Macroeconomics

Publication date: 5 Jun 2019 | Publication type: NIESR Discussion Paper | Theme: Macroeconomics | Authors: Farmer, R | JEL classification: D5, E40 | NIESR discussion paper number: 507
This article surveys a subset of literature in macroeconomics which embraces the existence of multiple equilibria. This indeterminacy agenda in macroeconomics uses multiple-equilibrium models to integrate economics with psychology. Economists have long argued that business cycles are driven by...
Publication date: 5 Jun 2019 | Publication type: NIESR Discussion Paper | Theme: Macroeconomics | Authors: Farmer, R | External authors: Nicolo, G | JEL classification: E3, E4, F0 | NIESR discussion paper number: 505
Farmer and Nicolò (2018) show that the Farmer Monetary (FM)-Model outperforms the three-equation New-Keynesian (NK)-model in post war U.S. data. In this paper, we compare the marginal data density of the FM-model with marginal data densities for determinate and indeterminate versions of the NK-...
Publication date: 29 May 2019 | Publication type: NiGEM Observations | Theme: Macroeconomics, Exiting the EU & Britain after Brexit | Authors: Hantzsche, A
This NiGEM Observation presents updated estimates of the economic impact of different Brexit scenarios based on analyses recently published by NIESR and building on earlier work on EU withdrawal by the Institute (e.g. Pain and Young, 2004; Ebell et al., 2016). It provides an overview of the...
Publication date: 20 May 2019 | Publication type: Business Conditions Forum Summary | Theme: Macroeconomics | Authors: Kara, A
  The National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) hosted the first NIESR Business Conditions Forum (BCF) on 15th May 2019. The BCF is a quarterly meeting for chief economists/senior economists of major business and survey organisations, policy making institutions and NIESR with an...
| Theme: Macroeconomics
In normal times, economic growth is positively skewed, and in recessions negative skew emerges, which is know as vulnerability. This project looks at whether it's possible to use sentiment analysis of the words used in business news to help make real-time probabilistic forecasts about the UK’s...
Publication date: 8 May 2019 | Publication type: Report | Theme: Macroeconomics, Exiting the EU & Britain after Brexit | Authors: Hantzsche, A, Young, G
In the wake of Parliament’s rejection of the proposed Brexit deal, there have been discussions between the Government and the Labour Party on a customs union as the basis for the future relationship between the United Kingdom and the European Union. This option also gained substantial support in...
Publication date: 3 May 2019 | Publication type: NIESR Discussion Paper | Theme: Macroeconomics | External authors: Kwon, Y | JEL classification: E62, E63, H63 | NIESR discussion paper number: 504
We examine the welfare effects of GDP-indexed bonds in a New Keynesian DSGE model. We add to a literature showing that the issuance of GDP-indexed bond may help stabilise public debt and so give more room for countercyclical fiscal policy, by conducting a careful general equilibrium welfare...
| Theme: Macroeconomics
The interwar era was the most turbulent in modern British economic history, involving mass unemployment, major recessions and spells of inflation and deflation. What caused this turbulence? While economic historians have focused on a long list of factors, we investigate a single unifying...
| Theme: Macroeconomics
In this project, we plan to produce a new chronology of UK business cycles on an annual basis between 1700 and 2000 and on a quarterly basis between 1920 and 2000.
| Theme: Macroeconomics
The objective of this study is to review which turning point indicators are used by leading statistical and economic institutions overseas using a targeted survey. We will look at the methodologies, scope and publication frequencies of such indicators. This review will then serve as a basis for the...

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