Publications

Upstream regulation, Factor demand and Productivity: Cross-industry differences in OECD countries, 1975-2007

Publication date: 1 Dec 2019 | NIESR Author(s): Rincon-Aznar, A | External Author(s): Igna, I.A. | Journal: Information Economics and Policy No. 49 | Publisher: Elsevier, Oxford

Where is the money coming from?

Publication date: 29 Nov 2019 | Publication type: General Election Briefing | NIESR Author(s): Hantzsche, A, Young, G

The main political parties have meticulously set out costings of their spending plans for the next Parliament and how they would finance them if elected. This briefing focuses on: The fiscal rules adopted by the political parties. The underlying fiscal position and how it has changed since the...

The Fiscal Rules

Publication date: 29 Nov 2019 | Publication type: General Election Briefing | NIESR Author(s): Chadha, J S

The election campaign has focussed on the tax and spending plans of the main political parties, this brief outlines: The case for fiscal rules as part of the country’s strategy of macroeconomic management. The need for comprehensive reform of the process of setting fiscal policy. This brief...

Education policy priorities and a look into the Manifestos

Publication date: 27 Nov 2019 | Publication type: General Election Briefing | Theme: Education & Labour | NIESR Author(s): Boshoff, J, Espinoza, H, Lisauskaite, E, Speckesser, S, Xu, L

Overview Labour, Conservatives and Lib Dems have all pledged to increase the education budget. But we ask, from early years via schools to further and higher education: What can be done to make the education system more effective and fairer? How can outcomes across different levels of education be...

The Future Path of The Minimum Wage

Publication date: 26 Nov 2019 | Publication type: General Election Briefing | NIESR Author(s): Aitken, A, Hudson-Sharp, N, Runge, J

Labour and the Conservatives both plan historically high increases to the UK minimum wage, aiming to use the minimum wage as an important tool in raising living standards. This briefing focuses on: The current minimum wage structure and how the rates are determined; The future path of the National...

The Economic and Fiscal Impact of Brexit

Publication date: 25 Nov 2019 | Publication type: General Election Briefing | Theme: Macroeconomics | NIESR Author(s): Hantzsche, A, Young, G

Brexit dominates political debate and divides opinion. The main political parties have different positions on this issue, ranging from cancelling Brexit (Liberal Democrats) to seeking a ‘clean-break’ (Brexit Party). The Prime Minster wants to ‘get Brexit done’ on the terms of the deal negotiated...

Summary of the NIESR Business Conditions Forum November 2019 - International Trade

Publication date: 22 Nov 2019 | Publication type: Business Conditions Forum Summary | Theme: Macroeconomics

International Trade The meeting discussed latest trends in international trade. The discussions were centred around the following five questions: 1. How much has global trade slowed? 2. Is the slowdown structural? 3. What are the effects from China-US tariffs on UK? 4. What risks arise from the...

NIESR CPI Tracker - November 2019

Publication date: 13 Nov 2019 | Publication type: NIESR CPI Tracker | Theme: Macroeconomics | NIESR Author(s): Boshoff, J

Change to Energy Price Caps Impacts Inflation According to figures released this morning by the ONS, consumer price index inflation decreased to 1.5 per cent in the year to October 2019. Our new analysis of 129,752 locally-collected goods and services prices suggest that consumers benefitted from...

NIESR Wage Tracker - November 2019

Publication date: 12 Nov 2019 | Publication type: NIESR Wage Tracker | Theme: Macroeconomics | NIESR Author(s): Hantzsche, A

Uncertainty Taking Toll on Labour Market Main points According to new ONS statistics published this morning, UK average weekly earnings (AWE) expanded by 3.6 per cent (excluding and including bonuses) in the three months to September compared to the year before (figure 1). With CPI inflation at 1...

November 2019 GDP Tracker

Publication date: 11 Nov 2019 | Publication type: NIESR GDP Tracker | Theme: Macroeconomics | NIESR Author(s): Young, G

Output Stagnating After Mid-Year Rebound Please find the full commentary in the attachment

NIESR Briefing: Youth Rates: The National Minimum Wage for Younger Workers

Publication date: 5 Nov 2019 | Publication type: Topical Briefing | Theme: Employment & Social policy | NIESR Author(s): Hudson-Sharp, N, Manzoni, C, Runge, J

When advising government, the LPC’s main objective in setting the Youth Rates is: "to ensure that the NMW’s structure and the level of the youth rates enables young people to make a successful transition from education to employment, and to access roles which provide them with the work...

