The short-term economic impact of leaving the EU

Publication date: 10 May 2016 | Publication type: National Institute Economic Review | Theme: Macroeconomics | NIESR Author(s): Carreras, O; Ebell, M; Hurst, I; Kirby, S; Meaning, J; Piggott, R; Warren, J | Journal: National Institute Economic Review Issue 236 | Publisher: Sage Publications, London

This note presents a simulation exercise designed to give a counterfactual of a world in which the UK votes to leave the EU. We discuss the short-run developments that are most likely to affect the UK economy in the immediate aftermath of a leave vote. We do this by introducing a range of shocks to our global econometric model designed to capture the effects of the UK leaving the EU. These shocks are layered together with a series of more long-run structural changes which are discussed by Ebell and Warren, in this Review.

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