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  • Annual Report (24)
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Publications

NIESR CPI Tracker - March 2020
Publication date: 25 Mar 2020 | Publication type: NIESR CPI Tracker | NIESR Author(s): Boshoff, J
CPI Inflation Stabilises The consumer price index inflation rate decreased by 0.1 percentage points to 1.7 per cent in the year to February 2020, as per data released by the ONS. Our new analysis of 128,677 locally collected goods and services indicates that inflation in the housing and household...
NIESR Wage Tracker - March 2020
Publication date: 17 Mar 2020 | Publication type: NIESR Wage Tracker | NIESR Author(s): Lenoel, C
Wage Growth Likely to be Hit by the Covid-19 Outbreak​   Figure 1 – Average weekly earnings growth (per cent per annum) Main points According to new ONS statistics published this morning, UK average weekly earnings expanded by 3.1 per cent excluding bonuses in the three months to January 2020...
Brexit and the Euro
Publication date: 12 Mar 2020 | Publication type: NIESR Discussion Paper | Theme: Macroeconomics, Exiting the EU & Britain after Brexit | NIESR Author(s): Macchiarelli, C | External Author(s): Campos, N F | JEL Classification: E32, E63, F02 | NIESR discussion paper number: 512
The year 2019 marked the 20th anniversary of the establishment of the Euro.  It was also the last full year before the UK formally left the European Union. This paper examines the relationship between the UK and the euro area. We look at the economic distance between core and periphery groups of...
A Switch to Active Fiscal Policy: NIESR Response to Budget 2020
Publication date: 11 Mar 2020 | Publication type: Other | NIESR Author(s): Chadha, J S, Dolton, P, Manzoni, C, Mao, X, Nguyen, D, Runge, J, Whyte, K, Young, G
On Wednesday 11th March 2020, Chancellor Rishi Sunak delivered his first Budget only 27 days after being appointed. The Chancellor delivered this first, post-Brexit Budget for this Government, which has a strong mandate after its comprehensive election victory in December that should be strong...
A Switch to Active Fiscal Policy: NIESR Response to Budget 2020
Publication date: 11 Mar 2020 | Publication type: Policy Paper | NIESR Author(s): Chadha, J S, Dolton, P, Manzoni, C, Mao, X, Nguyen, D, Runge, J, Whyte, K, Young, G
On Wednesday 11th March 2020, Chancellor Rishi Sunak delivered his first Budget only 27 days after being appointed. The Chancellor delivered this first, post-Brexit Budget for this Government, which has a strong mandate after its comprehensive election victory in December that should be strong...
March 2020 GDP Tracker
Publication date: 11 Mar 2020 | Publication type: NIESR GDP Tracker | NIESR Author(s): Whyte, K
UK remains on course for 0.2 per cent growth in 2020 Q1, but outbreak of the Coronavirus poses a major threat to the economic outlook Main points The UK economy remains on course to grow by 0.2% in first quarter of 2020 (figure1.) According to new ONS statistics published this morning, the UK...
Which skills contribute most to absorptive capacity, innovation, and productivity performance? Evidence from the US and Western Europe
Publication date: 7 Mar 2020 | Publication type: Journal article/book/chapter | NIESR Author(s): Rincon-Aznar, A, Mason, G | Journal: Economics of Innovation and New Technology No. 29 Vol. 3 | Pages: 223-241
Can Budget 2020 Deliver Growth?
Publication date: 5 Mar 2020 | Publication type: Other | NIESR Author(s): Hantzsche, A, Young, G
  On Wednesday 11th March, Chancellor Rishi Sunak will deliver his first Budget only 27 days after being appointed. The Chancellor will deliver his Budget as part of a Government with a strong mandate after its comprehensive election victory in December. We can therefore expect him to use this...
The dynamics of public and private sector wages, pay settlements and employment
Publication date: 2 Mar 2020 | Publication type: Report | NIESR Author(s): Dolton, P, Hantzsche, A, Kara, A | Report to: Office of Manpower Economics
This report addresses the important question of how wage growth in the United Kingdom is determined in the long run and whether wage decisions in the public sector can have spillover effects into the private sector. To analyse these questions, we construct a unique new dataset that is made up of...
URLEY (Using Research Tools to Improve Language in the Early Years) Evaluation Report
Publication date: 26 Feb 2020 | Publication type: Report | Theme: Employment & Social policy | NIESR Author(s): Stokes, L, Runge, J, Dorsett, R | External Author(s): Wright, H, Carr, D, Wiese, J, Heal, J, Anders, K | Project: Evaluation of URLEY (Using Research Tools to Improve Language in the Early Years) | Report to: Education Endowment Foundation
The URLEY (Using Research Tools to Improve Language in the Early Years) programme trains early years teachers to improve children’s language and social-behavioural outcomes in Nursery and Reception Year (ages 3 to 5). Teachers take part in 5 day-long professional development workshops in which they...
