 23 Mar 2021
| Publication type: NIESR Wage Tracker
The vaccination programme gives the first shots of hope to the labour market, but unemployment to trend up
Main points
NIESR’s wage tracker predicts that average weekly earnings growth will stay broadly unchanged at 4.8% in the first quarter of 2021, compared to 4.7% in the previous quarter.
The...
Publication date: 23 Feb 2021
| Publication type: NIESR Wage Tracker
Average pay growth to ease after a strong rise in the last quarter of 2020
Average weekly earnings (AWE) averaged 1.8 per cent in 2020, making it the lowest average earnings growth since 2014. The year was split between a sharp drop in the first half and a strong rebound in the second half.
The...
Publication date: 26 Jan 2021
| Publication type: NIESR Wage Tracker
Compositional effects push up average weekly earnings at the end of 2020
Main points
Pay growth ended 2020 better than it had started. Average weekly earnings including bonuses (AWE) among employees increased from 2.8% in October to 3.6% in November 2020.
The increase was driven by the...
Publication date: 15 Dec 2020
| Publication type: NIESR Wage Tracker
2020 shaping up to be the worst year for total pay growth since 2009
Main points
According to ONS statistics published this morning, average weekly earnings, including bonuses (AWE), were 2.7 per cent in the three months to October and 1.9 per cent in real terms in Great Britain.
Average pay...
Publication date: 10 Nov 2020
| Publication type: NIESR Wage Tracker
Recovery in average weekly earnings to stall despite hopes for a new vaccine
Main points
Annual growth in average weekly earnings, including bonuses, turned positive from -1.2 per cent in the second quarter to 1.3 per cent in the third quarter as employees returned to work from furlough...
Publication date: 13 Oct 2020
| Publication type: NIESR Wage Tracker
Covid-19 continues to suppress private sector pay
Main points
According to ONS statistics published this morning, average weekly earnings, including bonuses, were unchanged in the three months to August and declined by 0.8 per cent in real terms.
The construction sector was worst hit with pay...
Publication date: 15 Sep 2020
| Publication type: NIESR Wage Tracker
Private Sector Pay to Decline Further in Q3 as Employment Falls
Main points
According to new ONS statistics published this morning, average weekly earnings, including bonuses, declined at an annual rate of 1 per cent in the three months to July, or 1.8 per cent in real terms.
The construction...
Publication date: 11 Aug 2020
| Publication type: NIESR Wage Tracker
| Theme: Macroeconomics
Pay Growth Turns Negative
Main points
According to new ONS statistics published this morning, average weekly earnings, excluding bonuses, grew at an annual rate of -0.2 per cent in the three months to June, a fall of 0.8 per cent in real terms. When bonuses are included, total pay fell at an...
Publication date: 16 Jul 2020
| Publication type: NIESR Wage Tracker
Private Sector Pay Weakening as Pay Falls
Main points
According to new ONS statistics published this morning, average weekly earnings, excluding bonuses, grew at an annual rate of 0.7 per cent in the three months to May, or around zero in real terms.
More up to data information from HMRC’s...
Publication date: 16 Jun 2020
| Publication type: NIESR Wage Tracker
| Theme: Macroeconomics
Sharp Drop in Pay Growth as a Result of Covid-19
Main points
The first signs of the COVID-19 impact on the labour market are fewer vacancies, more universal credit claims and lower pay growth.
According to new ONS statistics published this morning, UK average weekly earnings expanded by 1.7 per...
Publication date: 19 May 2020
| Publication type: NIESR Wage Tracker
First Signs of Severe Labour Market Impact of Covid-19
Main Points
Official labour market statistics are mainly lagging indicators and are only just beginning to show the impact of Covid-19 which started to affect the UK economy from around the middle of March.
According to new ONS statistics...
Publication date: 21 Apr 2020
| Publication type: NIESR Wage Tracker
Wage Growth to Slow Further
Main points
According to new ONS statistics published this morning, UK average weekly earnings expanded by 2.9 per cent excluding bonuses in the three months to February 2020 compared to the year before, and by 2.8 per cent if bonus payments are taken into account....
Publication date: 17 Mar 2020
| Publication type: NIESR Wage Tracker
Wage Growth Likely to be Hit by the Covid-19 Outbreak
Figure 1 – Average weekly earnings growth (per cent per annum)
Main points
According to new ONS statistics published this morning, UK average weekly earnings expanded by 3.1 per cent excluding bonuses in the three months to January 2020...
