Trade and the unequal race to the Covid-19 vaccine

Key points

• Until an effective vaccine is available on a widespread basis, restrictions on international travel will continue to restrain the global economic recovery, reducing world trade this year by at least 2¾ per cent.
• Given the uneven distribution of vaccine access worldwide, many low-income and lower-middle-income countries may need to retain restrictions on mobility well into 2022 to prevent renewed virus outbreaks. Economic growth will suffer in all countries as a result, especially in those that cannot secure sufficient doses of vaccine.
• Our analysis highlights the importance of a coordinated and widespread rollout of the Covid-19 vaccine to enable the revitalisation of services trade.