Publications

Below the Aggregate: A Sectoral Account of the UK Productivity Puzzle

Publication date: 18 Oct 2019 | Publication type: NIESR Discussion Paper | Theme: Trade, Investment & Productivity | NIESR Author(s): Riley, R, Rincon-Aznar, A, Samek, L | JEL Classification: E22, E23, L60, L70, L80, L90, O47 | NIESR discussion paper number: 508

We analyse new industry-level data to re-examine the UK productivity puzzle. We carry out an accounting exercise that allows us to distinguish general macroeconomic patterns from sector trends and idiosyncrasies, providing a roadmap for anyone interested in explaining the puzzle. We focus on the UK...

The evolution of tax implicit value judgements, redistribution and income inequality in the UK: 1968 to 2015

An issue of interest in the literature that explores the drivers of inequality is the distributional bearing of tax and transfer policy, where an important theme concerns changes in the relative treatment of alternative population subgroups. We develop an empirical approach for quantifying the...

A Century of High Frequency UK Macroeconomic Statistics: A Data Inventory

This paper provides an inventory of the available macroeconomic statistics in the UK for the last hundred years or so. The focus is on documenting the higher frequency (daily, monthly and quarterly) macroeconomic data that are available after the World War 1, rather than longer run annual time...

NIESR Wage Tracker - October 2019

Publication date: 15 Oct 2019 | Publication type: NIESR Wage Tracker | Theme: Macroeconomics

Labour market weathering an increasingly difficult economic environment Main points According to new ONS statistics published this morning, UK average weekly earnings (AWE) expanded by 3.8 per cent (excluding and including bonuses) in the three months to August compared to the year before (figure...

Renewing our Monetary Vows: Open Letters to the Governor of the Bank of England

Publication date: 15 Oct 2019 | Publication type: NIESR Occasional Paper | NIESR Author(s): Chadha, J S, Riley, R | External Author(s): Barwell, R, Yates, T, Ward, K, Pill, H, Mares, A, Grady, M, Groth, C, Nelson, B, Giles, C, Mizen, P Issue 58 | Publisher: NIESR, London

Please see table of contents here You can download the mobi file here for use on a Kindle; the pdf can be saved and read on an iPad using the iBooks app. To order a paperback copy, please see here. Over the past 20 years, considerable progress has been made in the science of monetary policy. This...

October 2019 GDP Tracker

Publication date: 10 Oct 2019 | Publication type: NIESR GDP Tracker | NIESR Author(s): Young, G

GDP DATA BETTER THAN EXPECTED Figure 1 - UK GDP growth (3 months on previous 3 months, per cent) Please find the full commentary in attachment

Total Reward and Pensions in the UK by Occupation in the Public and Private Sectors

Over the last 10 years the relative value of public and private sector remuneration packages, including pensions, has changed markedly. This report reviews a comprehensive measure of Total Reward (TR) which includes not just pay, but pensions and other ‘benefits in kind’, evaluates it as the...

NIESR Occasional Papers, 1942-2004

Publication date: 2 Oct 2019 | Publication type: NIESR Occasional Paper

From 1942 to 2004, NIESR produced 57 Occasional Papers. Over the years, subjects covered pension reform, productivity, migration, education and more. On Tuesday 15th October 2019, we will be relaunching the series - watch this space! NIESR Occasional papers Number Year Author Title 1...

NIESR Briefing: Industry and Regional Effects of a No-Deal Brexit

Publication date: 12 Sep 2019 | Publication type: Topical Briefing | NIESR Author(s): Hantzsche, A

Ever since EU exit has started featuring in the public debate, NIESR has contributed analyses of the long-run economic impact of different types of Brexit, including the deal proposed by the government in November 2018, a customs union deal and no deal. Since the EU referendum, NIESR has...

NIESR Wage Tracker - September 2019

Publication date: 10 Sep 2019 | Publication type: NIESR Wage Tracker | NIESR Author(s): Hantzsche, A

Strong earnings data driven by July bonuses and public sector pay but further pick-up unlikely Figure 1 – Average weekly earnings growth (per cent per annum) Main points According to new ONS statistics published this morning, UK average weekly earnings (AWE) expanded by 3.8 per cent...

September 2019 GDP Tracker

Publication date: 9 Sep 2019 | Publication type: NIESR GDP Tracker | NIESR Author(s): Young, G

Economic growth resumes for now Figure 1 - UK GDP growth (3 months on previous 3 months, per cent) Please find the full commentary in the attachment

The macroeconomics of fiscal give-aways

Publication date: 2 Sep 2019 | Publication type: Economic Review Preview | Theme: Macroeconomics

In this box, which we published in our latest Review, NIER No. 249 August 2019, we evaluate the macroeconomic effects of expansionary fiscal policy measures on the UK economy. We consider two fiscal packages, one based on Labour Party policy and one based on some of the policies put forward...

