The short-term economic impact of leaving the EU

This note presents a simulation exercise designed to give a counterfactual of a world in which the UK votes to leave the EU. We discuss the short-run developments that are most likely to affect the UK economy in the immediate aftermath of a leave vote. We do this by introducing a range of shocks to our global econometric model designed to capture the effects of the UK leaving the EU. These shocks are layered together with a series of more long-run structural changes which are discussed by Ebell and Warren, in this Review.