Understanding employers’ use of the National Minimum Wage youth rates

Right from their inception the minimum wage rates have included age-related bands intended to give young people protection in the labour market. Initially there were only two age bands, 18-21 and 22+. With the introduction of the National Living Wage in 2016 there are now four age bands and an...

National Institute Economic Review 250th Edition - Table of Contents

Publication date: 30 Oct 2019 | Publication type: National Institute Economic Review | Journal: National Institute Economic Review Issue 250 | Publisher: Sage Publications, London

Forecast Summaries The UK Economy: Forecast Summary The UK Economy Prospects for the UK Economy Arno Hantzsche and Garry Young Forecast Summaries The World Economy: Forecast Summary The UK Economy The Economic Impact of Prime Minister Johnson's New Brexit Deal Arno...

Beyond Brexit: a programme for UK reform

We not only live in interesting times but also dangerous ones. The weaknesses of the post-war consensus on macroeconomic control was laid bare by Dow’s (1964) magisterial analysis and the subsequent implosion of demand management in the 1970s (see Blackaby, 1978; and Britton, 1991). It is becoming...

Introduction to National Institute Economic Review no 250

Publication date: 30 Oct 2019 | Publication type: National Institute Economic Review | Theme: Macroeconomics, Exiting the EU & Britain after Brexit | NIESR Author(s): Bidder, R | External Author(s): Llewellyn, J, Greenstock, J, Jones, R, Gowers, A, Llewellyn, P, Greenstock, N, Holtham, G, Scuoler, T | Journal: National Institute Economic Review Issue 250 | Publisher: Sage Publications, London

Regardless of the particular form that Brexit ultimately takes, the UK faces an unprecedented set of political, economic, and social challenges. While the causes are many and complex, they amount to a crisis of confidence and popular trust that has overturned the normal logic of political practice...

Maintaining stable macroeconomic conditions

Publication date: 30 Oct 2019 | Publication type: National Institute Economic Review | Theme: Macroeconomics, Exiting the EU & Britain after Brexit | External Author(s): Jones, R, Llewellyn, J | Journal: National Institute Economic Review Issue 250 | Publisher: Sage Publications, London

The UK economy faces more than usually uncertain times. Outside the European Union, and in an increasingly challenging global environment characterised by ageing populations, climate change, populism, protectionism, and more, the country needs to chart a new course. This may well require...

Supporting dynamic economic adjustment

Publication date: 30 Oct 2019 | Publication type: National Institute Economic Review | Theme: Macroeconomics, Exiting the EU & Britain after Brexit | External Author(s): Martin, J | Journal: National Institute Economic Review Issue 250 | Publisher: Sage Publications, London

Economic policymaking in the UK has historically focussed more on the demand side than on the supply side of the economy. Yet it is on the supply side – the way in which an economy adapts to change while growing productive capacity on a sustainable basis – that medium- to long-term economic...

Developing trade

Publication date: 30 Oct 2019 | Publication type: National Institute Economic Review | Theme: Macroeconomics, Exiting the EU & Britain after Brexit | External Author(s): Vines, D, Gretton, P, Williamson, A | Journal: National Institute Economic Review Issue 250 | Publisher: Sage Publications, London

The UK faces no easy options in determining how to develop its approach to international trade post-Brexit. If it finally decides to leave the European Customs Union and Single Market, it faces the possibility either of simply crashing out of the EU without a deal; trying to form market-access...

Developing trade in services

Publication date: 30 Oct 2019 | Publication type: National Institute Economic Review | Theme: Macroeconomics, Exiting the EU & Britain after Brexit | External Author(s): Lautenberg, A | Journal: National Institute Economic Review Issue 250 | Publisher: Sage Publications, London

Services are simultaneously the most important sector of the UK economy and the sector facing the biggest challenge as a result of Brexit. The prospective departure from the European Single Market reduces the UK to the status of ‘3rd country’ in respect of services. Accessing the internal market...