Brexit assumptions and alternative scenarios

Publication date: 29 Aug 2019 | Publication type: Economic Review Preview | Theme: Exiting the EU & Britain after Brexit

This concise summary aims to illustrate the assumptions underpinning our view on the aggregate impact of a No-Deal Brexit on the UK economy, which we published in our latest Review, NIER No. 249 August 2019.

Summary of the NIESR Business Conditions Forum August 2019 – Is the labour market turning?

Publication date: 20 Aug 2019 | Publication type: Business Conditions Forum Summary | Theme: Macroeconomics | NIESR Author(s): Kara, A

National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) hosted the Business Conditions Forum (BCF) on 14th August. The aim of the BCF is to have informed and analytical discussions of data and surveys to better understand the current state of the UK economy. The discussions are held under...

NIESR Briefing: Overview of evidence on economic impacts of EU immigration

Publication date: 19 Aug 2019 | Publication type: Topical Briefing | Theme: Exiting the EU & Britain after Brexit | NIESR Author(s): Runge, J

As part of a research report on UK Public Attitudes to the Economic Impacts of EU Immigration, published by NIESR and Birkbeck, University of London, in October 2018, we reviewed the existing literature on the economic impacts of EU immigration. We have updated this with the most recent evidence...

NIESR Briefing: Overview of evidence on UK public attitudes to immigration

Publication date: 19 Aug 2019 | Publication type: Topical Briefing | Theme: Exiting the EU & Britain after Brexit | NIESR Author(s): Runge, J

OVERVIEW As part of a research report on UK Public Attitudes to Immigration, published by NIESR and Birkbeck, University of London, in October 2018, we reviewed the existing literature on the topic. We have updated this with the most recent evidence thanks to the support of the ESRC through its...

NIESR Wage Tracker - August 2019

Publication date: 13 Aug 2019 | Publication type: NIESR Wage Tracker | NIESR Author(s): Hantzsche, A

Real Earnings Growth Returns to Pre-Referendum Rates but is Unlikely to Pick Up Any Further in the Near Term Main Points According to new ONS statistics published this morning, UK average weekly earnings (AWE) expanded by 3.9 per cent excluding bonuses (3.7 per cent including bonuses) in the...

August 2019 GDP Tracker

Publication date: 9 Aug 2019 | Publication type: NIESR GDP Tracker | Theme: Macroeconomics | NIESR Author(s): Young, G

Economic growth grinds to a halt Please find the full commentary in the attachment

The Macroeconomics of Fiscal Give-Aways

Publication date: 5 Aug 2019 | Publication type: NiGEM Observations | Theme: Macroeconomics | NIESR Author(s): Hantzsche, A

Abstract: In this NiGEM Observation, we evaluate the macroeconomic effects of expansionary fiscal policy measures on the UK economy. We consider two fiscal packages, one based on Labour Party policy and one based on some of the policies put forward during the 2019 Conservative Party leadership...

The Employment Gap in the West Midlands

Publication date: 26 Jul 2019 | Publication type: Report | Theme: Education & Labour | NIESR Author(s): Speckesser, S

The Youth Jobs Gap research series uses previously unseen Longitudinal Education Outcomes data to present new insights into disadvantaged young people’s transition from compulsory education into employment. The first three national reports looked at NEET rates, higher education, and...

Commentary: Monetary and fiscal options in the event of a ‘No-Deal Brexit’

The prospect of leaving the European Union has acted to hamper much economic activity and the formulation of forward-looking plans over the past three years. The Institute has outlined the consequences arising from the various EU Exit scenarios that the UK may face, each of which will leave output...

World overview: Forecast summary

Publication date: 24 Jul 2019 | Publication type: National Institute Economic Review | Theme: Macroeconomics | NIESR Author(s): Naisbitt, B, Boshoff, J, Kara, A, Hurst, I, Lazarowicz, T, Lenoel, C, Liadze, I, Mao, X, Thamotheram, C, Whyte, K | Journal: National Institute Economic Review Issue 249 | Publisher: Sage Publications, London

Recent trends in global industrial production and trade show activity stalling since late last year. The pace of service sector activity has remained steadier. Tariff increases and trade disputes have contributed to the weakness in production and trade and have added uncertainty to the global...

Introduction: Economic Measurement

Innovation in economic measurement is fundamental to a better understanding of how our changing economy works and for whom. The ESCoE Conference on Economic Measurement is a new forum to promote research on economic measurement and increase dialogue between academic economists, national...

Measuring the other half: new measures of intangible investment from the ONS

Only half of investment by firms is in physical capital, such as buildings and machinery. The other half is in intangible assets, such as branding, software and training. This has been true for the past two decades or more in the UK, but only if you step beyond the measures in the National Accounts...

