The War on Trade: Beggar Thy Neighbour – Beggar Thyself?

This is a preview from the National Institute Economic Review, May 2018, no 244.

This Box, prepared by NIESR Principal Economist Iana Liadze and NIESR Senior Economist Arno Hantzsche, analyses who wins and who loses from erecting new barriers to trade and focuses in particular on the effect of tariff and non-tariff trade barriers on the international price system.

"Our analysis demonstrates that the share of trade in world GDP would fall by about 1 percentage point over a 5-year period, relative to baseline, if import prices were to rise substantially. To show the impact of the shock on a wide range of countries, we have chosen economies with differing characteristics: developed and developing; with different levels of openness; as well as varying degrees of trade linkages with the US".