Reorienting foreign policy

Publication date: 30 Oct 2019 | Publication type: National Institute Economic Review | Theme: Macroeconomics, Exiting the EU & Britain after Brexit | External Author(s): Greenstock, J | Journal: National Institute Economic Review Issue 250 | Publisher: Sage Publications, London

After Brexit, the UK must show that it has a voice. It will need to re-earn international respect, and in particular establish the concept of a ‘global Britain’ on the basis of performance, not rhetoric. That means re-establishing a strong network of relationships around the world in support of its...

Updating security and defence policy

Publication date: 30 Oct 2019 | Publication type: National Institute Economic Review | Theme: Macroeconomics, Exiting the EU & Britain after Brexit | External Author(s): Grant, M | Journal: National Institute Economic Review Issue 250 | Publisher: Sage Publications, London

Threats to the security of the UK are evolving with the changing nature of conflict and balance of power in the world. They are multiple and fragmented, and domestic and online as well as overseas in nature: principally state-based threats such as posed by Russian activity; terrorism; cyber-attacks...

Formulating industrial policy

Alongside the challenge of maintaining economic competitiveness in the face of great uncertainty, Brexit brings an opportunity for the government to set out a new industrial strategy. The case for doing so rests on the need to address areas of persistent structural weakness in the UK economy,...

Securing decarbonisation and growth

Publication date: 30 Oct 2019 | Publication type: National Institute Economic Review | Theme: Macroeconomics, Exiting the EU & Britain after Brexit | External Author(s): Zenghelis, D | Journal: National Institute Economic Review Issue 250 | Publisher: Sage Publications, London

The need to decarbonise the economy in order to slow the pace of climate change is now recognised as one of the most pressing international policy challenges. While the UK cannot by itself materially affect global climate change, it has an opportunity to play an influential role, both by persuading...

Improving infrastructure

Infrastructure investment can substantially increase a nation’s capital stock and thereby boost productive, or supplyside, potential. It can also be useful as a tool in macroeconomic stabilisation, while public spending on quality infrastructure projects has been shown to have significantly greater...

Redesigning housing policy

Publication date: 30 Oct 2019 | Publication type: National Institute Economic Review | Theme: Macroeconomics, Exiting the EU & Britain after Brexit | NIESR Author(s): Barker, K | Journal: National Institute Economic Review Issue 250 | Publisher: Sage Publications, London

Discussion of the UK’s housing crisis is of long date, and tends to focus on a simple story about a mismatch in housing supply and demand and the consequent need to build more homes. Yet the reality is more complex with multiple sub-plots including social housing, stress in the private rented...

Effective devolution

Publication date: 30 Oct 2019 | Publication type: National Institute Economic Review | Theme: Macroeconomics, Exiting the EU & Britain after Brexit | NIESR Author(s): Armstrong, A | Journal: National Institute Economic Review Issue 250 | Publisher: Sage Publications, London

Brexit creates deep challenges for the UK’s structure of governance; not least concerning the degree and manner in which powers are devolved within one of the most centralised countries in the world. Departing from the EU is likely to exacerbate regional inequalities and possibly social divide,...

Improving governance

Publication date: 30 Oct 2019 | Publication type: National Institute Economic Review | Theme: Macroeconomics, Exiting the EU & Britain after Brexit | External Author(s): Donnelly, M | Journal: National Institute Economic Review Issue 250 | Publisher: Sage Publications, London

Government post-Brexit will face sustained and difficult challenges as the UK adjusts to its new situation. Yet these challenges risk being exacerbated by fundamental changes in UK political debate that are affecting the perceived legitimacy and effectiveness of the system and structures of...

Reducing inequalities

A backlash against numerous inequalities – and in particular against perceived unfairness in society – is a significant driver of the UK’s current political malaise. Addressing inequalities between income groups, regions and generations will thus be key to re-establishing faith in government and...

The economic impact of Prime Minister Johnson's New Brexit Deal

Publication date: 30 Oct 2019 | Publication type: National Institute Economic Review | Theme: Macroeconomics, Exiting the EU & Britain after Brexit | NIESR Author(s): Hantzsche, A, Young, G | Journal: National Institute Economic Review Issue 250 | Publisher: Sage Publications, London

On 17 October 2019, the UK government and its EU counterparts concluded a renegotiation of the previous withdrawal agreement and political declaration which sets out the framework for their future relationship. The government hoped that this would enable the UK to leave the EU on 31 October 2019...