Cloud computing, cross-border data flows and new challenges for measurement in economics

When economists talk about ‘measurement’ they tend to refer to metrics that can capture changes in quantity, quality and distribution of goods and services. In this paper we argue that the digital transformation of the economy, particularly the rise of cloud computing as a general-purpose...

Distinguishing between imports for domestic use and for re-exports: a novel method illustrated for the Netherlands

Global trade in the 21st century is characterised by complex value chains. Successful exporters usually rely on quality imports, and exported goods cross borders many times before reaching their final consumer. This poses challenges to economic measurement as well as policymaking because it becomes...

Exploring the link between economic complexity and emergent economic activities

Recent studies have shown a strong link between the complexity of economies and their economic development. There remain gaps in our understanding of the mechanisms underpinning these links, in part because they are difficult to analyse with highly aggregated, official data sources that do not...

Measuring welfare beyond GDP

Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is often treated as shorthand for national economic well-being, even though it was never intended to be; it is a measure of (some) of the marketable output of the economy. This paper reviews several developments in measuring welfare beyond GDP that were recently...

The mysterious cross-country dispersion in mobile phone price trends

Mobile phones have been central to ICT innovation since the introduction of the smartphone and constant-quality prices are a barometer of their economic impact. Official consumer price indices (CPIs) indicate that impact differs wildly across countries: for the 2008–18 period, average annual rates...

Prospects for the UK economy: Forecast Summary

Economic growth has stalled and there is around a one-in-four chance that the economy is already in a technical recession. The outlook beyond October, when the United Kingdom is due to leave the European Union, is very murky indeed with the possibility of a severe downturn in the event of a...

Investment in ‘Global Britain’ – gain, retain … or risk economic pain?

Publication date: 17 Jul 2019 | Publication type: Economic Review Preview | NIESR Author(s): Hantzsche, A, Nguyen, D

This is a preview from the National Institute Economic Review, August 2019, no 249. In this box, prepared by NIESR's economists Arno Hantzsche and David Nguyen, we highlight the importance of reinvestments alongside new investment projects and shows that to bolster future welfare, policy...

NIESR Wage Tracker - July 2019

Publication date: 16 Jul 2019 | Publication type: NIESR Wage Tracker | NIESR Author(s): Hantzsche, A

Pay growth at 11-year high but further acceleration unlikely Figure 1: Average Weekly Earnings (3 months average year on year growth, per cent) Source: NIESR, ONS. Main points According to new ONS statistics published this morning, UK average weekly earnings (AWE) expanded by 3.6 per cent...

Changing Mindsets: Effectiveness trial

Publication date: 11 Jul 2019 | Publication type: Report | Theme: Education & Labour, Employment & Social policy | NIESR Author(s): Foliano, F, Rolfe, H, Buzzeo, J, Runge, J, Wilkinson, D. | Report to: Education Endowment Foundation

The Changing Mindsets project aimed to improve attainment outcomes at the end of primary school by teaching Year 6 pupils that their brain potential was not a fixed entity but could grow and change through effort exerted. The programme, delivered by Portsmouth University, taught pupils about the...

Embedding contextualisation in English and mathematics GCSE teaching

The pilot intervention ‘Embedding contextualisation in English and mathematics GCSE teaching’ trains English and maths teachers to use examples from real life and vocational contexts in their teaching to emphasise the relevance of studies to the future careers of students. The aim is to improve...

July 2019 GDP Tracker

Publication date: 10 Jul 2019 | Publication type: NIESR GDP Tracker | Theme: Macroeconomics | NIESR Author(s): Boshoff, J

UK economy narrowly avoids recession Please find the full commentary in attachment.

Structural reforms in Spain

Publication date: 8 Jul 2019 | Publication type: Report | Theme: Trade, Investment & Productivity | NIESR Author(s): Rincon-Aznar, A, Forth, J | External Author(s): Fernández de Guevara, J, Maudos, J, Molla, S, Perez-Garcia, F, Llano, C | Publisher: European Commission | Report to: European Commission, Directorate-General for Internal Market, Industry, Entrepreneurship and SMEs

The Spanish economy has been growing at over 3% since 2015, above the average for the EU and the euro area. Unemployment, although still 10 percentage points above the EU average, has fallen from a high of 26.1% in 2013 to 17.2% in 2017. Interest rates are at historical lows thanks to the expansive...

The Employment Gap in the North West

Publication date: 21 Jun 2019 | Publication type: Report | Theme: Education & Labour | NIESR Author(s): Speckesser, S, Espinoza, H | External Author(s): Bursnall, M

This report is part of the Youth Jobs Gap research series, which uses new Longitudinal Education Outcomes data to present new insights into disadvantaged young people’s transition from compulsory education into employment. The first three national reports have looked at NEET rates, higher education...

