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Global Industrial Production and Trade Show Activity Stalling Since Late Last Year
Our World Economic Forecast, taken from the National Institute Economic Review
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Pub. Date
23 July, 2019
Pub. Type
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Authors
Dr Xuxin Mao
Dr Kemar Whyte
External Authors
Kara, Amit
Lazarowicz, Thomas
Related Themes
Macro-Economic Modelling and ForecastingJournal
National Institute Economic Review, No. 1, Vol. 249
Publisher
Sage, London
External Resources
Key points
- Recent trends in global industrial production and trade show activity stalling since late last year. The pace of service sector activity has remained steadier.
- Tariff increases and trade disputes have contributed to the weakness in production and trade and have added uncertainty to the global economic outlook.
- In response to weaker production activity and continued low inflation, central banks in many economies have either loosened monetary policy or positioned themselves to do so, which has been reflected in financial markets.
- Taking these forces into account, we have reduced our forecast for global GDP growth this year slightly to 3¼ per cent. This is likely to be, by a small margin, the slowest annual growth for a decade. We expect output growth to show a slight pick-up in 2020 to 3½ per cent.
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