Prospects for the UK economy: Forecast Summary

The economic outlook is clouded by significant economic and political uncertainty and depends critically on the United Kingdom’s trading relationships after Brexit. Domestic economic weakness is further amplified by slowing global demand. We would not expect economic activity to be boosted by the...

World overview: Forecast summary

Publication date: 30 Oct 2019 | Publication type: National Institute Economic Review | Theme: Macroeconomics | NIESR Author(s): Naisbitt, B, Boshoff, J, Hurst, I, Kara, A, Lenoel, C, Liadze, I, Mao, X, Thamotheram, C, Whyte, K | Journal: National Institute Economic Review Issue 250 | Publisher: Sage Publications, London

Increases in tariffs and uncertainty about both future tariff impositions and their potential implications for production activity have continued to have negative effects on global trade and industrial production. Several central banks, facing below target inflation, have loosened monetary policy...

Could a fiscal boost raise inflation in the Euro Area?

Publication date: 23 Oct 2019 | Publication type: Economic Review Preview | Theme: Macroeconomics | NIESR Author(s): Lenoel, C

This is a preview from the National Institute Economic Review, November 2019, no 250. The issue of whether fiscal and monetary policy should be coordinated is a hotly debated topic in the Euro Area. In September, the ECB cut the deposit interest rate and announced a new Quantitative Easing...

The (in)effectiveness of the latest round of ECB asset purchases

Publication date: 23 Oct 2019 | Publication type: Economic Review Preview | Theme: Macroeconomics | NIESR Author(s): Young, G | External Author(s): Sanchez Juanino, P

This is a preview from the National Institute Economic Review, November 2019, no 250. On 12 September 2019, the ECB Governing Council announced a comprehensive package of stimulatory measures in response to a weaker outlook for growth and inflation and a concern that inflation expectations were...

What does leadership look like in schools and does it matter for school performance?

We consider the role played by school leaders in improving pupil attainment, going beyond previous studies by exploring the leadership roles of deputy and assistant heads and classroom-based teachers with additional leadership responsibilities. Using panel data for state-funded secondary schools in...

Below the Aggregate: A Sectoral Account of the UK Productivity Puzzle

Publication date: 18 Oct 2019 | Publication type: NIESR Discussion Paper | Theme: Trade, Investment & Productivity | NIESR Author(s): Riley, R, Rincon-Aznar, A, Samek, L | JEL Classification: E22, E23, L60, L70, L80, L90, O47 | NIESR discussion paper number: 508

We analyse new industry-level data to re-examine the UK productivity puzzle. We carry out an accounting exercise that allows us to distinguish general macroeconomic patterns from sector trends and idiosyncrasies, providing a roadmap for anyone interested in explaining the puzzle. We focus on the UK...

The evolution of tax implicit value judgements, redistribution and income inequality in the UK: 1968 to 2015

An issue of interest in the literature that explores the drivers of inequality is the distributional bearing of tax and transfer policy, where an important theme concerns changes in the relative treatment of alternative population subgroups. We develop an empirical approach for quantifying the...

A Century of High Frequency UK Macroeconomic Statistics: A Data Inventory

This paper provides an inventory of the available macroeconomic statistics in the UK for the last hundred years or so. The focus is on documenting the higher frequency (daily, monthly and quarterly) macroeconomic data that are available after the World War 1, rather than longer run annual time...

NIESR Wage Tracker - October 2019

Publication date: 15 Oct 2019 | Publication type: NIESR Wage Tracker | Theme: Macroeconomics

Labour market weathering an increasingly difficult economic environment Main points According to new ONS statistics published this morning, UK average weekly earnings (AWE) expanded by 3.8 per cent (excluding and including bonuses) in the three months to August compared to the year before (...

Renewing our Monetary Vows: Open Letters to the Governor of the Bank of England

Publication date: 15 Oct 2019 | Publication type: NIESR Occasional Paper | NIESR Author(s): Chadha, J S, Riley, R | External Author(s): Barwell, R, Yates, T, Ward, K, Pill, H, Mares, A, Grady, M, Groth, C, Nelson, B, Giles, C, Mizen, P Issue 58 | Publisher: NIESR, London

Please see table of contents here You can download the mobi file here for use on a Kindle; the pdf can be saved and read on an iPad using the iBooks app. To order a paperback copy, please see here. Over the past 20 years, considerable progress has been made in the science of monetary policy. This...

