The UK Economy - forecast summary

Publication date: 1 Feb 2017 | Publication type: National Institute Economic Review | NIESR Author(s): Kirby, S; Carreras, O; Piggott, R; Warren, J | Journal: National Institute Economic Review Issue 239 | Publisher: Sage Publications, London
  • GDP growth is expected to slow from 2 per cent in 2016 to 1.7 per cent in 2017 and 1.9 per cent in 2018. 
  • We forecast consumer price inflation to average 3.3 per cent in 2017 and 2.9 per cent in 2018.
  • We expect the MPC to ‘look through’ this temporary period of above target inflation.
  • The new fiscal mandate is for the government to reduce cyclically adjusted public sector net borrowing to below 2 per cent of GDP by 2020–21. We expect the government to meet this target with relative ease.