NIESR CPI Tracker - February 2020
Publication date: 19 Feb 2020 | Publication type: NIESR CPI Tracker | NIESR Author(s): Boshoff, J
CPI Inflation accelerated in new year as expected The consumer price index inflation rate increased to 1.8 per cent in the year to January 2020, as per data released by the ONS. Our new analysis of 130,278 locally collected goods and services indicates that inflation in the housing and household...
NIESR Wage Tracker - February 2020
Publication date: 18 Feb 2020 | Publication type: NIESR Wage Tracker | NIESR Author(s): Lenoel, C
Slight rebound expected for earnings growth Main points According to new ONS statistics published this morning, UK average weekly earnings (AWE) expanded by 3.2 per cent excluding bonuses in the three months to December 2019 compared to the year before, and by 2.9 per cent if bonus payments are...
February 2020 GDP Tracker
Publication date: 11 Feb 2020 | Publication type: NIESR GDP Tracker | Theme: Macroeconomics | NIESR Author(s): Whyte, K
UK Economy to grow again in 2020 Q1 Please find the full commentary in the attachment
Prospects for the UK economy: Forecast Summary
Publication date: 6 Feb 2020 | Publication type: National Institute Economic Review | Theme: Macroeconomics | NIESR Author(s): Hantzsche, A, Young, G | Journal: National Institute Economic Review Issue 251 | Publisher: Cambridge University Press
The decisive result of the general election has reduced political uncertainty, but elevated economic uncertainty is likely to persist until the details of the UK’s future trade relationship with the EU are settled. The March Budget is expected to be focused on ‘levelling up’ income levels across...
World overview: Forecast summary
Publication date: 6 Feb 2020 | Publication type: National Institute Economic Review | Theme: Macroeconomics | NIESR Author(s): Naisbitt, B, Boshoff, J, Hurst, I, Kara, A, Lenoel, C, Liadze, I, Mao, X, Thamotheram, C, Whyte, K | Journal: National Institute Economic Review Issue 251 | Publisher: Cambridge University Press
Global economic growth slowed again last year as increases in tariffs and uncertainty about future tariff impositions and their implications for production activity continued to have negative effects on industrial production, especially in the advanced economies, and global trade. With a weaker...
Stranded Assets and Sovereign States
Publication date: 6 Feb 2020 | Publication type: National Institute Economic Review | External Author(s): Jaffe, A M | JEL Classification: Q35, Q55, L1 | Journal: National Institute Economic Review Issue 251 | Publisher: Cambridge University Press
There is evidence that the risk of stranded assets in the oil and gas sector is underpriced in financial markets. Publicly traded Western oil and gas companies are starting to write down assets, opening up the possibility that more rationalisation of value is likely to come. To the extent that...
The Changing Role of Carbon Pricing in the EU
Publication date: 6 Feb 2020 | Publication type: National Institute Economic Review | External Author(s): Elkerbout, M | JEL Classification: P48, Q54, Q58, L52, F53 | Journal: National Institute Economic Review Issue 251 | Publisher: Cambridge University Press
Carbon pricing has been the most prominent climate change mitigation policy for the EU since the launch of its emissions trading system (ETS) in 2005. Since then, the context of international climate policy as well as of the socio-political and economical context of decarbonisation has changed...
India in the Coming ‘Climate G2’?
Publication date: 6 Feb 2020 | Publication type: National Institute Economic Review | External Author(s): Camuzeaux, J, Sterner, T, Wagner, G | JEL Classification: Q5, F5 | Journal: National Institute Economic Review Issue 251 | Publisher: Cambridge University Press
China and the United States are the two largest emitters of greenhouse gases, making them pivotal players in global climate negotiations. Within the coming decade, however, India is set to become the most important counterpart to the United States, as it overtakes China as the country with the most...
Introduction: The Economic Implications of Climate Change Mitigaton Policies
Publication date: 6 Feb 2020 | Publication type: National Institute Economic Review | NIESR Author(s): Holland, D, Young, G | Journal: National Institute Economic Review Issue 251 | Publisher: Cambridge University Press
The articles in this issue of the Review highlight some of the economic issues involved in acting to cut greenhouse gas emissions to a level consistent with the ambition to limit global temperature increases. Together they help explain why progress in tackling this “urgent problem”is likely to be...