Estimating the impact of Traineeships

Traineeships are an education and training programme that provide young people aged 16-24 with an intensive period of work experience and work preparation training, as well as offering them support in improving their English and maths, to give them the best opportunity of entering an apprenticeship...

NIESR Wage Tracker - June 2019

Publication date: 11 Jun 2019 | Publication type: NIESR Wage Tracker | NIESR Author(s): Hantzsche, A

Public sector earnings growth provides a temporary boost to whole-economy wages Main points According to new ONS statistics published this morning, UK average weekly earnings (AWE) expanded by 3.1 per cent including bonuses (3.4 per cent excluding bonuses) in the three months to April...

Better Schools for All

Publication date: 11 Jun 2019 | Publication type: Report | Theme: Employment & Social policy | NIESR Author(s): Stokes, L | External Author(s): Bryson, A, Wilkinson, D

There is plenty of evidence to indicate that teacher quality matters for pupil attainment. But teachers do not work in a vacuum. They are employed to work in schools, usually under the direction of supervisors and a Head Teacher who, together with a governing board and officials in local and...

June 2019 GDP Tracker

Publication date: 10 Jun 2019 | Publication type: NIESR GDP Tracker | NIESR Author(s): Young, G

UK economy slows as stockpiling boost fades Please find the full commentary in attachment.

The Indeterminacy Agenda in Macroeconomics

This article surveys a subset of literature in macroeconomics which embraces the existence of multiple equilibria. This indeterminacy agenda in macroeconomics uses multiple-equilibrium models to integrate economics with psychology. Economists have long argued that business cycles are driven by...

Tax Policy for Innovation

A large number of countries around the world now provide some kind of tax incentive to encourage firms to undertake innovative activity. This paper presents the policy rationale for these incentives, discusses their design and potential effectiveness, and reviews the empirical evidence on their...

Some International Evidence for Keynesian Economics Without the Phillips Curve

Farmer and Nicolò (2018) show that the Farmer Monetary (FM)-Model outperforms the three-equation New-Keynesian (NK)-model in post war U.S. data. In this paper, we compare the marginal data density of the FM-model with marginal data densities for determinate and indeterminate versions of the NK-...

Teaching assistants, computers and classroom management

Many students still leave school without a good grasp of basic literacy, despite the negative implications for future educational and labour market outcomes. We evaluate how resources may be used within classrooms to reinforce the teaching of literacy. Specifically, teaching assistants are trained...

Promoting Ethnic and Religious Integration In Schools: A Review of Evidence

Publication date: 31 May 2019 | Publication type: Report | Theme: Employment & Social policy | NIESR Author(s): Manzoni, C, Rolfe, H | Report to: Department for Education

Religious and ethnic segregation in schools is an issue of concern for educationalists and policy makers because it has implications for equality and for inclusion and social cohesion. This report was commissioned by the Department for Education to provide evidence on how segregation might be...

Update: Modelling the short- and long-run impact of Brexit

Publication date: 29 May 2019 | Publication type: NiGEM Observations | Theme: Macroeconomics, Exiting the EU & Britain after Brexit | NIESR Author(s): Hantzsche, A

This NiGEM Observation presents updated estimates of the economic impact of different Brexit scenarios based on analyses recently published by NIESR and building on earlier work on EU withdrawal by the Institute (e.g. Pain and Young, 2004; Ebell et al., 2016). It provides an overview of the...

Summary of the NIESR Business Conditions Forum May 2019 - The impact of uncertainty on the UK economy

Publication date: 20 May 2019 | Publication type: Business Conditions Forum Summary | Theme: Macroeconomics | NIESR Author(s): Kara, A

The National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) hosted the first NIESR Business Conditions Forum (BCF) on 15th May 2019. The BCF is a quarterly meeting for chief economists/senior economists of major business and survey organisations, policy making institutions and NIESR with an...

Which skills contribute most to absorptive capacity, innovation and productivity performance? Evidence from the US and Western Europe

Publication date: 16 May 2019 | Publication type: Journal article/book/chapter | Theme: Trade, Investment & Productivity | NIESR Author(s): Rincon-Aznar, A | Journal: Economics of Innovation and New Technology No. Forthcoming | Publisher: Routledge, Taylor & Francis Group

NIESR Wage Tracker - May 2019

Publication date: 14 May 2019 | Publication type: NIESR Wage Tracker | NIESR Author(s): Hantzsche, A

Nominal pay growth dips temporarily but is expected to stabilise at around 3½ per cent in the second quarter of 2019 Main points According to new ONS statistics published this morning, UK average weekly earnings (AWE) expanded by 3.2 per cent including bonuses (3.3 per cent excluding...

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