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Is the UK Productivity Slowdown Unprecedented?
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External Authors
Crafts, N
Mills, T C
Related Themes
Productivity, Trade, and Regional EconomiesTags
JEL Code
C22, N13, N14, O47
Journal
National Institute Economic Review
Publisher
Cambridge University Press
External Resources
Issue
251
We estimate trend UK labour productivity growth using a Hodrick-Prescott filter method. We use the results to compare downturns where the economy fell below its pre-existing trend. We find that the current productivity slowdown has resulted in productivity being 19.7 per cent below the pre-2008 trend path in 2018. This is nearly double the previous worst productivity shortfall ten years after the start of a downturn. On this criterion the slowdown is unprecedented in the past 250 years. We conjecture that this reflects a combination of adverse circumstances, namely, a financial crisis, a weakening impact of ICT and impending Brexit.
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