Does intellectual property rights protection constitute a barrier to renewable energy? An econometric analysis
Publication date: 6 Feb 2020 | Publication type: National Institute Economic Review | External Author(s): Li, J, Omoju, O E, Zhang, J, Ikhide, E E, Lu, G, Lawal, A I, Ozue, V A | JEL Classification: O34, Q42, Q55, C23 | Journal: National Institute Economic Review Issue 251 | Publisher: Cambridge University Press
This study uses an econometric approach to investigate the role of IPR protection on renewable energy adoption using panel data of 102 countries at five-year intervals over the period 1990–2005. The Ginarte-Park index is used as a measure of the strength of intellectual property protection while...
Is the UK Productivity Slowdown Unprecedented?
Publication date: 6 Feb 2020 | Publication type: National Institute Economic Review | Theme: Trade, Investment & Productivity | External Author(s): Crafts, N, Mills, T C | JEL Classification: C22, N13, N14, O47 | Journal: National Institute Economic Review Issue 251 | Publisher: Cambridge University Press
We estimate trend UK labour productivity growth using a Hodrick-Prescott filter method. We use the results to compare downturns where the economy fell below its pre-existing trend. We find that the current productivity slowdown has resulted in productivity being 19.7 per cent below the pre-2008...
The effects of the trade war on inflation
Publication date: 4 Feb 2020 | Publication type: Economic Review Preview | NIESR Author(s): Naisbitt, B, Whyte, K
  This is a preview from the National Institute Economic Review, February 2020, no 251. In the past two months some of the uncertainties around the trade war between the US and China have settled. The negotiations between the US and China have culminated in the Phase One agreement, which was signed...
NIESR Annual Report 2019
Publication date: 3 Feb 2020 | Publication type: Annual Report
Contents Reference and administrative information  Trustees’ report  Trustees’ responsibilities Independent auditor's report  Consolidated statement of financial activities  Consolidated and charity balance sheet  Consolidated statement of cash flows  Notes to the financial statements 
NIESR Wage Tracker - January 2020
Publication date: 21 Jan 2020 | Publication type: NIESR Wage Tracker | NIESR Author(s): Hantzsche, A
  Real pay growth to strengthen at start of 2020​   Figure 1 - Average weekly earnings growth (per cent per annum)   Main points According to new ONS statistics published this morning, UK average weekly earnings (AWE) expanded by 3.4 per cent excluding bonuses in the three months to November...
NIESR CPI Tracker - January 2020
Publication date: 15 Jan 2020 | Publication type: NIESR CPI Tracker | NIESR Author(s): Boshoff, J
The consumer price index inflation rate declined to 1.3 per cent in the year to December 2019, as per data released by the ONS. Our new analysis of 129,516 locally-collected goods and services indicate that inflation in the restaurants and hotels and clothing and footwear categories decreased in...
January 2020 GDP Tracker
Publication date: 13 Jan 2020 | Publication type: NIESR GDP Tracker | NIESR Author(s): Young, G
UK Output Stagnated at end of 2019                       Main points The UK economy is on course to post zero growth in the fourth quarter of 2019, consistent with growth of 1.4 per cent in 2019 as a whole.  On the basis of recent trends we tentatively forecast service sector-driven growth of 0.3...
NIESR CPI Tracker - December 2019
Publication date: 18 Dec 2019 | Publication type: NIESR CPI Tracker | NIESR Author(s): Boshoff, J
  According to figures released this morning by the ONS, consumer price index inflation decreased to 1.5 per cent in the year to October 2019. Our new analysis of 129,752 locally-collected goods and services prices suggest that consumers benefitted from changes to the energy price cap. Furthermore...
NIESR Wage Tracker - December 2019
Publication date: 17 Dec 2019 | Publication type: NIESR Wage Tracker | NIESR Author(s): Hantzsche, A
Year Ends With Softer Pay Growth Main points According to new ONS statistics published this morning, UK average weekly earnings (AWE) expanded by 3.5 per cent excluding bonuses in the three months to October compared to the year before (figure 1). Total earnings growth including bonuses was 3.2...
December 2019 GDP Tracker
Publication date: 10 Dec 2019 | Publication type: NIESR GDP Tracker | Theme: Macroeconomics | NIESR Author(s): Young, G
Growth Petering Out at End of Year Please find the full commentary in the attachment
UK General Election Analysis 2019
Publication date: 9 Dec 2019 | Publication type: General Election Briefing | NIESR Author(s): Chadha, J S, Hantzsche, A, Young, G, Aitken, A, Hudson-Sharp, N, Runge, J, Boshoff, J, Espinoza, H, Lisauskaite, E, Speckesser, S, Xu, L, Nguyen, D, Rincon-Aznar, A, Stochino, A, Kara, A, Mao, X, Manzoni, C
Foreward In this election campaign we are seeing the consequences of the Brexit impasse across a raft of policy areas.  With infrastructure and investment expenditures continuing to be deferred, we are seeing a rash of spending promises to placate a disillusioned electorate.  But what we continue...
