Macroeconomics

| Theme: Macroeconomics
Using a new dataset on sector-level earnings, pay settlements and cross-sectoral employment flows in the United Kingdom, and focussing in particular on the private and the public sector, this project aims to address three important questions: 1) Which sector leads and which sector follows in terms...
Publication date: 25 Apr 2019 | Publication type: National Institute Economic Review | Theme: Macroeconomics | Authors: Naisbitt, B, Boshoff, J, Hurst, I, Kara, A, Lennard, J, Lenoel, C, Liadze, I, Lazarowicz, T, Thamotheram, C | Journal: National Institute Economic Review Issue 248 | Publisher: Sage Publications, London
Economic activity showed a marked slowing in growth in several countries during the second half of last year. The key issue for the forecast concerns to what extent this slowdown may presage a more widespread and deeper slowing in economic growth. Our central view continues to be that global...
Publication date: 25 Apr 2019 | Publication type: National Institute Economic Review | Theme: Macroeconomics | Authors: Hantzsche, A, Young, G | Journal: National Institute Economic Review Issue 248 | Publisher: Sage Publications, London
The main development since our last forecast is that the United Kingdom’s exit from the European Union did not take place on 29 March as had been planned. Instead, the exit date has been pushed back to 31 October 2019, with the possibility of leaving earlier if some way around the existing...
Publication date: 25 Apr 2019 | Publication type: National Institute Economic Review | Theme: Macroeconomics | Authors: Naisbitt, B, Boshoff, J, Hurst, I, Kara, A, Lennard, J, Liadze, I, Lazarowicz, T, Thamotheram, C | Journal: National Institute Economic Review Issue 248 | Publisher: Sage Publications, London
Recent data indicates that the global output growth cycle has peaked. We expect global GDP growth to continue, but at a slightly slower pace than in the past two years. Tariff increases and trade disputes have contributed to slowing growth and have added uncertainty to the global economic outlook....
Publication date: 25 Apr 2019 | Publication type: National Institute Economic Review | Theme: Macroeconomics | Authors: Hantzsche, A, Young, G | Journal: National Institute Economic Review Issue 248 | Publisher: Sage Publications, London
The UK’s future relationship with the European Union (EU) remains undecided. Brexit-related uncertainty has led to investment plans being deferred and increased stockbuilding. Under our main-case forecast, based on a ‘soft’ Brexit and continuing uncertainty, GDP growth continues at around 1½ per...
Publication date: 15 Apr 2019 | Publication type: Economic Review Preview | Theme: Macroeconomics | Authors: Lenoel, C
This is a preview from the National Institute Economic Review, May 2019, no 248. Sustained low investment constitutes a major area of concern for the UK economy, with consequences for living standards in the longer term. In this box, prepared by NIESR Senior Economist Cyrille Lenoel, we review the...
Publication date: 10 Apr 2019 | Publication type: NIESR GDP Tracker | Theme: Macroeconomics | Authors: Young, G
  The UK economy is on course to grow by 0.4% in the first quarter of 2019.     Main points   The UK economy is on course to grow by 0.4% in the first quarter of 2019 and, if current trends continue, by 0.3% in the second quarter (figure 1).  According to new ONS statistics published this morning...
Publication date: 6 Mar 2019 | Publication type: Policy Paper | Theme: Macroeconomics | Authors: Chadha, J S, Hantzsche, A, Kara, A, Young, G | Report number: 11
  Political deadlock and constitutional crisis does not necessarily spell economic doom.  The UK economy is at full employment and in desperate need of investment to enhance productive capacity.  But waiting for the outcome of this tortuous EU Exit process has produced an economic delay.  Output is...
Publication date: 6 Feb 2019 | Publication type: National Institute Economic Review | Theme: Macroeconomics | Authors: Chadha, J S | External authors: Aidt, T, Sabourian, H | JEL classification: P16; D71; C72 | Journal: National Institute Economic Review Issue 247 | Publisher: Sage Publications, London
Unanimity on the question of UK exit from the EU is not within reach, but this does not mean that the House of Commons or the population at large can not find a way out of the current Brexit impasse that is fair and legitimate. We discuss different voting procedures which satisfy some important...

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