The World Economy - Forecast Summary

Publication date: 10 May 2017 | Publication type: National Institute Economic Review | Theme: Macroeconomics | NIESR Author(s): Hacche, G; Lenoel, C; Liadze, I; Piggott, R | External Author(s): Carreras, O, Kirby, S, Warren, L | Journal: National Institute Economic Review Issue 240 | Publisher: Sage Publications, London
  • Global output growth is forecast to pick up from 3.1 per cent in 2016 to 3.3 per cent in 2017 and 3.6 per cent in 2018 – a slightly stronger acceleration than expected in February. Projected medium-term growth is still well below pre-crisis rates.
  • A striking feature of the current conjuncture is unusual uncertainty, particularly about the interpretation of recent ‘soft’ data showing increased business and consumer confidence in the advanced economies, US economic policies, and policies in Europe in the face of national elections in the largest economies.
  • There are associated risks to our growth forecast on both the upside and the downside. Of particular concern are the downside risks that could derail the gathering momentum of global growth. These include the danger of a shift to protectionist trade policies.

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