The Macroeconomics of Parties' Tax and Spending Plans
Publication date: 6 Dec 2019 | Publication type: General Election Briefing | Theme: Macroeconomics | NIESR Author(s): Hantzsche, A, Young, G
Most economic analyses of parties’ tax and spending promises treat the government’s budget like that of a household, ignoring the impact of proposed policies on the economy.  This briefing aims to fill this gap by providing a macroeconomic assessment of announced fiscal policies. It focuses on:...
Past, Present and Future of Immigration
Publication date: 6 Dec 2019 | Publication type: General Election Briefing | NIESR Author(s): Aitken, A, Manzoni, C, Runge, J
Immigration was one of the main issues around the UK’s decision to leave the EU. The outcome of the General Election is likely to determine the design of a future immigration system, with party proposals ranging from the introduction of a post-Brexit “Australian-style” points system, to continuing...
UK Trade and Trade Policy after Brexit
Publication date: 5 Dec 2019 | Publication type: General Election Briefing | NIESR Author(s): Kara, A, Mao, X, Rincon-Aznar, A
International trade plays a crucial role in fostering economic growth across a wide range of industries at the national and the regional level. The prospects for UK’s international trade are closely tied to the future relationship between the UK and the EU. Voters are being offered a wide spectrum...
The Economic Backdrop
Publication date: 3 Dec 2019 | Publication type: General Election Briefing | NIESR Author(s): Young, G
This briefing focuses on: The state of the UK economy and UK-wide living standards going into the election. The causes of slow growth and the need for supply-side reforms.   Visit our General Election 2019 site  
Places and Spaces: Mapping Britain's Regional Divides
Publication date: 2 Dec 2019 | Publication type: General Election Briefing | NIESR Author(s): Aitken, A, Boshoff, J, Nguyen, D, Rincon-Aznar, A, Stochino, A
Economic performance varies widely across towns, cities and rural areas in the UK. Spatial disparities are found in all industrialised countries, although on some measures the UK is significantly more unequal than comparable countries. These disparities are matter for people because local social...
Upstream regulation, Factor demand and Productivity: Cross-industry differences in OECD countries, 1975-2007
Publication date: 1 Dec 2019 | NIESR Author(s): Rincon-Aznar, A | External Author(s): Igna, I.A. | Journal: Information Economics and Policy No. 49 | Publisher: Elsevier, Oxford
Where is the money coming from?
Publication date: 29 Nov 2019 | Publication type: General Election Briefing | NIESR Author(s): Hantzsche, A, Young, G
The main political parties have meticulously set out costings of their spending plans for the next Parliament and how they would finance them if elected.  This briefing focuses on: The fiscal rules adopted by the political parties. The underlying fiscal position and how it has changed since the...
The Fiscal Rules
Publication date: 29 Nov 2019 | Publication type: General Election Briefing | NIESR Author(s): Chadha, J S
The election campaign has focussed on the tax and spending plans of the main political parties, this brief outlines: The case for fiscal rules as part of the country’s strategy of macroeconomic management. The need for comprehensive reform of the process of setting fiscal policy. This brief...
Education policy priorities and a look into the Manifestos
Publication date: 27 Nov 2019 | Publication type: General Election Briefing | Theme: Education & Labour | NIESR Author(s): Boshoff, J, Espinoza, H, Lisauskaite, E, Speckesser, S, Xu, L
Overview Labour, Conservatives and Lib Dems have all pledged to increase the education budget. But we ask, from early years via schools to further and higher education: What can be done to make the education system more effective and fairer? How can outcomes across different levels of education be...
The Future Path of The Minimum Wage
Publication date: 26 Nov 2019 | Publication type: General Election Briefing | NIESR Author(s): Aitken, A, Hudson-Sharp, N, Runge, J
Labour and the Conservatives both plan historically high increases to the UK minimum wage, aiming to use the minimum wage as an important tool in raising living standards. This briefing focuses on: The current minimum wage structure and how the rates are determined; The future path of the National...
The Economic and Fiscal Impact of Brexit
Publication date: 25 Nov 2019 | Publication type: General Election Briefing | Theme: Macroeconomics | NIESR Author(s): Hantzsche, A, Young, G
Brexit dominates political debate and divides opinion.  The main political parties have different positions on this issue, ranging from cancelling Brexit (Liberal Democrats) to seeking a ‘clean-break’ (Brexit Party). The Prime Minster wants to ‘get Brexit done’ on the terms of the deal negotiated...