October 2019 GDP Tracker

Publication date: 10 Oct 2019 | Publication type: NIESR GDP Tracker | NIESR Author(s): Young, G

GDP DATA BETTER THAN EXPECTED Figure 1 - UK GDP growth (3 months on previous 3 months, per cent) Please find the full commentary in attachment

Total Reward and Pensions in the UK by Occupation in the Public and Private Sectors

Over the last 10 years the relative value of public and private sector remuneration packages, including pensions, has changed markedly. This report reviews a comprehensive measure of Total Reward (TR) which includes not just pay, but pensions and other ‘benefits in kind’, evaluates it as the...

NIESR Occasional Papers, 1942-2004

Publication date: 2 Oct 2019 | Publication type: NIESR Occasional Paper

From 1942 to 2004, NIESR produced 57 Occasional Papers. Over the years, subjects covered pension reform, productivity, migration, education and more. On Tuesday 15th October 2019, we will be relaunching the series - watch this space! NIESR Occasional papers Number Year Author Title...

NIESR Briefing: Industry and Regional Effects of a No-Deal Brexit

Publication date: 12 Sep 2019 | Publication type: Topical Briefing | NIESR Author(s): Hantzsche, A

Ever since EU exit has started featuring in the public debate, NIESR has contributed analyses of the long-run economic impact of different types of Brexit, including the deal proposed by the government in November 2018, a customs union deal and no deal. Since the EU referendum, NIESR has...

NIESR Wage Tracker - September 2019

Publication date: 10 Sep 2019 | Publication type: NIESR Wage Tracker | NIESR Author(s): Hantzsche, A

Strong earnings data driven by July bonuses and public sector pay but further pick-up unlikely Figure 1 – Average weekly earnings growth (per cent per annum) Main points According to new ONS statistics published this morning, UK average weekly earnings (AWE) expanded by 3.8 per cent...

September 2019 GDP Tracker

Publication date: 9 Sep 2019 | Publication type: NIESR GDP Tracker | NIESR Author(s): Young, G

Economic growth resumes for now Figure 1 - UK GDP growth (3 months on previous 3 months, per cent) Please find the full commentary in the attachment

The macroeconomics of fiscal give-aways

Publication date: 2 Sep 2019 | Publication type: Economic Review Preview | Theme: Macroeconomics

In this box, which we published in our latest Review, NIER No. 249 August 2019, we evaluate the macroeconomic effects of expansionary fiscal policy measures on the UK economy. We consider two fiscal packages, one based on Labour Party policy and one based on some of the policies put forward...

Brexit assumptions and alternative scenarios

Publication date: 29 Aug 2019 | Publication type: Economic Review Preview | Theme: Exiting the EU & Britain after Brexit

This concise summary aims to illustrate the assumptions underpinning our view on the aggregate impact of a No-Deal Brexit on the UK economy, which we published in our latest Review, NIER No. 249 August 2019.

Summary of the NIESR Business Conditions Forum August 2019 – Is the labour market turning?

Publication date: 20 Aug 2019 | Publication type: Business Conditions Forum Summary | Theme: Macroeconomics | NIESR Author(s): Kara, A

National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) hosted the Business Conditions Forum (BCF) on 14th August. The aim of the BCF is to have informed and analytical discussions of data and surveys to better understand the current state of the UK economy. The discussions are held under...

NIESR Briefing: Overview of evidence on economic impacts of EU immigration

Publication date: 19 Aug 2019 | Publication type: Topical Briefing | Theme: Exiting the EU & Britain after Brexit | NIESR Author(s): Runge, J

As part of a research report on UK Public Attitudes to the Economic Impacts of EU Immigration, published by NIESR and Birkbeck, University of London, in October 2018, we reviewed the existing literature on the economic impacts of EU immigration. We have updated this with the most recent evidence...

NIESR Briefing: Overview of evidence on UK public attitudes to immigration

Publication date: 19 Aug 2019 | Publication type: Topical Briefing | Theme: Exiting the EU & Britain after Brexit | NIESR Author(s): Runge, J

OVERVIEW As part of a research report on UK Public Attitudes to Immigration, published by NIESR and Birkbeck, University of London, in October 2018, we reviewed the existing literature on the topic. We have updated this with the most recent evidence thanks to the support of the ESRC through its...

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