- Home
- Publications
- Update: Modelling The Short- And Long-Run Impact Of Brexit
Update: Modelling the Short- and Long-Run Impact of Brexit
This NiGEM Observation presents updated estimates of the economic impact of different Brexit scenarios based on analyses recently published by NIESR and building on earlier work on EU withdrawal by the Institute (e.g. Pain and Young, 2004; Ebell et al., 2016). It provides an overview of the assumptions we made when modelling different types of Brexit outcomes, namely continued EU membership, a soft Brexit (continued membership of the EU single market and customs union, the baseline assumption underlying recent NIESR forecasts), a UK-EU customs union, and an orderly no deal Brexit. References to recent more comprehensive reports by NIESR motivating the economic rationale behind the modelling assumptions in more detail are included.
The Observation proceeds by first focussing on the long-run economic impact of different Brexit scenarios. It then discusses the options for policymakers to respond to a no-deal Brexit in the short run presenting scenarios in which policy reacts in an accommodative way.
Related Blog Posts
What is the Current State of the UK Economy?
Paula Bejarano Carbo
Stephen Millard
26 Feb 2024
7 min read
CPI Inflation Rose in December 2023, But is Likely to Fall Below 3 per cent by May
Huw Dixon
17 Jan 2024
7 min read
Related Projects
Related News
Why it’s not worth worrying that the UK has technically entered a recession
26 Feb 2024
4 min read
1.2 million UK Households Insolvent This Year as a Direct Result of Higher Mortgage Repayments
22 Jun 2023
2 min read
The Key Steps to Ensuring Normal Service is Quickly Resumed in the Economy
13 Feb 2023
4 min read
Related Publications
UK Economy on the Road to Recovery in 2024 Following the Mild Recession
13 Mar 2024
GDP Trackers