Summary of the NIESR Business Conditions Forum November 2019 - International Trade
Publication date: 22 Nov 2019 | Publication type: Business Conditions Forum Summary | Theme: Macroeconomics
  International Trade The meeting discussed latest trends in international trade. The discussions were centred around the following five questions: 1. How much has global trade slowed? 2. Is the slowdown structural? 3. What are the effects from China-US tariffs on UK? 4. What risks arise from the...
NIESR CPI Tracker - November 2019
Publication date: 13 Nov 2019 | Publication type: NIESR CPI Tracker | Theme: Macroeconomics | NIESR Author(s): Boshoff, J
Change to Energy Price Caps Impacts Inflation According to figures released this morning by the ONS, consumer price index inflation decreased to 1.5 per cent in the year to October 2019. Our new analysis of 129,752 locally-collected goods and services prices suggest that consumers benefitted from...
NIESR Wage Tracker - November 2019
Publication date: 12 Nov 2019 | Publication type: NIESR Wage Tracker | Theme: Macroeconomics | NIESR Author(s): Hantzsche, A
Uncertainty Taking Toll on Labour Market Main points According to new ONS statistics published this morning, UK average weekly earnings (AWE) expanded by 3.6 per cent (excluding and including bonuses) in the three months to September compared to the year before (figure 1). With CPI inflation at 1...
November 2019 GDP Tracker
Publication date: 11 Nov 2019 | Publication type: NIESR GDP Tracker | Theme: Macroeconomics | NIESR Author(s): Young, G
Output Stagnating After Mid-Year Rebound Please find the full commentary in the attachment
NIESR Briefing: Youth Rates: The National Minimum Wage for Younger Workers
Publication date: 5 Nov 2019 | Publication type: Topical Briefing | Theme: Employment & Social policy | NIESR Author(s): Hudson-Sharp, N, Manzoni, C, Runge, J
When advising government, the LPC’s main objective in setting the Youth Rates is: "to ensure that the NMW’s structure and the level of the youth rates enables young people   to make a successful transition from education to employment, and to access roles which   provide them with the work...
Understanding employers’ use of the National Minimum Wage youth rates
Publication date: 4 Nov 2019 | Publication type: Report | Theme: Employment & Social policy | NIESR Author(s): Hudson-Sharp, N, Manzoni, C, Runge, J | External Author(s): Rolfe, H | Report to: Low Pay Commission
Right from their inception the minimum wage rates have included age-related bands intended to give young people protection in the labour market. Initially there were only two age bands, 18-21 and 22+. With the introduction of the National Living Wage in 2016 there are now four age bands and an...
National Institute Economic Review 250th Edition - Table of Contents
Publication date: 30 Oct 2019 | Publication type: National Institute Economic Review | Journal: National Institute Economic Review Issue 250 | Publisher: Sage Publications, London
Forecast Summaries The UK Economy: Forecast Summary The UK Economy Prospects for the UK Economy Arno Hantzsche and Garry Young Forecast Summaries The World Economy: Forecast Summary The UK Economy The Economic Impact of Prime Minister Johnson's New Brexit Deal Arno...
Beyond Brexit: a programme for UK reform
Publication date: 30 Oct 2019 | Publication type: National Institute Economic Review | Theme: Macroeconomics | NIESR Author(s): Chadha, J S | Journal: National Institute Economic Review Issue 250 | Publisher: Sage Publications, London
We not only live in interesting times but also dangerous ones. The weaknesses of the post-war consensus on macroeconomic control was laid bare by Dow’s (1964) magisterial analysis and the subsequent implosion of demand management in the 1970s (see Blackaby, 1978; and Britton, 1991). It is becoming...
Introduction to National Institute Economic Review no 250
Publication date: 30 Oct 2019 | Publication type: National Institute Economic Review | Theme: Macroeconomics, Exiting the EU & Britain after Brexit | NIESR Author(s): Bidder, R | External Author(s): Llewellyn, J, Greenstock, J, Jones, R, Gowers, A, Llewellyn, P, Greenstock, N, Holtham, G, Scuoler, T | Journal: National Institute Economic Review Issue 250 | Publisher: Sage Publications, London
Regardless of the particular form that Brexit ultimately takes, the UK faces an unprecedented set of political, economic, and social challenges. While the causes are many and complex, they amount to a crisis of confidence and popular trust that has overturned the normal logic of political practice...
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