Publication date: 18 Feb 2020
| Publication type: NIESR Wage Tracker
Slight rebound expected for earnings growth
Main points
According to new ONS statistics published this morning, UK average weekly earnings (AWE) expanded by 3.2 per cent excluding bonuses in the three months to December 2019 compared to the year before, and by 2.9 per cent if bonus payments are...
Publication date: 21 Jan 2020
| Publication type: NIESR Wage Tracker
Real pay growth to strengthen at start of 2020
Figure 1 - Average weekly earnings growth (per cent per annum)
Main points
According to new ONS statistics published this morning, UK average weekly earnings (AWE) expanded by 3.4 per cent excluding bonuses in the three months to November...
Publication date: 17 Dec 2019
| Publication type: NIESR Wage Tracker
Year Ends With Softer Pay Growth
Main points
According to new ONS statistics published this morning, UK average weekly earnings (AWE) expanded by 3.5 per cent excluding bonuses in the three months to October compared to the year before (figure 1).
Total earnings growth including bonuses was 3.2...
Publication date: 12 Nov 2019
| Publication type: NIESR Wage Tracker
| Theme: Macroeconomics
Uncertainty Taking Toll on Labour Market
Main points
According to new ONS statistics published this morning, UK average weekly earnings (AWE) expanded by 3.6 per cent (excluding and including bonuses) in the three months to September compared to the year before (figure 1).
With CPI inflation at 1...
Publication date: 15 Oct 2019
| Publication type: NIESR Wage Tracker
| Theme: Macroeconomics
Labour market weathering an increasingly difficult economic environment
Main points
According to new ONS statistics published this morning, UK average weekly earnings (AWE) expanded by 3.8 per cent (excluding and including bonuses) in the three months to August compared to the year before (...
Publication date: 10 Sep 2019
| Publication type: NIESR Wage Tracker
Strong earnings data driven by July bonuses and public sector pay but further pick-up unlikely
Figure 1 – Average weekly earnings growth (per cent per annum)
Main points
According to new ONS statistics published this morning, UK average weekly earnings (AWE) expanded by 3.8 per cent...
Publication date: 13 Aug 2019
| Publication type: NIESR Wage Tracker
Real Earnings Growth Returns to Pre-Referendum Rates but is Unlikely to Pick Up Any Further in the Near Term
Main Points
According to new ONS statistics published this morning, UK average weekly earnings (AWE) expanded by 3.9 per cent excluding bonuses (3.7 per cent including bonuses) in the...
Publication date: 16 Jul 2019
| Publication type: NIESR Wage Tracker
Pay growth at 11-year high but further acceleration unlikely
Figure 1: Average Weekly Earnings (3 months average year on year growth, per cent)
Source: NIESR, ONS.
Main points
According to new ONS statistics published this morning, UK average weekly earnings (AWE) expanded by 3.6 per cent...
Publication date: 11 Jun 2019
| Publication type: NIESR Wage Tracker
Public sector earnings growth provides a temporary boost to whole-economy wages
Main points
According to new ONS statistics published this morning, UK average weekly earnings (AWE) expanded by 3.1 per cent including bonuses (3.4 per cent excluding bonuses) in the three months to April...
Publication date: 14 May 2019
| Publication type: NIESR Wage Tracker
Nominal pay growth dips temporarily but is expected to stabilise at around 3½ per cent in the second quarter of 2019
Main points
According to new ONS statistics published this morning, UK average weekly earnings (AWE) expanded by 3.2 per cent including bonuses (3.3 per cent excluding...
Publication date: 16 Apr 2019
| Publication type: NIESR Wage Tracker
Pay growth stabilises amidst a tight labour market and Brexit uncertainty
Main points
According to new ONS statistics published this morning, UK average weekly earnings (AWE) expanded by 3.5 per cent including bonuses (3.4 per cent excluding bonuses) in the three months to February...
Publication date: 19 Mar 2019
| Publication type: NIESR Wage Tracker
Pay growth appears to be stabilising at around 3½ per cent per annum
Main points
According to new ONS statistics published this morning, UK average weekly earnings (AWE) expanded by 3.4 per cent (including and excluding bonuses) in the three months to January compared to the year before...
Publication date: 19 Feb 2019
| Publication type: NIESR Wage Tracker
Nominal pay growing at fastest rate for a decade, but expected to stabilise in short term
Main points
According to new ONS statistics published this morning, UK average weekly earnings (AWE) expanded by 3.4 per cent (including and excluding bonuses) in the three months to December compared...
