The UK Economy - forecast summary

Publication date: 2 Nov 2016 | Publication type: National Institute Economic Review | Theme: Macroeconomics | NIESR Author(s): Kirby, S; Carreras, O; Meaning, J; Piggott, R; Warren, J | Journal: National Institute Economic Review Issue 238 | Publisher: Sage Publications, London

• The economy will grow 2 per cent in 2016 before slowing to 1.4 per cent in 2017: with the triggering of Article 50 there are downside risks to next year’s outlook.
• Consumer price inflation will accelerate, peaking at around 4 per cent in the second half of 2017, and this will impact on real disposable income
• The Monetary Policy Committee is expected to look through this near-term inflation and hold Bank Rate at ¼ per cent until 2019.
• Sterling is expected to remain at around $1.22 and €1.11 this year and next.

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