World overview: Forecast summary

| Publication date: 6 Feb 2020 | Theme: Macroeconomics | NIESR Author(s): Naisbitt, B; Boshoff, J; Hurst, I; Kara, A; Lenoel, C; Liadze, I; Mao, X; Thamotheram, C; Whyte, K | Journal: National Institute Economic Review Issue 251 | Publisher: Cambridge University Press, Cambridge
  • Global economic growth slowed again last year as increases in tariffs and uncertainty about future tariff impositions and their implications for production activity continued to have negative effects on industrial production, especially in the advanced economies, and global trade.
  • With a weaker global economic outlook and continued low inflation, several central banks loosened monetary policy last year and these actions should provide some tailwinds to support global growth this year and into next.
  • Despite the stalling activity in global industrial production and trade, the pace of service sector activity has remained robust.
  • Our forecasts for global GDP growth this year of 3 per cent, effectively the same as last year, and 3¼ per cent next year are unchanged on three months ago. We expect only a very gradual pick-up in activity as the year progresses, with headwinds to growth and fragility remaining a feature of the global economy.

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